Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0734210921061535 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 9.95 | 9.98 | -0.0300000000000011 |
4 | 9.96 | 9.93779736723681 | 0.0222026327631859 |
5 | 9.97 | 9.94942750878192 | 0.0205724912180791 |
6 | 9.95 | 9.9609379635545 | -0.0109379635544968 |
7 | 9.94 | 9.94013488632491 | -0.000134886324907768 |
8 | 9.9 | 9.93012498282362 | -0.0301249828236223 |
9 | 9.9 | 9.88791317368503 | 0.0120868263149667 |
10 | 9.92 | 9.88880060167318 | 0.0311993983268248 |
11 | 9.87 | 9.91109129557139 | -0.0410912955713858 |
12 | 9.96 | 9.85807432777448 | 0.101925672225523 |
13 | 9.94 | 9.95555782194293 | -0.0155578219429309 |
14 | 9.96 | 9.93441554966509 | 0.0255844503349145 |
15 | 9.96 | 9.95629398794961 | 0.00370601205038845 |
16 | 9.89 | 9.95656608740171 | -0.0665660874017107 |
17 | 9.82 | 9.88167873256744 | -0.0616787325674437 |
18 | 9.83 | 9.80715021266262 | 0.0228497873373819 |
19 | 9.83 | 9.81882786900332 | 0.0111721309966786 |
20 | 9.82 | 9.81964813906225 | 0.000351860937749748 |
21 | 9.77 | 9.80967397307657 | -0.0396739730765709 |
22 | 9.66 | 9.7567610666451 | -0.0967610666450973 |
23 | 9.69 | 9.63965676345866 | 0.050343236541341 |
24 | 9.67 | 9.67335301886568 | -0.00335301886568118 |
25 | 9.7 | 9.65310683655871 | 0.0468931634412879 |
26 | 9.77 | 9.68654978383088 | 0.0834502161691173 |
27 | 9.79 | 9.76267678983851 | 0.0273232101614855 |
28 | 9.81 | 9.78468288976842 | 0.025317110231585 |
29 | 9.77 | 9.80654169965059 | -0.0365416996505914 |
30 | 9.78 | 9.76385876815483 | 0.0161412318451699 |
31 | 9.77 | 9.77504387502484 | -0.00504387502484072 |
32 | 9.79 | 9.76467354821207 | 0.0253264517879295 |
33 | 9.77 | 9.78653304396151 | -0.0165330439615126 |
34 | 9.77 | 9.76531916981802 | 0.00468083018198051 |
35 | 9.8 | 9.76566284148194 | 0.0343371585180563 |
36 | 9.8 | 9.79818391316016 | 0.00181608683983825 |
37 | 9.8 | 9.7983172522393 | 0.00168274776069666 |
38 | 9.8 | 9.79844080141763 | 0.00155919858236686 |
39 | 9.76 | 9.79855527948036 | -0.0385552794803612 |
40 | 9.78 | 9.75572450875445 | 0.024275491245545 |
41 | 9.77 | 9.77750684183311 | -0.00750684183311456 |
42 | 9.79 | 9.76695568130746 | 0.0230443186925395 |
43 | 9.81 | 9.78864762035271 | 0.0213523796472934 |
44 | 9.82 | 9.81021533538548 | 0.00978466461452143 |
45 | 9.84 | 9.82093373614737 | 0.0190662638526309 |
46 | 9.87 | 9.84233360206181 | 0.0276663979381873 |
47 | 9.99 | 9.87436489921308 | 0.115635100786923 |
48 | 9.99 | 10.0028549545987 | -0.0128549545986587 |
49 | 9.99 | 10.0019111297931 | -0.0119111297930505 |
50 | 10.08 | 10.0010366016354 | 0.0789633983645732 |
51 | 10.06 | 10.0968341805798 | -0.036834180579767 |
52 | 10.08 | 10.0741297748148 | 0.00587022518523383 |
53 | 10.07 | 10.0945607731588 | -0.0245607731587736 |
54 | 10.04 | 10.0827574943705 | -0.0427574943704858 |
55 | 10.04 | 10.0496181924381 | -0.00961819243808115 |
56 | 10.12 | 10.0489120142452 | 0.0710879857548097 |
57 | 10.1 | 10.1341313717949 | -0.0341313717949348 |
58 | 10.11 | 10.1116254092027 | -0.00162540920267062 |
59 | 10.13 | 10.1215060698839 | 0.00849393011610999 |
60 | 10.16 | 10.1421297035093 | 0.0178702964907114 |
61 | 10.15 | 10.1734417601939 | -0.0234417601938972 |
62 | 10.25 | 10.1617206405596 | 0.0882793594404294 |
63 | 10.41 | 10.2682022075401 | 0.141797792459881 |
64 | 10.46 | 10.4386131563208 | 0.0213868436792364 |
65 | 10.46 | 10.4901834017404 | -0.0301834017403984 |
66 | 10.5 | 10.4879673034211 | 0.01203269657886 |
67 | 10.5 | 10.5288507571449 | -0.0288507571449408 |
68 | 10.48 | 10.5267325030473 | -0.0467325030472701 |
69 | 10.5 | 10.5033013516367 | -0.00330135163668643 |
70 | 10.5 | 10.5230589627941 | -0.023058962794094 |
71 | 10.53 | 10.5213659485629 | 0.00863405143708285 |
72 | 10.53 | 10.5519998700487 | -0.0219998700487274 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 10.5503846155636 | 10.4686382196474 | 10.6321310114797 |
74 | 10.5707692311271 | 10.4508432607227 | 10.6906952015315 |
75 | 10.5911538466907 | 10.4389324906471 | 10.7433752027342 |
76 | 10.6115384622542 | 10.4295444303209 | 10.7935324941876 |
77 | 10.6319230778178 | 10.421433782395 | 10.8424123732405 |
78 | 10.6523076933813 | 10.413990395311 | 10.8906249914517 |
79 | 10.6726923089449 | 10.4068689715296 | 10.9385156463602 |
80 | 10.6930769245084 | 10.399855974043 | 10.9862978749739 |
81 | 10.713461540072 | 10.3928112357986 | 11.0341118443454 |
82 | 10.7338461556356 | 10.3856387920286 | 11.0820535192425 |
83 | 10.7542307711991 | 10.3782709023972 | 11.130190640001 |
84 | 10.7746153867627 | 10.3706586711258 | 11.1785721023995 |