| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.224078933169873 |
| beta | 0.00356760108917428 |
| gamma | 0.456394163936053 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 37702 | 41487.9961256582 | -3785.99612565825 |
| 14 | 30364 | 32387.3251460408 | -2023.32514604084 |
| 15 | 32609 | 34051.6747755966 | -1442.67477559658 |
| 16 | 30212 | 30953.5163574249 | -741.516357424884 |
| 17 | 29965 | 30164.5326115703 | -199.532611570339 |
| 18 | 28352 | 28188.651397837 | 163.348602162972 |
| 19 | 25814 | 22069.8020373892 | 3744.19796261081 |
| 20 | 22414 | 20790.8378788415 | 1623.16212115846 |
| 21 | 20506 | 21117.6638115926 | -611.6638115926 |
| 22 | 28806 | 26744.4324642882 | 2061.56753571177 |
| 23 | 22228 | 22067.7357490893 | 160.264250910706 |
| 24 | 13971 | 13467.2689781787 | 503.731021821322 |
| 25 | 36845 | 37013.67860154 | -168.678601539999 |
| 26 | 35338 | 29777.9933090795 | 5560.00669092053 |
| 27 | 35022 | 33337.825015753 | 1684.17498424698 |
| 28 | 34777 | 31166.6395196981 | 3610.3604803019 |
| 29 | 26887 | 31553.7340762912 | -4666.73407629121 |
| 30 | 23970 | 28694.0589611525 | -4724.0589611525 |
| 31 | 22780 | 22814.6650124887 | -34.6650124887165 |
| 32 | 17351 | 20089.8278612945 | -2738.82786129448 |
| 33 | 21382 | 18713.4366169901 | 2668.5633830099 |
| 34 | 24561 | 25527.2165146009 | -966.216514600863 |
| 35 | 17409 | 20027.4665513452 | -2618.46655134523 |
| 36 | 11514 | 11953.9909454801 | -439.990945480115 |
| 37 | 31514 | 31792.8447258347 | -278.844725834664 |
| 38 | 27071 | 27175.8450752681 | -104.845075268124 |
| 39 | 29462 | 27861.773291836 | 1600.22670816396 |
| 40 | 26105 | 26601.6282610596 | -496.628261059584 |
| 41 | 22397 | 23713.7300544687 | -1316.73005446875 |
| 42 | 23843 | 21826.1881912508 | 2016.81180874916 |
| 43 | 21705 | 19534.148482842 | 2170.85151715801 |
| 44 | 18089 | 16744.0643626894 | 1344.93563731056 |
| 45 | 20764 | 18067.2663111468 | 2696.7336888532 |
| 46 | 25316 | 23196.4877201755 | 2119.51227982451 |
| 47 | 17704 | 18076.2165039111 | -372.216503911113 |
| 48 | 15548 | 11465.6514896359 | 4082.34851036408 |
| 49 | 28029 | 33577.8526220028 | -5548.8526220028 |
| 50 | 29383 | 27762.1573890863 | 1620.84261091373 |
| 51 | 36438 | 29507.6931803218 | 6930.30681967818 |
| 52 | 32034 | 28553.2115344233 | 3480.78846557666 |
| 53 | 22679 | 25956.2430589541 | -3277.24305895415 |
| 54 | 24319 | 24795.9479362809 | -476.947936280892 |
| 55 | 18004 | 21811.7530556528 | -3807.75305565284 |
| 56 | 17537 | 17361.4742232388 | 175.525776761231 |
| 57 | 20366 | 18866.64477894 | 1499.35522106001 |
| 58 | 22782 | 23418.0739512051 | -636.073951205133 |
| 59 | 19169 | 17097.5028210391 | 2071.49717896091 |
| 60 | 13807 | 12592.3592362595 | 1214.64076374055 |
| 61 | 29743 | 29328.3751331316 | 414.624866868413 |
| 62 | 25591 | 27444.057615925 | -1853.05761592503 |
| 63 | 29096 | 29974.3184161578 | -878.318416157752 |
| 64 | 26482 | 26404.7775533059 | 77.2224466941334 |
| 65 | 22405 | 21372.7879156124 | 1032.21208438762 |
| 66 | 27044 | 22088.8323219225 | 4955.16767807754 |
| 67 | 17970 | 19302.8868296454 | -1332.88682964537 |
| 68 | 18730 | 16885.2040979651 | 1844.79590203493 |
| 69 | 19684 | 19211.5552080175 | 472.444791982474 |
| 70 | 19785 | 22705.4830677434 | -2920.48306774341 |
| 71 | 18479 | 17036.5246479582 | 1442.47535204181 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 72 | 12344.4445444619 | 9486.69955403195 | 15202.1895348918 |
| 73 | 27352.2161878424 | 23563.1795504271 | 31141.2528252576 |
| 74 | 24755.3053429653 | 20958.8813114582 | 28551.7293744724 |
| 75 | 27830.0172295698 | 23601.7057208549 | 32058.3287382847 |
| 76 | 24955.2445427699 | 20806.369035491 | 29104.1200500488 |
| 77 | 20498.9123835289 | 16587.6797636145 | 24410.1450034433 |
| 78 | 22157.2648505821 | 17889.4401652207 | 26425.0895359435 |
| 79 | 16693.5768250291 | 12852.5778213817 | 20534.5758286765 |
| 80 | 15768.1691564172 | 11851.1603831815 | 19685.177929653 |
| 81 | 16997.3241573102 | 12728.7602044131 | 21265.8881102073 |
| 82 | 18850.0096093007 | 14111.2453721399 | 23588.7738464615 |
| 83 | 15712.2021435858 | 12379.6602336321 | 19044.7440535396 |
