Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.74609464521476 |
beta | 0.0285617541446278 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 79.97 | 79.788714160667 | 0.181285839333043 |
14 | 79.98 | 79.9368291886952 | 0.043170811304833 |
15 | 80.25 | 80.2168878892657 | 0.0331121107342511 |
16 | 80.38 | 80.3401291199469 | 0.0398708800531153 |
17 | 80.13 | 80.1002508056256 | 0.0297491943743893 |
18 | 80.15 | 80.1384011221715 | 0.0115988778284617 |
19 | 80.15 | 80.3970072819908 | -0.247007281990776 |
20 | 80.18 | 79.766204290153 | 0.413795709847051 |
21 | 80.47 | 80.264546285361 | 0.205453714638978 |
22 | 80.83 | 80.6939569851108 | 0.136043014889154 |
23 | 80.62 | 80.9875078084567 | -0.367507808456736 |
24 | 80.66 | 80.7738861281105 | -0.113886128110536 |
25 | 80.66 | 80.7624260594944 | -0.102426059494391 |
26 | 80.67 | 80.6649692303315 | 0.00503076966855076 |
27 | 80.8 | 80.9167007550875 | -0.116700755087535 |
28 | 81.04 | 80.9280485750036 | 0.111951424996391 |
29 | 81.24 | 80.7361838236884 | 0.503816176311545 |
30 | 81.26 | 81.1323683621292 | 0.127631637870806 |
31 | 81.26 | 81.4254459503386 | -0.165445950338608 |
32 | 81.47 | 81.0317965816836 | 0.438203418316363 |
33 | 81.94 | 81.5106720088571 | 0.429327991142856 |
34 | 82.83 | 82.111743599678 | 0.718256400321962 |
35 | 82.29 | 82.7428702284517 | -0.452870228451644 |
36 | 82.32 | 82.5610074910535 | -0.241007491053509 |
37 | 82.32 | 82.4849281794536 | -0.164928179453639 |
38 | 82.3 | 82.392677025697 | -0.0926770256970144 |
39 | 82.54 | 82.5674329709407 | -0.02743297094068 |
40 | 82.54 | 82.7311362521813 | -0.191136252181266 |
41 | 82.62 | 82.426583553832 | 0.193416446168044 |
42 | 82.63 | 82.5056214788873 | 0.124378521112689 |
43 | 82.63 | 82.7349406665972 | -0.104940666597244 |
44 | 82.63 | 82.5496275199558 | 0.0803724800442325 |
45 | 82.71 | 82.7657557965501 | -0.0557557965501445 |
46 | 83.25 | 83.0751444524521 | 0.174855547547907 |
47 | 83.14 | 82.9855584742385 | 0.154441525761541 |
48 | 83.34 | 83.308504481367 | 0.0314955186330366 |
49 | 83.34 | 83.4581333228188 | -0.118133322818835 |
50 | 83.37 | 83.4223781505626 | -0.0523781505625465 |
51 | 83.33 | 83.650684738237 | -0.320684738236992 |
52 | 83.26 | 83.552892915403 | -0.292892915402973 |
53 | 83.66 | 83.2647431365141 | 0.395256863485926 |
54 | 83.64 | 83.4753840975722 | 0.164615902427798 |
55 | 83.64 | 83.677707978853 | -0.0377079788530068 |
56 | 83.71 | 83.5905798205201 | 0.119420179479846 |
57 | 83.87 | 83.8053250895876 | 0.0646749104124495 |
58 | 84.17 | 84.2737382826334 | -0.103738282633401 |
59 | 84.35 | 83.9677311471705 | 0.382268852829498 |
60 | 84.44 | 84.4356899733908 | 0.00431002660918978 |
61 | 84.44 | 84.5314911880881 | -0.0914911880880709 |
62 | 84.45 | 84.5371265735377 | -0.0871265735377449 |
63 | 84.67 | 84.6769727990631 | -0.00697279906312076 |
64 | 84.95 | 84.832248975166 | 0.117751024833979 |
65 | 84.89 | 85.0452944866619 | -0.155294486661901 |
66 | 84.93 | 84.791169111216 | 0.138830888784 |
67 | 84.93 | 84.9294953786535 | 0.000504621346522072 |
68 | 84.93 | 84.9174240991219 | 0.0125759008780619 |
69 | 85.45 | 85.0449021849897 | 0.405097815010279 |
70 | 85.77 | 85.7429226105355 | 0.0270773894644947 |
71 | 85.79 | 85.670037590117 | 0.119962409883001 |
72 | 85.9 | 85.8566637849733 | 0.0433362150266703 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 85.9680868675962 | 85.5343805130665 | 86.4017932221259 |
74 | 86.05600907131 | 85.5093396610791 | 86.6026784815409 |
75 | 86.2989064499015 | 85.6534455123308 | 86.9443673874721 |
76 | 86.5082806255076 | 85.7727671040849 | 87.2437941469302 |
77 | 86.5761925313025 | 85.7572164914298 | 87.3951685711753 |
78 | 86.5255995415007 | 85.6281547620069 | 87.4230443209945 |
79 | 86.5365732921788 | 85.5631799964759 | 87.5099665878818 |
80 | 86.5383351799612 | 85.4913884133239 | 87.5852819465985 |
81 | 86.7709112130742 | 85.6496672241629 | 87.8921552019854 |
82 | 87.0779360936462 | 85.882736784489 | 88.2731354028034 |
83 | 87.0093652013269 | 85.7458940683443 | 88.2728363343094 |
84 | 87.0876620006023 | 82.52612983442 | 91.6491941667845 |