| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.218080460096599 |
| beta | 0.0173054151884953 |
| gamma | 0.462793140010703 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 200 | 178.996240926353 | 21.0037590736465 |
| 14 | 188 | 174.638359962494 | 13.3616400375056 |
| 15 | 90 | 84.3844912117078 | 5.61550878829223 |
| 16 | 79 | 75.1615762333204 | 3.83842376667964 |
| 17 | 78 | 76.8545082764411 | 1.14549172355892 |
| 18 | 91 | 92.3808522909257 | -1.38085229092569 |
| 19 | 167 | 194.212808684525 | -27.2128086845248 |
| 20 | 169 | 184.008879972974 | -15.0088799729745 |
| 21 | 289 | 220.731593072396 | 68.2684069276037 |
| 22 | 247 | 311.630510329539 | -64.630510329539 |
| 23 | 275 | 316.844391419137 | -41.844391419137 |
| 24 | 203 | 251.199669254532 | -48.1996692545315 |
| 25 | 223 | 205.13049728485 | 17.8695027151497 |
| 26 | 104 | 195.805258677003 | -91.8052586770035 |
| 27 | 107 | 83.0399239415857 | 23.9600760584143 |
| 28 | 85 | 76.9126257335064 | 8.08737426649361 |
| 29 | 75 | 78.3961139894838 | -3.39611398948384 |
| 30 | 99 | 91.8511290138026 | 7.14887098619738 |
| 31 | 135 | 187.381718260067 | -52.3817182600668 |
| 32 | 211 | 175.625664870909 | 35.3743351290908 |
| 33 | 335 | 254.635500590628 | 80.3644994093723 |
| 34 | 488 | 299.743136835132 | 188.256863164868 |
| 35 | 326 | 374.415309851575 | -48.4153098515753 |
| 36 | 346 | 289.701186634624 | 56.2988133653756 |
| 37 | 261 | 286.175603215236 | -25.1756032152355 |
| 38 | 224 | 206.865911886453 | 17.1340881135471 |
| 39 | 141 | 134.871063798765 | 6.12893620123523 |
| 40 | 148 | 112.166745675222 | 35.8332543247782 |
| 41 | 145 | 113.549821615159 | 31.4501783848409 |
| 42 | 223 | 148.926414557505 | 74.0735854424945 |
| 43 | 272 | 288.063668817784 | -16.0636688177838 |
| 44 | 445 | 341.325160023508 | 103.674839976492 |
| 45 | 560 | 524.157440172023 | 35.8425598279771 |
| 46 | 612 | 636.281411050963 | -24.2814110509629 |
| 47 | 467 | 550.340424535747 | -83.3404245357469 |
| 48 | 404 | 475.521642588138 | -71.5216425881379 |
| 49 | 518 | 395.133554478984 | 122.866445521016 |
| 50 | 404 | 331.112128623186 | 72.887871376814 |
| 51 | 300 | 219.589641713216 | 80.4103582867844 |
| 52 | 210 | 213.190103539809 | -3.19010353980923 |
| 53 | 196 | 198.80019114449 | -2.8001911444903 |
| 54 | 186 | 260.418255421333 | -74.4182554213334 |
| 55 | 247 | 358.830883054141 | -111.830883054141 |
| 56 | 343 | 451.220925741842 | -108.220925741842 |
| 57 | 464 | 570.831096638769 | -106.831096638769 |
| 58 | 680 | 628.935558265292 | 51.064441734708 |
| 59 | 711 | 532.952413008262 | 178.047586991738 |
| 60 | 610 | 510.492346216899 | 99.5076537831013 |
| 61 | 513 | 535.170082504436 | -22.1700825044355 |
| 62 | 292 | 404.647584147747 | -112.647584147747 |
| 63 | 273 | 250.46351868487 | 22.53648131513 |
| 64 | 322 | 202.937201096688 | 119.062798903312 |
| 65 | 189 | 213.953717654589 | -24.9537176545893 |
| 66 | 257 | 244.678286465187 | 12.3217135348127 |
| 67 | 324 | 358.811501378948 | -34.8115013789479 |
| 68 | 404 | 489.4700262312 | -85.4700262311998 |
| 69 | 677 | 642.770699104805 | 34.2293008951946 |
| 70 | 858 | 826.889436910338 | 31.1105630896617 |
| 71 | 895 | 750.677946511787 | 144.322053488213 |
| 72 | 664 | 669.883859986125 | -5.88385998612466 |
| 73 | 628 | 619.83893718089 | 8.1610628191097 |
| 74 | 308 | 429.723020645643 | -121.723020645643 |
| 75 | 324 | 306.94443757336 | 17.0555624266399 |
| 76 | 248 | 284.098358932824 | -36.0983589328243 |
| 77 | 272 | 207.513756526967 | 64.4862434730326 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 78 | 276.417258799644 | 198.681120881678 | 354.15339671761 |
| 79 | 379.342779008801 | 291.705564802701 | 466.979993214901 |
| 80 | 511.887383402644 | 408.64788264587 | 615.126884159418 |
| 81 | 761.825098419197 | 626.312667511409 | 897.337529326985 |
| 82 | 962.962937770582 | 797.3039904292 | 1128.62188511197 |
| 83 | 912.083715338352 | 749.811108591312 | 1074.35632208539 |
| 84 | 729.232971744311 | 588.610706679794 | 869.855236808829 |
| 85 | 680.793824096317 | 543.114120985261 | 818.473527207372 |
| 86 | 416.838116998216 | 310.61017801567 | 523.066055980761 |
| 87 | 363.206261449792 | 259.555013485212 | 466.857509414371 |
| 88 | 310.12676937191 | 209.344477671202 | 410.909061072618 |
| 89 | 270.241023698426 | 207.718910593908 | 332.763136802945 |
