Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.806023377868737 |
beta | 0.0207897814954087 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 103.48 | 103.255205662393 | 0.224794337606838 |
14 | 103.93 | 103.870288791902 | 0.0597112080975819 |
15 | 103.89 | 103.857478310096 | 0.0325216899038026 |
16 | 104.4 | 104.324547408574 | 0.0754525914264406 |
17 | 104.79 | 104.644567513485 | 0.145432486515446 |
18 | 106.12 | 105.923846735919 | 0.196153264080763 |
19 | 106.57 | 106.246878374184 | 0.323121625815958 |
20 | 106.44 | 106.744330712133 | -0.304330712133307 |
21 | 106.54 | 106.300942112266 | 0.23905788773412 |
22 | 107.1 | 106.389543332114 | 0.710456667885794 |
23 | 108.1 | 107.340008146903 | 0.759991853096594 |
24 | 108.4 | 108.11688470041 | 0.28311529958988 |
25 | 108.84 | 106.787736626921 | 2.05226337307938 |
26 | 109.62 | 108.920409358555 | 0.699590641444772 |
27 | 110.42 | 109.505434124782 | 0.914565875217562 |
28 | 110.67 | 110.793911103266 | -0.123911103265769 |
29 | 111.66 | 111.065605180909 | 0.594394819090908 |
30 | 112.28 | 112.822911776185 | -0.542911776185022 |
31 | 112.87 | 112.668798650292 | 0.201201349707588 |
32 | 112.18 | 113.038156328382 | -0.858156328382449 |
33 | 112.36 | 112.336382554156 | 0.0236174458440672 |
34 | 112.16 | 112.42177047261 | -0.261770472609925 |
35 | 111.49 | 112.660910881008 | -1.17091088100841 |
36 | 111.25 | 111.819280283477 | -0.569280283477269 |
37 | 111.36 | 110.162319670928 | 1.19768032907179 |
38 | 111.74 | 111.345536173453 | 0.394463826547309 |
39 | 111.1 | 111.722953308104 | -0.622953308103874 |
40 | 111.33 | 111.541580883532 | -0.211580883531553 |
41 | 111.25 | 111.851343797411 | -0.601343797410863 |
42 | 111.04 | 112.373607342803 | -1.33360734280257 |
43 | 110.97 | 111.662627051529 | -0.692627051528746 |
44 | 111.31 | 111.027180986713 | 0.282819013286939 |
45 | 111.02 | 111.356356358713 | -0.33635635871272 |
46 | 111.07 | 111.030459140907 | 0.0395408590925399 |
47 | 111.36 | 111.275381380286 | 0.0846186197140355 |
48 | 111.54 | 111.522747992598 | 0.0172520074016944 |
49 | 112.05 | 110.651432529881 | 1.39856747011892 |
50 | 112.52 | 111.814267176698 | 0.705732823301815 |
51 | 112.94 | 112.223938846869 | 0.716061153130795 |
52 | 113.33 | 113.202797533273 | 0.12720246672724 |
53 | 113.78 | 113.716857382095 | 0.0631426179054273 |
54 | 113.77 | 114.650639863553 | -0.880639863553412 |
55 | 113.82 | 114.454656900469 | -0.634656900469238 |
56 | 113.89 | 114.081681032811 | -0.191681032811189 |
57 | 114.25 | 113.926872674197 | 0.323127325803398 |
58 | 114.41 | 114.235080943534 | 0.174919056465555 |
59 | 114.55 | 114.629764693319 | -0.0797646933192055 |
60 | 115 | 114.760711871846 | 0.239288128154499 |
61 | 115.66 | 114.369171198449 | 1.29082880155066 |
62 | 116.33 | 115.341832430676 | 0.988167569323679 |
63 | 116.91 | 116.016949531992 | 0.893050468008383 |
64 | 117.2 | 117.062999712296 | 0.137000287703756 |
65 | 117.59 | 117.611453690742 | -0.0214536907416516 |
66 | 117.95 | 118.331483217357 | -0.381483217356688 |
67 | 118.09 | 118.631416902825 | -0.541416902824992 |
68 | 117.99 | 118.466953821027 | -0.476953821026854 |
69 | 118.31 | 118.224721587653 | 0.0852784123471082 |
70 | 118.49 | 118.351135361937 | 0.138864638063438 |
71 | 118.96 | 118.705417777481 | 0.25458222251936 |
72 | 119.01 | 119.211409906399 | -0.201409906398538 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 118.704910554789 | 117.476594668219 | 119.933226441359 |
74 | 118.593073842372 | 117.002431976301 | 120.183715708444 |
75 | 118.451344963977 | 116.555678721356 | 120.347011206597 |
76 | 118.614045314487 | 116.446135236821 | 120.781955392153 |
77 | 119.002167555283 | 116.583523375971 | 121.420811734594 |
78 | 119.650841511819 | 116.996709920707 | 122.304973102931 |
79 | 120.214818291064 | 117.336553895457 | 123.09308268667 |
80 | 120.49590886943 | 117.402260333144 | 123.589557405716 |
81 | 120.751819462887 | 117.44969471906 | 124.053944206715 |
82 | 120.823109291074 | 117.31806251251 | 124.328156069638 |
83 | 121.088801079289 | 117.3853589142 | 124.792243244377 |
84 | 121.297767136527 | 117.399656313294 | 125.19587795976 |