| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999952418280609 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 6927 | 7116 | -189 |
| 3 | 6731 | 6927.00899294497 | -196.008992944965 |
| 4 | 6850 | 6731.0093264449 | 118.990673555099 |
| 5 | 6766 | 6849.99433821916 | -83.9943382191605 |
| 6 | 6979 | 6766.00399659503 | 212.996003404968 |
| 7 | 7149 | 6978.98986528393 | 170.010134716065 |
| 8 | 7067 | 7148.99191062548 | -81.9919106254765 |
| 9 | 7170 | 7067.00390131608 | 102.996098683916 |
| 10 | 7237 | 7169.99509926853 | 67.0049007314656 |
| 11 | 7240 | 7236.99681179162 | 3.00318820838402 |
| 12 | 7645 | 7239.99985710314 | 405.000142896859 |
| 13 | 7678 | 7644.98072939685 | 33.019270603153 |
| 14 | 7491 | 7677.99842888633 | -186.998428886332 |
| 15 | 7816 | 7491.00889770677 | 324.99110229323 |
| 16 | 7631 | 7815.98453636457 | -184.984536364566 |
| 17 | 8395 | 7631.0088018823 | 763.991198117699 |
| 18 | 8578 | 8394.96364798519 | 183.036352014806 |
| 19 | 8950 | 8577.99129081566 | 372.00870918434 |
| 20 | 9450 | 8949.98229918599 | 500.017700814011 |
| 21 | 9501 | 9449.97620829807 | 51.0237917019313 |
| 22 | 10083 | 9500.99757220026 | 582.002427799738 |
| 23 | 10544 | 10082.9723073238 | 461.027692676205 |
| 24 | 11299 | 10543.9780635097 | 755.021936490304 |
| 25 | 12049 | 11298.9640747581 | 750.035925241917 |
| 26 | 12860 | 12048.9643120011 | 811.035687998929 |
| 27 | 13389 | 12859.9614095275 | 529.038590472523 |
| 28 | 13796 | 13388.9748274342 | 407.02517256576 |
| 29 | 14505 | 13795.9806330425 | 709.019366957546 |
| 30 | 14727 | 14504.9662636394 | 222.033736360561 |
| 31 | 14646 | 14726.9894352531 | -80.9894352530609 |
| 32 | 14861 | 14646.0038536166 | 214.996146383419 |
| 33 | 15012 | 14860.9897701137 | 151.010229886308 |
| 34 | 15421 | 15011.9928146736 | 409.007185326383 |
| 35 | 15227 | 15420.9805387349 | -193.980538734879 |
| 36 | 15124 | 15227.0092299276 | -103.009229927562 |
| 37 | 14953 | 15124.0049013563 | -171.004901356273 |
| 38 | 15039 | 14953.0081367072 | 85.9918632927693 |
| 39 | 15128 | 15038.9959083593 | 89.0040916407088 |
| 40 | 15221 | 15127.9957650323 | 93.0042349677133 |
| 41 | 14876 | 15220.9955746986 | -344.995574698589 |
| 42 | 14517 | 14876.0164154826 | -359.016415482627 |
| 43 | 14609 | 14517.0170826183 | 91.9829173816615 |
| 44 | 14735 | 14608.9956232946 | 126.004376705363 |
| 45 | 14574 | 14734.9940044951 | -160.994004495105 |
| 46 | 14636 | 14574.0076603715 | 61.9923396284539 |
| 47 | 15104 | 14635.9970502979 | 468.002949702108 |
| 48 | 14393 | 15103.977731615 | -710.977731614972 |
| 49 | 13919 | 14393.0338295429 | -474.033829542919 |
| 50 | 13751 | 13919.0225553447 | -168.02255534466 |
| 51 | 13628 | 13751.0079948021 | -123.007994802079 |
| 52 | 13792 | 13628.0058529319 | 163.994147068108 |
| 53 | 13892 | 13791.9921968765 | 100.007803123488 |
| 54 | 14024 | 13891.9952414568 | 132.004758543226 |
| 55 | 13908 | 14023.9937189866 | -115.993718986621 |
| 56 | 13920 | 13908.0055191806 | 11.9944808194123 |
| 57 | 13897 | 13919.999429282 | -22.9994292819792 |
| 58 | 13759 | 13897.0010943524 | -138.00109435239 |
| 59 | 13323 | 13759.0065663293 | -436.006566329348 |
| 60 | 13097 | 13323.0207459421 | -226.020745942093 |
| 61 | 12758 | 13097.0107544557 | -339.01075445571 |
| 62 | 12806 | 12758.0161307146 | 47.98386928541 |
| 63 | 12673 | 12805.997716845 | -132.997716844997 |
| 64 | 12500 | 12673.00632826 | -173.006328260042 |
| 65 | 12720 | 12500.0082319386 | 219.991768061436 |
| 66 | 12749 | 12719.9895324134 | 29.0104675865769 |
| 67 | 12794 | 12748.9986196321 | 45.0013803679285 |
| 68 | 12544 | 12793.9978587569 | -249.997858756948 |
| 69 | 12088 | 12544.011895328 | -456.011895327963 |
| 70 | 12258 | 12088.02169783 | 169.978302169957 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 71 | 12257.9919121401 | 11630.1091341644 | 12885.8746901159 |
| 72 | 12257.9919121401 | 11370.0526970349 | 13145.9311272453 |
| 73 | 12257.9919121401 | 11170.5015367506 | 13345.4822875296 |
| 74 | 12257.9919121401 | 11002.2711695353 | 13513.7126547449 |
| 75 | 12257.9919121401 | 10854.0567817829 | 13661.9270424973 |
| 76 | 12257.9919121401 | 10720.0604711798 | 13795.9233531004 |
| 77 | 12257.9919121401 | 10596.8379807005 | 13919.1458435798 |
| 78 | 12257.9919121401 | 10482.1451702222 | 14033.8386540581 |
| 79 | 12257.9919121401 | 10374.423246648 | 14141.5605776322 |
| 80 | 12257.9919121401 | 10272.5372577935 | 14243.4465664868 |
| 81 | 12257.9919121401 | 10175.6304038256 | 14340.3534204547 |
| 82 | 12257.9919121401 | 10083.0370348718 | 14432.9467894084 |
