Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.752890942654235 |
beta | 0.0947903596727852 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 1.58 | 1.58 | 0 |
4 | 1.58 | 1.58 | 0 |
5 | 1.59 | 1.58 | 0.01 |
6 | 1.59 | 1.58824257745903 | 0.001757422540972 |
7 | 1.6 | 1.59040481463373 | 0.00959518536626591 |
8 | 1.6 | 1.59915281015644 | 0.000847189843556029 |
9 | 1.61 | 1.60137498031461 | 0.00862501968539497 |
10 | 1.62 | 1.6100685481971 | 0.00993145180290478 |
11 | 1.62 | 1.62045449295484 | -0.00045449295484179 |
12 | 1.63 | 1.62298851826429 | 0.00701148173571209 |
13 | 1.63 | 1.63164399533385 | -0.00164399533385118 |
14 | 1.63 | 1.63366551542186 | -0.00366551542185611 |
15 | 1.63 | 1.63390345522729 | -0.00390345522729252 |
16 | 1.63 | 1.63368367518712 | -0.0036836751871232 |
17 | 1.63 | 1.63336647342626 | -0.0033664734262624 |
18 | 1.64 | 1.63304783555149 | 0.00695216444850622 |
19 | 1.64 | 1.64099416042552 | -0.000994160425515922 |
20 | 1.64 | 1.64288681922301 | -0.00288681922301315 |
21 | 1.65 | 1.64314848929484 | 0.00685151070516299 |
22 | 1.65 | 1.65123103018261 | -0.00123103018261417 |
23 | 1.66 | 1.65314044455352 | 0.00685955544648431 |
24 | 1.67 | 1.66163073210926 | 0.0083692678907441 |
25 | 1.67 | 1.67185495638519 | -0.00185495638518529 |
26 | 1.68 | 1.67424907250073 | 0.00575092749927442 |
27 | 1.68 | 1.68278001501509 | -0.00278001501509295 |
28 | 1.69 | 1.68468968739348 | 0.00531031260652104 |
29 | 1.7 | 1.69306947419626 | 0.00693052580373843 |
30 | 1.71 | 1.70316371431184 | 0.00683628568815764 |
31 | 1.72 | 1.71367488575363 | 0.00632511424637427 |
32 | 1.72 | 1.72425260403069 | -0.00425260403069272 |
33 | 1.73 | 1.72656295926786 | 0.0034370407321449 |
34 | 1.73 | 1.73490806900887 | -0.00490806900887497 |
35 | 1.73 | 1.73661994801514 | -0.00661994801513832 |
36 | 1.73 | 1.73657052429515 | -0.00657052429515392 |
37 | 1.74 | 1.73608939393169 | 0.00391060606831406 |
38 | 1.75 | 1.74377849914151 | 0.00622150085848872 |
39 | 1.75 | 1.75365146473596 | -0.00365146473596467 |
40 | 1.75 | 1.75583057059184 | -0.00583057059183645 |
41 | 1.76 | 1.75595293820148 | 0.00404706179851688 |
42 | 1.76 | 1.7638009116358 | -0.00380091163580443 |
43 | 1.76 | 1.76546895804036 | -0.00546895804035641 |
44 | 1.77 | 1.76549084536255 | 0.0045091546374465 |
45 | 1.78 | 1.77334696729648 | 0.00665303270352013 |
46 | 1.78 | 1.78329200128447 | -0.00329200128446661 |
47 | 1.79 | 1.78551456965055 | 0.00448543034945303 |
48 | 1.79 | 1.79391280667615 | -0.00391280667615268 |
49 | 1.79 | 1.79570884260671 | -0.00570884260670956 |
50 | 1.79 | 1.79574523750538 | -0.00574523750537836 |
51 | 1.79 | 1.79534421177982 | -0.00534421177981814 |
52 | 1.83 | 1.79486371538019 | 0.0351362846198056 |
53 | 1.83 | 1.82736818238534 | 0.00263181761465736 |
54 | 1.83 | 1.8355881549964 | -0.00558815499640275 |
55 | 1.83 | 1.83722057592158 | -0.00722057592157888 |
56 | 1.84 | 1.83710865249645 | 0.00289134750354614 |
57 | 1.84 | 1.84481625085933 | -0.00481625085932746 |
58 | 1.84 | 1.8463771477977 | -0.00637714779770349 |
59 | 1.85 | 1.84630774291659 | 0.00369225708340615 |
60 | 1.85 | 1.8540830063532 | -0.00408300635320469 |
61 | 1.85 | 1.85571295326057 | -0.00571295326056842 |
62 | 1.86 | 1.85570801269306 | 0.00429198730694447 |
63 | 1.86 | 1.8635420066743 | -0.00354200667429727 |
64 | 1.86 | 1.86522507584882 | -0.00522507584882459 |
65 | 1.87 | 1.86526808052593 | 0.00473191947407225 |
66 | 1.87 | 1.87314531876378 | -0.00314531876378465 |
67 | 1.88 | 1.87486738433386 | 0.00513261566613932 |
68 | 1.88 | 1.88318813013251 | -0.00318813013250763 |
69 | 1.88 | 1.88501673512733 | -0.00501673512732759 |
70 | 1.89 | 1.88511057163507 | 0.00488942836492678 |
71 | 1.89 | 1.89301161178471 | -0.00301161178470699 |
72 | 1.9 | 1.89474910126243 | 0.00525089873756635 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 1.90308209993305 | 1.89008967364679 | 1.91607452621931 |
74 | 1.90746174450335 | 1.89062463860428 | 1.92429885040242 |
75 | 1.91184138907366 | 1.8913745268557 | 1.93230825129162 |
76 | 1.91622103364396 | 1.89220571382407 | 1.94023635346386 |
77 | 1.92060067821427 | 1.89305549625199 | 1.94814586017654 |
78 | 1.92498032278457 | 1.89388986858769 | 1.95607077698146 |
79 | 1.92935996735488 | 1.89468875497598 | 1.96403117973378 |
80 | 1.93373961192519 | 1.8954396585366 | 1.97203956531377 |
81 | 1.93811925649549 | 1.89613454224525 | 1.98010397074573 |
82 | 1.9424989010658 | 1.89676814692362 | 1.98822965520797 |
83 | 1.9468785456361 | 1.89733701897361 | 1.9964200722986 |
84 | 1.95125819020641 | 1.89783891744029 | 2.00467746297253 |