Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.619550157028392 |
beta | 0.06316942502326 |
gamma | 0.394601674344275 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.49 | 0.480018696581197 | 0.00998130341880338 |
14 | 0.49 | 0.486577223591436 | 0.00342277640856387 |
15 | 0.49 | 0.489206370086872 | 0.000793629913127758 |
16 | 0.49 | 0.490237688456249 | -0.000237688456249108 |
17 | 0.49 | 0.490620751043432 | -0.000620751043432177 |
18 | 0.49 | 0.491158859709075 | -0.00115885970907476 |
19 | 0.5 | 0.500484895872684 | -0.000484895872684077 |
20 | 0.5 | 0.500626175914631 | -0.0006261759146311 |
21 | 0.5 | 0.500655419471077 | -0.000655419471076946 |
22 | 0.5 | 0.50064089427004 | -0.000640894270040437 |
23 | 0.5 | 0.500610285719471 | -0.000610285719470638 |
24 | 0.5 | 0.510574756176529 | -0.0105747561765288 |
25 | 0.5 | 0.505450331711825 | -0.00545033171182452 |
26 | 0.5 | 0.500804376646689 | -0.000804376646688865 |
27 | 0.51 | 0.499595245931846 | 0.0104047540681539 |
28 | 0.51 | 0.505977816669534 | 0.00402218333046578 |
29 | 0.5 | 0.508660799535528 | -0.00866079953552845 |
30 | 0.51 | 0.5035404740893 | 0.00645952591069998 |
31 | 0.5 | 0.517389383143917 | -0.017389383143917 |
32 | 0.51 | 0.506076412289522 | 0.00392358771047774 |
33 | 0.51 | 0.508138271469864 | 0.00186172853013622 |
34 | 0.52 | 0.509002138081506 | 0.0109978619184941 |
35 | 0.53 | 0.515959131321622 | 0.0140408686783784 |
36 | 0.53 | 0.533850409439796 | -0.00385040943979587 |
37 | 0.53 | 0.534270143583905 | -0.00427014358390543 |
38 | 0.53 | 0.531707820607205 | -0.00170782060720487 |
39 | 0.53 | 0.532241353903261 | -0.00224135390326086 |
40 | 0.54 | 0.529955518983076 | 0.0100444810169243 |
41 | 0.55 | 0.53482594568241 | 0.0151740543175904 |
42 | 0.54 | 0.548035655325381 | -0.00803565532538053 |
43 | 0.55 | 0.550049626755859 | -4.96267558589558e-05 |
44 | 0.55 | 0.554083657396246 | -0.00408365739624605 |
45 | 0.55 | 0.551966229624403 | -0.00196622962440252 |
46 | 0.54 | 0.552771385256682 | -0.0127713852566822 |
47 | 0.55 | 0.545470052996031 | 0.00452994700396869 |
48 | 0.55 | 0.554421744532647 | -0.00442174453264688 |
49 | 0.55 | 0.554040989781774 | -0.00404098978177425 |
50 | 0.55 | 0.551630773977439 | -0.00163077397743916 |
51 | 0.56 | 0.551760422800733 | 0.00823957719926682 |
52 | 0.56 | 0.557851142291942 | 0.00214885770805795 |
53 | 0.56 | 0.558329576195718 | 0.00167042380428239 |
54 | 0.56 | 0.558889897444313 | 0.00111010255568678 |
55 | 0.55 | 0.567328142652871 | -0.0173281426528709 |
56 | 0.55 | 0.558934536115322 | -0.00893453611532147 |
57 | 0.56 | 0.552822663436445 | 0.0071773365635549 |
58 | 0.56 | 0.556721465412051 | 0.00327853458794891 |
59 | 0.56 | 0.561640270394638 | -0.00164027039463821 |
60 | 0.56 | 0.564862862899882 | -0.0048628628998818 |
61 | 0.56 | 0.563686253622008 | -0.00368625362200792 |
62 | 0.55 | 0.56129181342915 | -0.0112918134291498 |
63 | 0.55 | 0.55597382337669 | -0.00597382337669017 |
64 | 0.55 | 0.550844049373194 | -0.000844049373193934 |
65 | 0.54 | 0.547779066800293 | -0.00777906680029261 |
66 | 0.54 | 0.540413679614113 | -0.000413679614113316 |
67 | 0.54 | 0.543093010793082 | -0.00309301079308166 |
68 | 0.54 | 0.54328920540315 | -0.00328920540314959 |
69 | 0.55 | 0.541824973967697 | 0.00817502603230258 |
70 | 0.54 | 0.544526891079805 | -0.00452689107980542 |
71 | 0.54 | 0.54233623267993 | -0.00233623267992966 |
72 | 0.54 | 0.543081439181597 | -0.00308143918159687 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.541692462908572 | 0.528472008890631 | 0.554912916926513 |
74 | 0.53909162773044 | 0.523260895661403 | 0.554922359799477 |
75 | 0.540661354678677 | 0.522338617192171 | 0.558984092165184 |
76 | 0.539330075252343 | 0.518578022060637 | 0.560082128444048 |
77 | 0.535107227584674 | 0.51195722759299 | 0.558257227576357 |
78 | 0.533331877494061 | 0.507795971663494 | 0.558867783324629 |
79 | 0.535546234159481 | 0.507623786445377 | 0.563468681873586 |
80 | 0.537431268039671 | 0.507112961479933 | 0.567749574599409 |
81 | 0.539656691493185 | 0.506927075252611 | 0.572386307733758 |
82 | 0.534997683440175 | 0.499836871448424 | 0.570158495431925 |
83 | 0.535728506816421 | 0.498113351780189 | 0.573343661852652 |
84 | 0.537688654525972 | 0.497593583027665 | 0.577783726024279 |