| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.151461747160508 |
| beta | 0.0130427200103942 |
| gamma | 0.411395508330862 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 630 | 622.741452991453 | 7.25854700854688 |
| 14 | 586 | 581.594112006941 | 4.40588799305851 |
| 15 | 695 | 689.606739350703 | 5.39326064929708 |
| 16 | 552 | 546.36290345707 | 5.63709654292973 |
| 17 | 619 | 616.583801973498 | 2.41619802650212 |
| 18 | 681 | 678.529964040886 | 2.47003595911406 |
| 19 | 421 | 396.989159985354 | 24.0108400146464 |
| 20 | 307 | 370.425063183991 | -63.4250631839909 |
| 21 | 754 | 644.034143876249 | 109.965856123751 |
| 22 | 690 | 775.122550745969 | -85.122550745969 |
| 23 | 644 | 622.286036012755 | 21.7139639872448 |
| 24 | 643 | 652.632395147972 | -9.63239514797181 |
| 25 | 608 | 642.579133375207 | -34.5791333752071 |
| 26 | 651 | 594.066082967173 | 56.9339170328266 |
| 27 | 691 | 710.450060607724 | -19.4500606077236 |
| 28 | 627 | 563.550140399101 | 63.4498596008993 |
| 29 | 634 | 641.538910897884 | -7.53891089788351 |
| 30 | 731 | 702.112199408407 | 28.8878005915932 |
| 31 | 475 | 432.260582186561 | 42.739417813439 |
| 32 | 337 | 378.215937474415 | -41.2159374744148 |
| 33 | 803 | 715.966199570873 | 87.0338004291269 |
| 34 | 722 | 775.68278256634 | -53.6827825663403 |
| 35 | 590 | 665.169212499472 | -75.1692124994725 |
| 36 | 724 | 669.973564324338 | 54.0264356756625 |
| 37 | 627 | 661.054035023088 | -34.0540350230882 |
| 38 | 696 | 644.767754015399 | 51.2322459846011 |
| 39 | 825 | 733.813815386021 | 91.1861846139793 |
| 40 | 677 | 633.01887364353 | 43.9811263564699 |
| 41 | 656 | 683.648028497491 | -27.6480284974909 |
| 42 | 785 | 754.222097432889 | 30.7779025671114 |
| 43 | 412 | 489.826411863353 | -77.8264118633532 |
| 44 | 352 | 388.309204917751 | -36.3092049177511 |
| 45 | 839 | 771.678469400212 | 67.3215305997882 |
| 46 | 729 | 779.354215312366 | -50.3542153123658 |
| 47 | 696 | 661.91762631777 | 34.0823736822305 |
| 48 | 641 | 728.658895299873 | -87.6588952998731 |
| 49 | 695 | 667.541247565845 | 27.4587524341553 |
| 50 | 638 | 690.47480935382 | -52.4748093538202 |
| 51 | 762 | 777.686524115126 | -15.6865241151263 |
| 52 | 635 | 643.940752951343 | -8.94075295134348 |
| 53 | 721 | 661.159938009459 | 59.8400619905406 |
| 54 | 854 | 765.163863888418 | 88.8361361115821 |
| 55 | 418 | 471.547506030353 | -53.5475060303531 |
| 56 | 367 | 388.14645827814 | -21.1464582781402 |
| 57 | 824 | 809.963976459593 | 14.0360235404074 |
| 58 | 687 | 768.360685353665 | -81.3606853536647 |
| 59 | 601 | 675.512577999539 | -74.5125779995392 |
| 60 | 676 | 682.902553571871 | -6.90255357187129 |
| 61 | 740 | 673.956475837085 | 66.0435241629153 |
| 62 | 691 | 674.661033621906 | 16.3389663780938 |
| 63 | 683 | 785.104047552285 | -102.104047552285 |
| 64 | 594 | 640.419870478895 | -46.4198704788954 |
| 65 | 729 | 675.69439955378 | 53.30560044622 |
| 66 | 731 | 788.539443135078 | -57.5394431350778 |
| 67 | 386 | 422.468403530654 | -36.4684035306544 |
| 68 | 331 | 352.418228055126 | -21.4182280551265 |
| 69 | 706 | 785.92904463628 | -79.9290446362796 |
| 70 | 715 | 696.059261735477 | 18.9407382645231 |
| 71 | 657 | 620.258861494398 | 36.7411385056021 |
| 72 | 653 | 667.786239567656 | -14.7862395676563 |
| 73 | 642 | 682.779966428273 | -40.7799664282727 |
| 74 | 643 | 649.41223045958 | -6.41223045958031 |
| 75 | 718 | 714.476190763615 | 3.52380923638486 |
| 76 | 654 | 604.851300970954 | 49.148699029046 |
| 77 | 632 | 689.224460638992 | -57.2244606389916 |
| 78 | 731 | 746.22675557852 | -15.2267555785204 |
| 79 | 392 | 393.596287588733 | -1.59628758873299 |
| 80 | 344 | 333.826818374316 | 10.1731816256845 |
| 81 | 792 | 751.504821593708 | 40.4951784062916 |
| 82 | 852 | 714.434072433297 | 137.565927566703 |
| 83 | 649 | 663.094470687955 | -14.0944706879545 |
| 84 | 629 | 685.114118839537 | -56.1141188395374 |
| 85 | 685 | 684.871941234928 | 0.128058765071501 |
| 86 | 617 | 669.875978017188 | -52.8759780171881 |
| 87 | 715 | 731.457707393615 | -16.4577073936148 |
| 88 | 715 | 634.780594709871 | 80.2194052901291 |
| 89 | 629 | 686.835157080812 | -57.8351570808125 |
| 90 | 916 | 758.513145180141 | 157.486854819859 |
| 91 | 531 | 437.248991778257 | 93.7510082217433 |
| 92 | 357 | 396.666509563253 | -39.6665095632533 |
| 93 | 917 | 817.919173948688 | 99.080826051312 |
| 94 | 828 | 824.262088186309 | 3.73791181369131 |
| 95 | 708 | 700.100197267324 | 7.89980273267633 |
| 96 | 858 | 711.21604366433 | 146.78395633567 |
| 97 | 775 | 762.172602221982 | 12.8273977780181 |
| 98 | 785 | 731.456433757362 | 53.5435662426377 |
| 99 | 1006 | 822.939183480501 | 183.060816519499 |
| 100 | 789 | 791.693616137035 | -2.69361613703518 |
| 101 | 734 | 784.297090177805 | -50.2970901778048 |
| 102 | 906 | 933.597160961274 | -27.5971609612737 |
| 103 | 532 | 562.999720612548 | -30.999720612548 |
| 104 | 387 | 457.650880734783 | -70.6508807347831 |
| 105 | 991 | 923.286615475873 | 67.7133845241267 |
| 106 | 841 | 892.175259918581 | -51.1752599185813 |
| 107 | 892 | 761.619959853569 | 130.380040146431 |
| 108 | 782 | 840.482166819464 | -58.4821668194642 |
| 109 | 811 | 813.893999338186 | -2.89399933818572 |
| 110 | 792 | 795.286421503453 | -3.28642150345263 |
| 111 | 978 | 923.538226961922 | 54.4617730380776 |
| 112 | 773 | 807.880844284195 | -34.8808442841949 |
| 113 | 796 | 778.838023314309 | 17.1619766856908 |
| 114 | 946 | 946.259515887327 | -0.259515887327211 |
| 115 | 594 | 578.648658688393 | 15.3513413116068 |
| 116 | 438 | 466.603936191577 | -28.6039361915771 |
| 117 | 1023 | 987.117425556016 | 35.8825744439844 |
| 118 | 868 | 909.828202733059 | -41.8282027330587 |
| 119 | 791 | 844.230794034079 | -53.2307940340789 |
| 120 | 760 | 829.155303797136 | -69.1553037971361 |
| 121 | 779 | 820.135716782185 | -41.135716782185 |
| 122 | 852 | 795.303614174603 | 56.6963858253969 |
| 123 | 1001 | 952.622654481081 | 48.3773455189191 |
| 124 | 734 | 804.666657762128 | -70.6666577621279 |
| 125 | 996 | 788.111416132637 | 207.888583867363 |
| 126 | 869 | 978.456292529227 | -109.456292529227 |
| 127 | 599 | 599.657276192243 | -0.657276192242989 |
| 128 | 426 | 469.713577600937 | -43.7135776009368 |
| 129 | 1138 | 1010.28978539866 | 127.710214601344 |
| 130 | 1091 | 919.802676095642 | 171.197323904358 |
| 131 | 830 | 882.93223228537 | -52.9322322853702 |
| 132 | 909 | 862.785765848765 | 46.2142341512351 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 133 | 881.692180534123 | 757.593307183766 | 1005.79105388448 |
| 134 | 897.994247727917 | 772.443044013364 | 1023.54545144247 |
| 135 | 1044.46188121841 | 917.437964628956 | 1171.48579780787 |
| 136 | 848.166521496448 | 719.649742582394 | 976.683300410502 |
| 137 | 940.23799284931 | 810.208433958684 | 1070.26755173994 |
| 138 | 988.588751398412 | 857.026725132367 | 1120.15077766446 |
| 139 | 664.837821201911 | 531.723868615359 | 797.951773788463 |
| 140 | 520.454230926883 | 385.769119499474 | 655.139342354292 |
| 141 | 1128.07003080752 | 991.794752208707 | 1264.34530940634 |
| 142 | 1033.74532374268 | 895.861091413199 | 1171.62955607217 |
| 143 | 892.691535825937 | 753.179782396732 | 1032.20328925514 |
| 144 | 915.26409972274 | 774.106474290926 | 1056.42172515455 |
