| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0632137222254264 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 58605 | 124275 | -65670 |
| 3 | 21828 | 120123.754861456 | -98295.7548614562 |
| 4 | 42811 | 113910.114317706 | -71099.1143177055 |
| 5 | 65963 | 109415.674654752 | -43452.6746547523 |
| 6 | 128457 | 106668.869349175 | 21788.1306508251 |
| 7 | 26867 | 108046.178187947 | -81179.1781879475 |
| 8 | 143540 | 102914.540167486 | 40625.4598325138 |
| 9 | 107458 | 105482.626700619 | 1975.37329938107 |
| 10 | 258558 | 105607.497399658 | 152950.502600342 |
| 11 | 22475 | 115276.067985275 | -92801.0679852749 |
| 12 | 294584 | 109409.767051431 | 185174.232948569 |
| 13 | 159848 | 121115.319576348 | 38732.6804236519 |
| 14 | 289458 | 123563.756477695 | 165894.243522305 |
| 15 | 117950 | 134050.549106511 | -16100.5491065113 |
| 16 | 78351 | 133032.773467615 | -54681.7734676155 |
| 17 | 84589 | 129576.13502884 | -44987.1350288399 |
| 18 | 44324 | 126732.330771409 | -82408.3307714091 |
| 19 | 52285 | 121522.993440964 | -69237.9934409642 |
| 20 | 185486 | 117146.202156141 | 68339.7978438588 |
| 21 | 23846 | 121466.215153985 | -97620.2151539846 |
| 22 | 13257 | 115295.277989654 | -102038.277989654 |
| 23 | 166999 | 108845.058628455 | 58153.9413715446 |
| 24 | 148488 | 112521.18572463 | 35966.81427537 |
| 25 | 74747 | 114794.781931567 | -40047.7819315667 |
| 26 | 55700 | 112263.2125688 | -56563.2125688002 |
| 27 | 218584 | 108687.641361298 | 109896.358638702 |
| 28 | 187888 | 115634.599249871 | 72253.4007501289 |
| 29 | 44788 | 120202.005654732 | -75414.0056547321 |
| 30 | 18840 | 115434.805649367 | -96594.8056493672 |
| 31 | 48787 | 109328.688436629 | -60541.688436629 |
| 32 | 69100 | 105501.622960738 | -36401.6229607376 |
| 33 | 41892 | 103200.540878343 | -61308.5408783429 |
| 34 | 90588 | 99324.9998052131 | -8736.99980521311 |
| 35 | 148574 | 98772.7015264428 | 49801.2984735572 |
| 36 | 50201 | 101920.826974616 | -51719.8269746158 |
| 37 | 86828 | 98651.4241986953 | -11823.4241986953 |
| 38 | 102785 | 97904.0215456456 | 4880.97845435442 |
| 39 | 118844 | 98212.5663618474 | 20631.4336381526 |
| 40 | 145288 | 99516.7560769619 | 45771.2439230381 |
| 41 | 56790 | 102410.126776225 | -45620.1267762251 |
| 42 | 287525 | 99526.3087543041 | 187998.691245696 |
| 43 | 187880 | 111410.405801453 | 76469.5941985468 |
| 44 | 87740 | 116244.333487811 | -28504.3334878112 |
| 45 | 55258 | 114442.468468492 | -59184.4684684918 |
| 46 | 58769 | 110701.197918665 | -51932.197918665 |
| 47 | 43366 | 107418.370384879 | -64052.3703848787 |
| 48 | 77051 | 103369.381635489 | -26318.3816354888 |
| 49 | 91574 | 101705.69876936 | -10131.6987693603 |
| 50 | 15533 | 101065.236377682 | -85532.2363776822 |
| 51 | 18425 | 95658.4253459839 | -77233.4253459839 |
| 52 | 65192 | 90776.2130496447 | -25584.2130496447 |
| 53 | 81059 | 89158.9397125683 | -8099.9397125683 |
| 54 | 73322 | 88646.9123735353 | -15324.9123735353 |
| 55 | 91261 | 87678.1676196256 | 3582.83238037436 |
| 56 | 86166 | 87904.6517904989 | -1738.65179049889 |
| 57 | 61842 | 87794.7451391676 | -25952.7451391676 |
| 58 | 25192 | 86154.1755169529 | -60962.1755169529 |
| 59 | 21059 | 82300.5294875666 | -61241.5294875666 |
| 60 | 15855 | 78429.2244538793 | -62574.2244538793 |
| 61 | 12618 | 74473.6748107803 | -61855.6748107803 |
| 62 | 101667 | 70563.5473652253 | 31103.4526347747 |
| 63 | 224275 | 72529.7123803316 | 151745.287619668 |
| 64 | 55700 | 82122.0968409388 | -26422.0968409388 |
| 65 | 60748 | 80451.8577506224 | -19703.8577506224 |
| 66 | 41848 | 79206.3035600052 | -37358.3035600052 |
| 67 | 61781 | 76844.7461359499 | -15063.7461359499 |
| 68 | 120077 | 75892.5106720376 | 44184.4893279624 |
| 69 | 42032 | 78685.5767070877 | -36653.5767070877 |
| 70 | 46485 | 76368.5676905575 | -29883.5676905575 |
| 71 | 36861 | 74479.5161434619 | -37618.5161434619 |
| 72 | 55027 | 72101.5097134364 | -17074.5097134364 |
| 73 | 48999 | 71022.1663992759 | -22023.1663992759 |
| 74 | 68352 | 69630.0000759877 | -1278.0000759877 |
| 75 | 126987 | 69549.2129341801 | 57437.7870658199 |
| 76 | 86526 | 73180.0692510021 | 13345.9307489979 |
| 77 | 125340 | 74023.715210209 | 51316.284789791 |
| 78 | 69029 | 77267.6085825517 | -8238.60858255171 |
| 79 | 153287 | 76746.8154680903 | 76540.1845319097 |
| 80 | 135724 | 81585.2054321733 | 54138.7945678267 |
| 81 | 92108 | 85007.5201536033 | 7100.47984639669 |
| 82 | 119906 | 85456.3679142807 | 34449.6320857193 |
| 83 | 79798 | 87634.0573877155 | -7836.05738771547 |
| 84 | 97206 | 87138.7110326659 | 10067.2889673341 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 87775.1018410101 | -41300.2878764155 | 216850.491558436 |
| 86 | 87775.1018410101 | -41557.9217528128 | 217108.125434833 |
| 87 | 87775.1018410101 | -41815.0434368442 | 217365.247118864 |
| 88 | 87775.1018410101 | -42071.6559712296 | 217621.85965325 |
| 89 | 87775.1018410101 | -42327.7623686817 | 217877.966050702 |
| 90 | 87775.1018410101 | -42583.3656123186 | 218133.569294339 |
| 91 | 87775.1018410101 | -42838.4686560696 | 218388.67233809 |
| 92 | 87775.1018410101 | -43093.0744250732 | 218643.278107093 |
| 93 | 87775.1018410101 | -43347.1858160686 | 218897.389498089 |
| 94 | 87775.1018410101 | -43600.8056977801 | 219151.0093798 |
| 95 | 87775.1018410101 | -43853.9369112949 | 219404.140593315 |
| 96 | 87775.1018410101 | -44106.5822704345 | 219656.785952455 |
