Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.354648862328172 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
4 | 3 | 3.06453511376718 | -0.064535113767183 |
5 | 3 | 3.04164780908943 | -0.0416478090894321 |
6 | 3 | 3.0268774609774 | -0.0268774609774041 |
7 | 3 | 3.0173454000195 | -0.0173454000194981 |
8 | 3 | 3.01119387363596 | -0.011193873635956 |
9 | 3 | 3.00722397908592 | -0.00722397908591876 |
10 | 3 | 3.00466200312162 | -0.00466200312161513 |
11 | 3 | 3.00300862901836 | -0.00300862901836396 |
12 | 3 | 3.00194162215983 | -0.00194162215983384 |
13 | 3 | 3.00125302806978 | -0.00125302806977734 |
14 | 3 | 3.00080864309037 | -0.000808643090365546 |
15 | 3 | 3.00052185873834 | -0.000521858738337766 |
16 | 3 | 3.00033678213049 | -0.000336782130490487 |
17 | 3 | 3.00021734273106 | -0.000217342731059667 |
18 | 3 | 3.00014026237875 | -0.000140262378753864 |
19 | 3 | 3.0000905184857 | -9.05184857016295e-05 |
20 | 3 | 3.00005841620773 | -5.84162077279515e-05 |
21 | 3 | 3.00003769896612 | -3.76989661154958e-05 |
22 | 3 | 3.00002432907067 | -2.43290706718469e-05 |
23 | 3 | 3.00001570079344 | -1.57007934364906e-05 |
24 | 3 | 3.00001013252491 | -1.01325249066697e-05 |
25 | 3 | 3.00000653903648 | -6.53903647584997e-06 |
26 | 3.1 | 3.00000421997463 | 0.0999957800253712 |
27 | 3.1 | 3.13546760959824 | -0.0354676095982449 |
28 | 3.1 | 3.12288906220473 | -0.0228890622047278 |
29 | 3.1 | 3.11477148233406 | -0.0147714823340621 |
30 | 3.1 | 3.10953279292939 | -0.00953279292938625 |
31 | 3.1 | 3.10615199876217 | -0.00615199876216943 |
32 | 3.1 | 3.10397019940012 | -0.00397019940012155 |
33 | 3.1 | 3.10256217269965 | -0.00256217269965253 |
34 | 3.1 | 3.10165350106663 | -0.00165350106663231 |
35 | 3.1 | 3.10106708879449 | -0.00106708879449302 |
36 | 3.1 | 3.10068864696752 | -0.00068864696752291 |
37 | 3.1 | 3.10044441910395 | -0.000444419103945215 |
38 | 3.3 | 3.10028680637433 | 0.199713193625666 |
39 | 3.3 | 3.3711148632856 | -0.0711148632856022 |
40 | 3.3 | 3.34589405792674 | -0.04589405792674 |
41 | 3.3 | 3.3296177824954 | -0.0296177824953983 |
42 | 3.3 | 3.31911386962872 | -0.0191138696287223 |
43 | 3.3 | 3.31233515751021 | -0.0123351575102069 |
44 | 3.3 | 3.30796050793257 | -0.00796050793257308 |
45 | 3.3 | 3.30513732285073 | -0.00513732285073187 |
46 | 3.3 | 3.30331537714631 | -0.00331537714630725 |
47 | 3.3 | 3.30213958241318 | -0.00213958241318046 |
48 | 3.3 | 3.30138078194449 | -0.00138078194448887 |
49 | 3.3 | 3.30089108919875 | -0.000891089198752582 |
50 | 3.3 | 3.30057506542818 | -0.000575065428181976 |
51 | 3.3 | 3.30037111912831 | -0.000371119128312891 |
52 | 3.3 | 3.30023950215167 | -0.000239502151668347 |
53 | 3.3 | 3.30015456298605 | -0.000154562986053985 |
54 | 3.3 | 3.30009974739889 | -9.97473988921804e-05 |
55 | 3.3 | 3.30006437209735 | -6.43720973547701e-05 |
56 | 3.3 | 3.30004154260626 | -4.15426062621016e-05 |
57 | 3.3 | 3.30002680956821 | -2.68095682129932e-05 |
58 | 3.3 | 3.30001730158535 | -1.73015853470737e-05 |
59 | 3.3 | 3.30001116559779 | -1.11655977872438e-05 |
60 | 3.3 | 3.30000720573123 | -7.20573123480506e-06 |
61 | 3.3 | 3.30000465022685 | -4.65022685025573e-06 |
62 | 3.3 | 3.30000300102919 | -3.00102918826539e-06 |
63 | 3.3 | 3.3000019367176 | -1.93671760095881e-06 |
64 | 3.3 | 3.30000124986291 | -1.24986290694906e-06 |
65 | 3.3 | 3.30000080660045 | -8.06600449099193e-07 |
66 | 3.3 | 3.30000052054052 | -5.20540517356949e-07 |
67 | 3.3 | 3.30000033593141 | -3.35931415129664e-07 |
68 | 3.3 | 3.30000021679372 | -2.16793720753117e-07 |
69 | 3.3 | 3.30000013990807 | -1.39908074459072e-07 |
70 | 3.3 | 3.30000009028983 | -9.02898351640147e-08 |
71 | 3.3 | 3.30000005826865 | -5.82686476846561e-08 |
72 | 3.3 | 3.30000003760374 | -3.76037379012928e-08 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 3.30000002426761 | 3.23465003894407 | 3.36535000959116 |
74 | 3.30000004853523 | 3.18996585652344 | 3.41003424054703 |
75 | 3.30000007280285 | 3.14320405862242 | 3.45679608698327 |
76 | 3.30000009707046 | 3.09317335288952 | 3.5068268412514 |
77 | 3.30000012133808 | 3.03969502895279 | 3.56030521372336 |
78 | 3.30000014560569 | 2.98281945786493 | 3.61718083334646 |
79 | 3.30000016987331 | 2.92265930759673 | 3.67734103214988 |
80 | 3.30000019414092 | 2.8593408748265 | 3.74065951345534 |
81 | 3.30000021840854 | 2.79298799142192 | 3.80701244539515 |
82 | 3.30000024267615 | 2.72371672238199 | 3.87628376297031 |
83 | 3.30000026694377 | 2.65163400500696 | 3.94836652888058 |
84 | 3.30000029121138 | 2.57683777735094 | 4.02316280507182 |