Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.6717741154244 |
beta | 0.0865680638632208 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0 |
4 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0 |
5 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0 |
6 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.01 |
7 | 0.48 | 0.477299282999501 | 0.00270071700049884 |
8 | 0.48 | 0.479852154613579 | 0.000147845386421153 |
9 | 0.48 | 0.480698670985201 | -0.0006986709852006 |
10 | 0.48 | 0.480935888928688 | -0.000935888928687789 |
11 | 0.49 | 0.480959324140572 | 0.00904067585942842 |
12 | 0.49 | 0.488210510470133 | 0.00178948952986724 |
13 | 0.49 | 0.490694603821702 | -0.000694603821702222 |
14 | 0.49 | 0.49146955344057 | -0.00146955344056998 |
15 | 0.49 | 0.491638451282771 | -0.00163845128277101 |
16 | 0.49 | 0.491598605128196 | -0.00159860512819571 |
17 | 0.49 | 0.491492561011254 | -0.00149256101125445 |
18 | 0.5 | 0.491370955918703 | 0.00862904408129705 |
19 | 0.5 | 0.49855059815566 | 0.00144940184434034 |
20 | 0.5 | 0.500991431362129 | -0.000991431362128758 |
21 | 0.5 | 0.501734920118046 | -0.00173492011804577 |
22 | 0.5 | 0.501878059507947 | -0.00187805950794651 |
23 | 0.5 | 0.501815824541639 | -0.00181582454163876 |
24 | 0.5 | 0.50168979961931 | -0.00168979961931026 |
25 | 0.5 | 0.501550166058828 | -0.00155016605882752 |
26 | 0.51 | 0.501414186066891 | 0.00858581393310898 |
27 | 0.51 | 0.508586596075767 | 0.00141340392423339 |
28 | 0.5 | 0.511022962048088 | -0.0110229620480878 |
29 | 0.51 | 0.504463867901294 | 0.00553613209870552 |
30 | 0.5 | 0.509350693824819 | -0.00935069382481946 |
31 | 0.51 | 0.503693153457959 | 0.00630684654204072 |
32 | 0.51 | 0.50892071293835 | 0.00107928706165028 |
33 | 0.52 | 0.510699298331912 | 0.00930070166808816 |
34 | 0.53 | 0.518541691971276 | 0.0114583080287243 |
35 | 0.53 | 0.528499858274445 | 0.00150014172555513 |
36 | 0.53 | 0.531855625736776 | -0.00185562573677622 |
37 | 0.53 | 0.532849163079023 | -0.00284916307902272 |
38 | 0.53 | 0.533009576996599 | -0.00300957699659921 |
39 | 0.54 | 0.532887209500589 | 0.00711279049941071 |
40 | 0.55 | 0.539978425006408 | 0.0100215749935924 |
41 | 0.54 | 0.549606483164181 | -0.00960648316418078 |
42 | 0.55 | 0.545490262720944 | 0.00450973727905568 |
43 | 0.55 | 0.551119213872988 | -0.00111921387298752 |
44 | 0.55 | 0.552901694374006 | -0.00290169437400623 |
45 | 0.54 | 0.553318004943129 | -0.0133180049431287 |
46 | 0.55 | 0.545962409976716 | 0.00403759002328408 |
47 | 0.55 | 0.550500657221783 | -0.000500657221782608 |
48 | 0.55 | 0.551961112125758 | -0.00196111212575767 |
49 | 0.55 | 0.552326424352061 | -0.00232642435206076 |
50 | 0.56 | 0.552311037969631 | 0.00768896203036951 |
51 | 0.56 | 0.559470874231616 | 0.00052912576838382 |
52 | 0.56 | 0.561851688699695 | -0.00185168869969488 |
53 | 0.56 | 0.562525450188164 | -0.00252545018816408 |
54 | 0.55 | 0.562599730652457 | -0.0125997306524569 |
55 | 0.55 | 0.555173643207975 | -0.00517364320797475 |
56 | 0.56 | 0.552435340085787 | 0.00756465991421296 |
57 | 0.56 | 0.55869421590404 | 0.00130578409595961 |
58 | 0.56 | 0.560824477765203 | -0.000824477765202447 |
59 | 0.56 | 0.561475738016865 | -0.00147573801686529 |
60 | 0.56 | 0.561603678148112 | -0.0016036781481118 |
61 | 0.55 | 0.561552410815918 | -0.0115524108159177 |
62 | 0.55 | 0.554146021365909 | -0.00414602136590869 |
63 | 0.55 | 0.551473944145608 | -0.00147394414560753 |
64 | 0.54 | 0.550511183216496 | -0.0105111832164955 |
65 | 0.54 | 0.542866169716303 | -0.00286616971630327 |
66 | 0.54 | 0.540190198635046 | -0.000190198635046324 |
67 | 0.54 | 0.539300814813283 | 0.000699185186716966 |
68 | 0.55 | 0.539049556566023 | 0.0109504434339766 |
69 | 0.54 | 0.546321642367902 | -0.00632164236790167 |
70 | 0.54 | 0.54162315805192 | -0.00162315805192026 |
71 | 0.54 | 0.539986600448277 | 1.33995517230812e-05 |
72 | 0.54 | 0.539450219121166 | 0.000549780878834283 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.539306136944281 | 0.52843543303261 | 0.550176840855953 |
74 | 0.53879272620384 | 0.525334130404299 | 0.552251322003382 |
75 | 0.5382793154634 | 0.522325397941044 | 0.554233232985755 |
76 | 0.537765904722959 | 0.519349809884512 | 0.556181999561406 |
77 | 0.537252493982518 | 0.51637647207746 | 0.558128515887577 |
78 | 0.536739083242078 | 0.513387552155766 | 0.560090614328389 |
79 | 0.536225672501637 | 0.510372065695206 | 0.562079279308068 |
80 | 0.535712261761196 | 0.507322958698605 | 0.564101564823787 |
81 | 0.535198851020756 | 0.504235583592582 | 0.566162118448929 |
82 | 0.534685440280315 | 0.501106838692878 | 0.568264041867752 |
83 | 0.534172029539874 | 0.497934652594008 | 0.57040940648574 |
84 | 0.533658618799434 | 0.49471766047539 | 0.572599577123477 |