Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0335395346302571 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 2.08 | 2.09 | -0.0100000000000002 |
4 | 2.08 | 2.0896646046537 | -0.00966460465369767 |
5 | 2.09 | 2.08934045831123 | 0.000659541688772691 |
6 | 2.09 | 2.09936257903254 | -0.00936257903253779 |
7 | 2.09 | 2.09904856248885 | -0.00904856248884744 |
8 | 2.1 | 2.0987450779139 | 0.00125492208610156 |
9 | 2.1 | 2.10878716741666 | -0.00878716741666397 |
10 | 2.1 | 2.10849244991079 | -0.00849244991079079 |
11 | 2.11 | 2.10820761709291 | 0.00179238290708783 |
12 | 2.11 | 2.11826773278149 | -0.00826773278149506 |
13 | 2.11 | 2.11799043687156 | -0.00799043687155621 |
14 | 2.13 | 2.11772244133739 | 0.0122775586626078 |
15 | 2.18 | 2.13813422494133 | 0.0418657750586688 |
16 | 2.2 | 2.18953838355373 | 0.0104616164462659 |
17 | 2.21 | 2.20988926130082 | 0.000110738699177659 |
18 | 2.21 | 2.21989297542526 | -0.00989297542525813 |
19 | 2.22 | 2.21956116963339 | 0.00043883036661363 |
20 | 2.22 | 2.22957588779966 | -0.00957588779966434 |
21 | 2.23 | 2.22925471697919 | 0.000745283020807896 |
22 | 2.23 | 2.23927971342488 | -0.00927971342487766 |
23 | 2.23 | 2.23896847615511 | -0.00896847615510543 |
24 | 2.23 | 2.23866767763852 | -0.00866767763852039 |
25 | 2.24 | 2.2383769677642 | 0.00162303223580063 |
26 | 2.25 | 2.24843140351008 | 0.00156859648992169 |
27 | 2.26 | 2.25848401350637 | 0.00151598649362716 |
28 | 2.27 | 2.26853485898787 | 0.00146514101212558 |
29 | 2.28 | 2.27858399913559 | 0.00141600086441063 |
30 | 2.29 | 2.28863149114562 | 0.00136850885438289 |
31 | 2.3 | 2.29867739029573 | 0.0013226097042689 |
32 | 2.3 | 2.30872175000971 | -0.00872175000970943 |
33 | 2.3 | 2.30842922657322 | -0.00842922657322243 |
34 | 2.32 | 2.30814651423666 | 0.0118534857633366 |
35 | 2.32 | 2.32854407463291 | -0.0085440746329124 |
36 | 2.32 | 2.32825751034588 | -0.00825751034587796 |
37 | 2.33 | 2.32798055729167 | 0.00201944270832755 |
38 | 2.34 | 2.33804828846032 | 0.00195171153967699 |
39 | 2.34 | 2.3481137479571 | -0.00811374795709607 |
40 | 2.34 | 2.34784161662651 | -0.00784161662650762 |
41 | 2.35 | 2.34757861245411 | 0.00242138754589449 |
42 | 2.35 | 2.35765982466555 | -0.00765982466555437 |
43 | 2.36 | 2.35740291771092 | 0.00259708228907751 |
44 | 2.37 | 2.36749002264229 | 0.00250997735770575 |
45 | 2.37 | 2.3775742061148 | -0.00757420611480475 |
46 | 2.37 | 2.37732017076652 | -0.00732017076652047 |
47 | 2.38 | 2.3770746556456 | 0.00292534435440261 |
48 | 2.38 | 2.38717277033388 | -0.00717277033387731 |
49 | 2.38 | 2.38693219895487 | -0.00693219895486941 |
50 | 2.39 | 2.38669969622796 | 0.0033003037720416 |
51 | 2.4 | 2.39681038688061 | 0.00318961311938848 |
52 | 2.41 | 2.40691736502029 | 0.00308263497971417 |
53 | 2.42 | 2.41702075516294 | 0.00297924483705891 |
54 | 2.43 | 2.42712067764833 | 0.00287932235167476 |
55 | 2.43 | 2.43721724878005 | -0.00721724878005103 |
56 | 2.43 | 2.43697518561466 | -0.00697518561465715 |
57 | 2.43 | 2.43674124113518 | -0.00674124113518193 |
58 | 2.44 | 2.43651514304468 | 0.00348485695532208 |
59 | 2.44 | 2.44663202352521 | -0.00663202352521219 |
60 | 2.45 | 2.44640958854252 | 0.00359041145748051 |
61 | 2.45 | 2.45653000927193 | -0.00653000927193448 |
62 | 2.48 | 2.45631099579982 | 0.0236890042001772 |
63 | 2.49 | 2.48710551397655 | 0.00289448602344944 |
64 | 2.49 | 2.49720259369077 | -0.00720259369077114 |
65 | 2.5 | 2.49696102205025 | 0.00303897794974795 |
66 | 2.51 | 2.50706294795644 | 0.00293705204356165 |
67 | 2.52 | 2.51716145531516 | 0.00283854468483646 |
68 | 2.53 | 2.52725665878292 | 0.0027433412170792 |
69 | 2.54 | 2.53734866917067 | 0.00265133082932678 |
70 | 2.54 | 2.54743759357284 | -0.00743759357283968 |
71 | 2.56 | 2.54718814014564 | 0.0128118598543621 |
72 | 2.56 | 2.5676178439629 | -0.00761784396290111 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 2.5673623450215 | 2.5504673989403 | 2.5842572911027 |
74 | 2.574724690043 | 2.5504276430431 | 2.5990217370429 |
75 | 2.5820870350645 | 2.55183205116391 | 2.61234201896509 |
76 | 2.589449380086 | 2.55393693074563 | 2.62496182942637 |
77 | 2.5968117251075 | 2.55645954181792 | 2.63716390839708 |
78 | 2.604174070129 | 2.55925747913621 | 2.64909066112178 |
79 | 2.6115364151505 | 2.56224766805724 | 2.66082516224375 |
80 | 2.618898760172 | 2.56537696826999 | 2.672420552074 |
81 | 2.6262611051935 | 2.5686091565457 | 2.68391305384129 |
82 | 2.633623450215 | 2.57191836375675 | 2.69532853667325 |
83 | 2.6409857952365 | 2.57528544572802 | 2.70668614474497 |
84 | 2.64834814025799 | 2.57869583192315 | 2.71800044859284 |