| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.475080773654074 |
| beta | 0.45686476384713 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 538712 | 546150.594818376 | -7438.59481837589 |
| 14 | 547612 | 549526.817840627 | -1914.81784062681 |
| 15 | 563280 | 561809.299360863 | 1470.7006391373 |
| 16 | 581302 | 578579.221093339 | 2722.77890666062 |
| 17 | 572273 | 569508.412276425 | 2764.58772357542 |
| 18 | 518654 | 515586.0966693 | 3067.90333069966 |
| 19 | 520579 | 514875.136731267 | 5703.86326873302 |
| 20 | 530577 | 528751.230886519 | 1825.76911348116 |
| 21 | 540324 | 541715.570993947 | -1391.5709939471 |
| 22 | 547970 | 556153.502438467 | -8183.50243846688 |
| 23 | 555654 | 555140.174404799 | 513.82559520111 |
| 24 | 551174 | 534258.512681317 | 16915.4873186833 |
| 25 | 548604 | 539727.854027512 | 8876.14597248833 |
| 26 | 563668 | 560780.520470428 | 2887.4795295716 |
| 27 | 586111 | 585190.019320966 | 920.980679034023 |
| 28 | 604378 | 610305.118630191 | -5927.11863019061 |
| 29 | 600991 | 603218.514989569 | -2227.51498956897 |
| 30 | 544686 | 552071.89825581 | -7385.89825581003 |
| 31 | 537034 | 550497.365692865 | -13463.3656928655 |
| 32 | 551531 | 551790.750870123 | -259.750870122807 |
| 33 | 563250 | 560181.758776025 | 3068.24122397474 |
| 34 | 574761 | 572247.539616281 | 2513.46038371918 |
| 35 | 580112 | 582277.572222889 | -2165.5722228894 |
| 36 | 575093 | 569547.015216728 | 5545.98478327179 |
| 37 | 557560 | 563741.683202755 | -6181.6832027554 |
| 38 | 564478 | 569575.595226241 | -5097.59522624081 |
| 39 | 580523 | 582504.640565318 | -1981.64056531806 |
| 40 | 596594 | 595361.409208452 | 1232.59079154814 |
| 41 | 586570 | 587887.585026896 | -1317.58502689621 |
| 42 | 536214 | 528932.368231624 | 7281.6317683761 |
| 43 | 523597 | 528786.315085992 | -5189.31508599175 |
| 44 | 536535 | 540387.63468372 | -3852.63468371995 |
| 45 | 536322 | 547485.093338285 | -11163.0933382852 |
| 46 | 532638 | 548076.181407098 | -15438.1814070981 |
| 47 | 528222 | 538802.813817501 | -10580.8138175013 |
| 48 | 516141 | 515976.967169304 | 164.032830696378 |
| 49 | 501866 | 490145.240052541 | 11720.7599474588 |
| 50 | 506174 | 497625.54593258 | 8548.45406742027 |
| 51 | 517945 | 514207.263271873 | 3737.73672812723 |
| 52 | 533590 | 528243.859265509 | 5346.14073449094 |
| 53 | 528379 | 519053.952991502 | 9325.04700849811 |
| 54 | 477580 | 469646.984458202 | 7933.01554179768 |
| 55 | 469357 | 463383.776945866 | 5973.22305413405 |
| 56 | 490243 | 483532.281386614 | 6710.71861338592 |
| 57 | 492622 | 496645.965314201 | -4023.96531420108 |
| 58 | 507561 | 504769.350514783 | 2791.64948521659 |
| 59 | 516922 | 517047.80355179 | -125.803551789839 |
| 60 | 514258 | 517439.796255028 | -3181.79625502817 |
| 61 | 509846 | 507969.362328893 | 1876.63767110696 |
| 62 | 527070 | 518855.550878998 | 8214.44912100188 |
| 63 | 541657 | 542428.696117502 | -771.696117501822 |
| 64 | 564591 | 563863.812832528 | 727.18716747174 |
| 65 | 555362 | 562262.185218638 | -6900.18521863758 |
| 66 | 498662 | 508588.61824025 | -9926.61824024975 |
| 67 | 511038 | 493107.919033351 | 17930.0809666486 |
| 68 | 525919 | 522215.240172453 | 3703.75982754736 |
| 69 | 531673 | 530504.098219177 | 1168.90178082348 |
| 70 | 548854 | 548037.826072163 | 816.173927837284 |
| 71 | 560576 | 560783.233191873 | -207.233191873413 |
| 72 | 557274 | 562451.608529845 | -5177.60852984479 |
| 73 | 565742 | 557174.303008842 | 8567.69699115772 |
| 74 | 587625 | 578504.434306876 | 9120.56569312373 |
| 75 | 619916 | 601926.038214263 | 17989.9617857372 |
| 76 | 625809 | 641268.405096658 | -15459.4050966583 |
| 77 | 619567 | 632666.976793723 | -13099.9767937234 |
| 78 | 572942 | 577807.617367914 | -4865.6173679136 |
| 79 | 572775 | 583800.540002252 | -11025.5400022517 |
| 80 | 574205 | 589845.903545481 | -15640.9035454808 |
| 81 | 579799 | 581577.14490354 | -1778.14490354026 |
| 82 | 590072 | 590849.240980625 | -777.240980624571 |
| 83 | 593408 | 595278.20132796 | -1870.20132795954 |
| 84 | 597141 | 586164.303637146 | 10976.6963628541 |
| 85 | 595404 | 591899.84382346 | 3504.15617654042 |
| 86 | 612117 | 606138.636833446 | 5978.36316655413 |
| 87 | 628232 | 627065.190734099 | 1166.80926590145 |
| 88 | 628884 | 631547.593001707 | -2663.59300170687 |
| 89 | 620735 | 623731.626915996 | -2996.6269159962 |
| 90 | 569028 | 573655.365478397 | -4627.365478397 |
| 91 | 567456 | 572240.544330127 | -4784.54433012742 |
| 92 | 573100 | 575895.314554992 | -2795.31455499178 |
| 93 | 584428 | 580861.304601703 | 3566.69539829658 |
| 94 | 589379 | 594213.338158756 | -4834.33815875649 |
| 95 | 590865 | 596275.863170343 | -5410.86317034275 |
| 96 | 595454 | 591589.685752301 | 3864.31424769864 |
| 97 | 594167 | 587846.301036696 | 6320.69896330393 |
| 98 | 611324 | 603155.773337722 | 8168.22666227759 |
| 99 | 612613 | 621506.152036356 | -8893.15203635592 |
| 100 | 610763 | 615924.257100628 | -5161.25710062834 |
| 101 | 593530 | 602930.419546032 | -9400.41954603186 |
| 102 | 542722 | 543749.441714617 | -1027.44171461731 |
| 103 | 536662 | 539537.332368398 | -2875.33236839774 |
| 104 | 543599 | 541132.670879374 | 2466.32912062609 |
| 105 | 555332 | 549069.288928846 | 6262.71107115445 |
| 106 | 560854 | 557008.828482087 | 3845.17151791323 |
| 107 | 562325 | 562492.604735262 | -167.604735261644 |
| 108 | 554788 | 565904.566680793 | -11116.5666807932 |
| 109 | 547344 | 553820.340931331 | -6476.34093133081 |
| 110 | 565464 | 558729.3046983 | 6734.6953017005 |
| 111 | 577992 | 561840.966136198 | 16151.0338638019 |
| 112 | 579714 | 569949.979532978 | 9764.02046702232 |
| 113 | 569323 | 564895.086890541 | 4427.91310945875 |
| 114 | 506971 | 522753.678770566 | -15782.6787705665 |
| 115 | 500857 | 513433.91458929 | -12576.9145892902 |
| 116 | 509127 | 513990.720890254 | -4863.72089025378 |
| 117 | 509933 | 519613.358904362 | -9680.35890436184 |
| 118 | 517009 | 514424.825247098 | 2584.17475290247 |
| 119 | 519164 | 512644.632171089 | 6519.36782891123 |
| 120 | 512238 | 510379.006761975 | 1858.99323802546 |
| 121 | 509239 | 506604.159936185 | 2634.84006381454 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 122 | 524463.154270883 | 510126.866862014 | 538799.441679752 |
| 123 | 529543.115447693 | 512107.916011836 | 546978.31488355 |
| 124 | 523345.879695419 | 501577.168016897 | 545114.591373942 |
| 125 | 505451.468106971 | 478348.592790034 | 532554.343423907 |
| 126 | 444236.651941606 | 410988.822933857 | 477484.480949355 |
| 127 | 441162.432430765 | 401090.016912804 | 481234.847948726 |
| 128 | 451537.612840384 | 404050.017270127 | 499025.208410642 |
| 129 | 457792.744628855 | 402361.682001649 | 513223.807256061 |
| 130 | 466592.331579969 | 402735.020129306 | 530449.643030633 |
| 131 | 468040.494862787 | 395308.815893622 | 540772.173831953 |
| 132 | 461206.698944196 | 379179.933609132 | 543233.46427926 |
| 133 | 457527.822972946 | 365807.594178319 | 549248.051767573 |
