Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.408032483432256 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.881226574770473 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 100.05 | 99.8559935897436 | 0.194006410256435 |
14 | 100.05 | 99.8889890059568 | 0.161010994043224 |
15 | 100.05 | 99.994354553884 | 0.0556454461160456 |
16 | 100.05 | 99.9958942022889 | 0.0541057977111308 |
17 | 100.05 | 99.8493056241315 | 0.200694375868466 |
18 | 108.77 | 108.497529947563 | 0.27247005243747 |
19 | 111.32 | 110.892124411887 | 0.427875588112599 |
20 | 111.6 | 111.089712716206 | 0.510287283793815 |
21 | 108.52 | 110.580927669378 | -2.06092766937763 |
22 | 103.13 | 100.573003399768 | 2.55699660023161 |
23 | 102.87 | 101.63934223819 | 1.23065776181012 |
24 | 102.75 | 102.191158413164 | 0.558841586835712 |
25 | 102.75 | 102.56130666617 | 0.188693333829633 |
26 | 102.75 | 102.57492186805 | 0.175078131949732 |
27 | 102.75 | 102.631062536137 | 0.118937463863205 |
28 | 102.75 | 102.657624214576 | 0.0923757854240392 |
29 | 102.75 | 102.603120066782 | 0.146879933217676 |
30 | 115.22 | 111.266828670036 | 3.95317132996375 |
31 | 115.53 | 115.244337281717 | 0.28566271828322 |
32 | 115.4 | 115.4268887953 | -0.0268887952997972 |
33 | 111.99 | 113.357624876445 | -1.36762487644479 |
34 | 107.93 | 106.041565529207 | 1.88843447079267 |
35 | 107.43 | 106.143214689736 | 1.28678531026362 |
36 | 106.98 | 106.367474776696 | 0.612525223304445 |
37 | 106.98 | 106.566437082326 | 0.413562917674057 |
38 | 106.98 | 106.66470390668 | 0.315296093319716 |
39 | 106.98 | 106.748771856811 | 0.231228143188929 |
40 | 106.98 | 106.807295681045 | 0.172704318954516 |
41 | 106.98 | 106.814000682138 | 0.165999317862045 |
42 | 113.71 | 117.471091096334 | -3.76109109633356 |
43 | 118.77 | 116.387746653092 | 2.38225334690782 |
44 | 118.54 | 117.262730404229 | 1.27726959577124 |
45 | 116.16 | 115.026200430836 | 1.13379956916407 |
46 | 110.52 | 110.429351313984 | 0.090648686016408 |
47 | 110.06 | 109.483590674901 | 0.576409325099291 |
48 | 109.9 | 109.06626144843 | 0.833738551570335 |
49 | 109.9 | 109.251695797419 | 0.6483042025815 |
50 | 110.72 | 109.394483064604 | 1.32551693539581 |
51 | 110.09 | 109.846899256458 | 0.243100743541547 |
52 | 110.07 | 109.879738095049 | 0.190261904950688 |
53 | 112.45 | 109.890109447405 | 2.55989055259546 |
54 | 113.06 | 119.475389051941 | -6.41538905194076 |
55 | 119.83 | 120.51372656901 | -0.683726569009735 |
56 | 119.84 | 119.561267852007 | 0.27873214799277 |
57 | 113.73 | 116.842459947588 | -3.11245994758805 |
58 | 110.5 | 109.968831525689 | 0.531168474310547 |
59 | 110.12 | 109.456217953808 | 0.663782046191827 |
60 | 109.86 | 109.208777358468 | 0.651222641532016 |
61 | 110.36 | 109.223006067212 | 1.13699393278777 |
62 | 110.36 | 109.918467724551 | 0.441532275449362 |
63 | 110.59 | 109.445538928111 | 1.1444610718886 |
64 | 112.52 | 109.818598283133 | 2.7014017168671 |
65 | 112.1 | 112.089730822037 | 0.0102691779629396 |
66 | 115.9 | 115.952660102136 | -0.0526601021363007 |
67 | 122.96 | 122.577162475814 | 0.3828375241863 |
68 | 121.26 | 122.5619703694 | -1.30197036939995 |
69 | 114.55 | 117.429143676901 | -2.87914367690134 |
70 | 111.57 | 112.55144199136 | -0.981441991359532 |
71 | 110.65 | 111.490813080007 | -0.840813080007266 |
72 | 109.77 | 110.62289709104 | -0.85289709103975 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 110.276802330692 | 107.229685637481 | 113.323919023904 |
74 | 110.145540735606 | 106.854527030237 | 113.436554440975 |
75 | 109.859140511849 | 106.341098119295 | 113.377182904403 |
76 | 110.577412348923 | 106.846129279698 | 114.308695418149 |
77 | 110.342435745294 | 106.409456669635 | 114.275414820952 |
78 | 114.168347335832 | 110.043523039399 | 118.293171632266 |
79 | 121.041517347814 | 116.7333824215 | 125.349652274128 |
80 | 119.991222410113 | 115.507264603642 | 124.475180216583 |
81 | 114.566897625097 | 109.913755817985 | 119.220039432208 |
82 | 111.85393041451 | 107.0375438287 | 116.670317000319 |
83 | 111.267121843545 | 106.292844930178 | 116.241398756911 |
84 | 110.735981188645 | 105.608673720029 | 115.863288657261 |