Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.967277668528082 |
beta | 0.112371825427416 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 0.99 | 1 | -0.01 |
4 | 0.99 | 0.999240275741642 | -0.00924027574164232 |
5 | 1 | 0.998211046263439 | 0.00178895373656063 |
6 | 1 | 1.0080445940528 | -0.00804459405280378 |
7 | 1 | 1.0074919654649 | -0.00749196546490416 |
8 | 1 | 1.0066595448011 | -0.00665954480110487 |
9 | 1 | 1.00590844845028 | -0.00590844845028404 |
10 | 1.01 | 1.00524165345616 | 0.00475834654384322 |
11 | 1.02 | 1.01540981837738 | 0.00459018162261526 |
12 | 1.02 | 1.02591424980315 | -0.00591424980314748 |
13 | 1.01 | 1.02561513134318 | -0.0156151313431752 |
14 | 1.03 | 1.01423528389282 | 0.0157647161071761 |
15 | 1.03 | 1.03492200411431 | -0.00492200411430921 |
16 | 1.03 | 1.03506392578779 | -0.00506392578779136 |
17 | 1.03 | 1.03451814761131 | -0.00451814761130587 |
18 | 1.03 | 1.03400918951881 | -0.00400918951881368 |
19 | 1.03 | 1.03355675734166 | -0.00355675734165772 |
20 | 1.03 | 1.03315535182993 | -0.00315535182993454 |
21 | 1.04 | 1.03279924670435 | 0.00720075329564973 |
22 | 1.06 | 1.04324305493158 | 0.016756945068424 |
23 | 1.07 | 1.06475174613421 | 0.00524825386579164 |
24 | 1.08 | 1.07569879502278 | 0.00430120497721975 |
25 | 1.08 | 1.08619730310156 | -0.00619730310156164 |
26 | 1.09 | 1.08586722440629 | 0.00413277559371017 |
27 | 1.09 | 1.09597841118726 | -0.00597841118725762 |
28 | 1.09 | 1.09565945083959 | -0.00565945083959418 |
29 | 1.1 | 1.09503386107787 | 0.00496613892213271 |
30 | 1.1 | 1.1052259602725 | -0.00522596027249689 |
31 | 1.1 | 1.10499143503722 | -0.00499143503721955 |
32 | 1.1 | 1.10444121800474 | -0.00444121800474462 |
33 | 1.1 | 1.10394047650745 | -0.00394047650745044 |
34 | 1.11 | 1.10349578194054 | 0.00650421805945989 |
35 | 1.12 | 1.11386098158625 | 0.00613901841375175 |
36 | 1.13 | 1.1245402108867 | 0.00545978911330125 |
37 | 1.13 | 1.13515588730563 | -0.00515588730563454 |
38 | 1.13 | 1.13494283906882 | -0.00494283906882198 |
39 | 1.13 | 1.1343986069408 | -0.00439860694080085 |
40 | 1.13 | 1.13390269288279 | -0.00390269288278788 |
41 | 1.14 | 1.13346226316286 | 0.00653773683714109 |
42 | 1.14 | 1.14383124567971 | -0.00383124567970872 |
43 | 1.14 | 1.14375410664331 | -0.00375410664330955 |
44 | 1.14 | 1.14334353076369 | -0.00334353076368954 |
45 | 1.14 | 1.14296667149875 | -0.00296667149875218 |
46 | 1.14 | 1.1426318781464 | -0.00263187814639831 |
47 | 1.15 | 1.14233485157096 | 0.0076651484290382 |
48 | 1.15 | 1.15283107030241 | -0.00283107030240681 |
49 | 1.15 | 1.1528668085515 | -0.00286680855149779 |
50 | 1.15 | 1.15255637093058 | -0.00255637093057826 |
51 | 1.15 | 1.15226834856996 | -0.0022683485699575 |
52 | 1.15 | 1.1520123662095 | -0.00201236620950129 |
53 | 1.16 | 1.1517852562131 | 0.00821474378690468 |
54 | 1.15 | 1.16234350091206 | -0.0123435009120556 |
55 | 1.16 | 1.15167454077361 | 0.00832545922638706 |
56 | 1.16 | 1.16190313797887 | -0.0019031379788701 |
57 | 1.16 | 1.16203098040638 | -0.00203098040637695 |
58 | 1.17 | 1.1618144067863 | 0.00818559321370183 |
59 | 1.17 | 1.17236982774558 | -0.00236982774557748 |
60 | 1.17 | 1.17245763787737 | -0.00245763787736597 |
61 | 1.18 | 1.17219337887697 | 0.00780662112302544 |
62 | 1.19 | 1.18270604718001 | 0.00729395281998957 |
63 | 1.2 | 1.19351563731374 | 0.00648436268626029 |
64 | 1.21 | 1.20424694521893 | 0.00575305478107002 |
65 | 1.21 | 1.21489620221182 | -0.00489620221181797 |
66 | 1.21 | 1.21471247921793 | -0.00471247921792606 |
67 | 1.21 | 1.21419424558831 | -0.00419424558831083 |
68 | 1.22 | 1.21372139526939 | 0.0062786047306076 |
69 | 1.22 | 1.22406115060723 | -0.00406115060722523 |
70 | 1.22 | 1.22395806572909 | -0.00395806572908608 |
71 | 1.23 | 1.2235244715577 | 0.00647552844229704 |
72 | 1.22 | 1.23388691602326 | -0.0138869160232582 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 1.22304378771374 | 1.21025897715961 | 1.23582859826787 |
74 | 1.22563316315824 | 1.2068533397334 | 1.24441298658308 |
75 | 1.22822253860274 | 1.20409630029657 | 1.25234877690892 |
76 | 1.23081191404725 | 1.20156307798782 | 1.26006075010667 |
77 | 1.23340128949175 | 1.19909675502393 | 1.26770582395957 |
78 | 1.23599066493625 | 1.19662243400589 | 1.27535889586661 |
79 | 1.23858004038075 | 1.19409941331076 | 1.28306066745075 |
80 | 1.24116941582526 | 1.19150384396681 | 1.2908349876837 |
81 | 1.24375879126976 | 1.18882111434256 | 1.29869646819696 |
82 | 1.24634816671426 | 1.18604206131818 | 1.30665427211035 |
83 | 1.24893754215876 | 1.18316091072482 | 1.31471417359271 |
84 | 1.25152691760327 | 1.180174081363 | 1.32287975384353 |