| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.995428577289699 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 873127 | 655362 | 217765 |
| 3 | 1107897 | 872131.504133491 | 235765.495866509 |
| 4 | 1555964 | 1106819.21625789 | 449144.78374211 |
| 5 | 1671159 | 1553910.76933539 | 117248.230664612 |
| 6 | 1493308 | 1670623.0087756 | -177315.008775597 |
| 7 | 2957796 | 1494118.58185799 | 1463677.41814201 |
| 8 | 2638691 | 2951104.91181015 | -312413.911810151 |
| 9 | 1305669 | 2640119.17605146 | -1334450.17605146 |
| 10 | 1280496 | 1311769.33584057 | -31273.335840567 |
| 11 | 921900 | 1280638.96363769 | -358738.963637688 |
| 12 | 867888 | 923539.947445443 | -55651.9474454432 |
| 13 | 652586 | 868142.408576425 | -215556.408576425 |
| 14 | 913831 | 653571.399461517 | 260259.600538483 |
| 15 | 1108544 | 912641.243351524 | 195902.756648476 |
| 16 | 1555827 | 1107648.44568925 | 448178.554310753 |
| 17 | 1699283 | 1553778.18637855 | 145504.813621446 |
| 18 | 1509458 | 1698617.83599055 | -189159.835990553 |
| 19 | 3268975 | 1510322.72957012 | 1758652.27042988 |
| 20 | 2425016 | 3260935.45707143 | -835919.457071434 |
| 21 | 1312703 | 2428837.34119004 | -1116134.34119004 |
| 22 | 1365498 | 1317805.32187506 | 47692.678124937 |
| 23 | 934453 | 1365279.9766081 | -430826.976608105 |
| 24 | 775019 | 936422.492225077 | -161403.492225077 |
| 25 | 651142 | 775756.84358988 | -124614.84358988 |
| 26 | 843192 | 651711.667126027 | 191480.332873973 |
| 27 | 1146766 | 842316.662457724 | 304449.337542276 |
| 28 | 1652601 | 1145374.23338422 | 507226.766615777 |
| 29 | 1465906 | 1650282.25203982 | -184376.25203982 |
| 30 | 1652734 | 1466748.86178582 | 185985.138214185 |
| 31 | 2922334 | 1651883.78331539 | 1270450.21668461 |
| 32 | 2702805 | 2916526.23502714 | -213721.235027141 |
| 33 | 1458956 | 2703782.01010748 | -1244826.01010748 |
| 34 | 1410363 | 1464646.62589298 | -54283.6258929789 |
| 35 | 1019279 | 1410611.1534002 | -391332.153400205 |
| 36 | 936574 | 1021067.94469332 | -84493.9446933247 |
| 37 | 708917 | 936960.257537654 | -228043.257537654 |
| 38 | 885295 | 709959.482126439 | 175335.517873561 |
| 39 | 1099663 | 884493.46723167 | 215169.53276833 |
| 40 | 1576220 | 1098679.36911134 | 477540.630888662 |
| 41 | 1487870 | 1574036.95991486 | -86166.959914864 |
| 42 | 1488635 | 1488263.90559743 | 371.094402567483 |
| 43 | 2882530 | 1488633.30357062 | 1393896.69642938 |
| 44 | 2677026 | 2876157.90898613 | -199131.908986129 |
| 45 | 1404398 | 2677936.31613108 | -1273538.31613108 |
| 46 | 1344370 | 1410219.8819808 | -65849.8819808003 |
| 47 | 936865 | 1344671.02764596 | -407806.027645958 |
| 48 | 872705 | 938729.253736178 | -66024.2537361784 |
| 49 | 628151 | 873006.82477296 | -244855.82477296 |
| 50 | 953712 | 629270.339478117 | 324441.660521883 |
| 51 | 1160384 | 952228.840024923 | 208155.159975077 |
| 52 | 1400618 | 1159432.43477442 | 241185.565225577 |
| 53 | 1661511 | 1399515.43882973 | 261995.561170269 |
| 54 | 1495347 | 1660313.30754167 | -164966.307541668 |
| 55 | 2918786 | 1496101.13072473 | 1422684.86927527 |
| 56 | 2775677 | 2912282.30607899 | -136605.306078993 |
| 57 | 1407026 | 2776301.48059856 | -1369275.48059856 |
| 58 | 1370199 | 1413285.53702867 | -43086.5370286666 |
| 59 | 964526 | 1370395.96677388 | -405869.966773881 |
| 60 | 850851 | 966381.403183539 | -115530.403183539 |
| 61 | 683118 | 851379.138308843 | -168261.138308843 |
| 62 | 847224 | 683887.192788926 | 163336.807211074 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 846477.318410087 | 226778.681589913 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1072219.29878477 | 442106.701215232 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1512304.94338569 | -8570.94338568836 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1503773.18140524 | 3938.81859475793 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 1507693.99399522 | 1358004.00600478 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2859489.98964627 | -71361.9896462699 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 2788454.22582012 | -1396858.22582012 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1397981.62941658 | -31603.629416585 |
| 71 | 946295 | 1366522.47354924 | -420227.473549243 |
| 72 | 859626 | 948216.037416075 | -88590.0374160755 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 860030.98250895 | -354961.958876104 | 2075023.923894 |
| 74 | 860030.98250895 | -854305.566924627 | 2574367.53194253 |
| 75 | 860030.98250895 | -1237989.93298073 | 2958051.89799863 |
| 76 | 860030.98250895 | -1561628.30792405 | 3281690.27294195 |
| 77 | 860030.98250895 | -1846844.64744688 | 3566906.61246478 |
| 78 | 860030.98250895 | -2104748.54270993 | 3824810.50772783 |
| 79 | 860030.98250895 | -2341946.46748432 | 4062008.43250222 |
| 80 | 860030.98250895 | -2562745.89414745 | 4282807.85916535 |
| 81 | 860030.98250895 | -2770140.29505938 | 4490202.26007728 |
| 82 | 860030.98250895 | -2966310.01923023 | 4686371.98424813 |
| 83 | 860030.98250895 | -3152901.53856572 | 4872963.50358362 |
| 84 | 860030.98250895 | -3331194.3008428 | 5051256.26586071 |
