| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 563278 | 563278 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 571477 | 569468.667270768 | 4018.05151926377 | 2008.33272923173 | 0.826887945768191 |
| 3 | 583775 | 582156.989860372 | 9365.42656897918 | 1618.01013962772 | 0.816217835909019 |
| 4 | 598714 | 597540.967669925 | 13261.6410307296 | 1173.03233007486 | 0.561469521496412 |
| 5 | 581744 | 588798.369381601 | -771.195032063328 | -7054.36938160061 | -2.00962063604561 |
| 6 | 530455 | 542180.638410114 | -29959.5596655051 | -11725.638410114 | -4.23319572586153 |
| 7 | 527676 | 520239.650155239 | -24835.894428957 | 7436.34984476066 | 0.743748332077115 |
| 8 | 536352 | 526852.263217731 | -4722.90697556446 | 9499.73678226912 | 2.91845490592824 |
| 9 | 545732 | 542122.242723118 | 8061.1408632902 | 3609.75727688248 | 1.85508998118414 |
| 10 | 558685 | 557813.746671635 | 12939.0440345743 | 871.253328365112 | 0.707834782766517 |
| 11 | 561649 | 564043.74247561 | 8650.46058193633 | -2394.74247560983 | -0.622316088754533 |
| 12 | 540735 | 547498.141173115 | -7455.74953091547 | -6763.14117311517 | -2.33717295799445 |
| 13 | 538712 | 539216.103092085 | -7977.71306345215 | -504.10309208526 | -0.0786946396005402 |
| 14 | 547612 | 546456.67059513 | 1482.00475927226 | 1155.32940487039 | 1.35402712743923 |
| 15 | 563280 | 563167.223457899 | 10634.8609332478 | 112.776542101388 | 1.33357078403978 |
| 16 | 581302 | 574364.021987131 | 10980.460006641 | 6937.9780128694 | 0.0507514653050379 |
| 17 | 572273 | 568652.505639244 | 666.560305389806 | 3620.49436075608 | -1.48772361914112 |
| 18 | 518654 | 538969.343412602 | -17976.639224431 | -20315.3434126023 | -2.69517837992666 |
| 19 | 520579 | 519394.85184818 | -18959.1111442022 | 1184.14815181962 | -0.142593690147397 |
| 20 | 530577 | 520421.978155105 | -6643.84367532357 | 10155.0218448951 | 1.78729349403088 |
| 21 | 540324 | 534660.385441381 | 6232.11136391842 | 5663.61455861887 | 1.86832743083542 |
| 22 | 547970 | 545128.391678349 | 8843.54990047284 | 2841.60832165118 | 0.378970773539681 |
| 23 | 555654 | 550622.22270231 | 6780.93060302485 | 5031.77729769024 | -0.299312321769867 |
| 24 | 551174 | 556919.686024768 | 6483.81749043715 | -5745.68602476795 | -0.043224769882167 |
| 25 | 548604 | 557530.022985363 | 2866.13010049972 | -8926.02298536307 | -0.529265286979605 |
| 26 | 563668 | 567641.788293662 | 7301.10817628728 | -3973.78829366196 | 0.640833367392678 |
| 27 | 586111 | 585422.005747686 | 13623.3347744957 | 688.994252313822 | 0.9170713889793 |
| 28 | 604378 | 593677.329012207 | 10364.4726321152 | 10700.6709877934 | -0.476368203344316 |
| 29 | 600991 | 589805.030274966 | 1668.28590750148 | 11185.9697250336 | -1.26113373227333 |
| 30 | 544686 | 569387.739198046 | -11780.702753093 | -24701.7391980464 | -1.94501057271291 |
| 31 | 537034 | 544912.800585637 | -19501.654624634 | -7878.80058563699 | -1.11958821544024 |
| 32 | 551531 | 542019.596606747 | -9384.11130275251 | 9511.40339325349 | 1.4683581514 |
| 33 | 563250 | 553065.081875538 | 3074.07289835113 | 10184.9181244623 | 1.80780234710347 |
| 34 | 574761 | 567726.39262234 | 10138.4247433993 | 7034.60737766009 | 1.02510733760203 |
| 35 | 580112 | 575364.768220668 | 8616.06655928491 | 4747.23177933225 | -0.220998468985197 |
| 36 | 575093 | 580029.947793233 | 6210.98743379817 | -4936.94779323263 | -0.349871955716878 |
| 37 | 557560 | 574344.092364801 | -1042.04740296879 | -16784.0923648005 | -1.05520601899008 |
| 38 | 564478 | 573468.81851716 | -940.769640563498 | -8990.81851716044 | 0.0146607673039618 |
| 39 | 580523 | 578022.81855141 | 2372.99818846163 | 2500.18144859039 | 0.480616922854551 |
| 40 | 596594 | 580897.804131061 | 2676.36838332851 | 15696.1958689393 | 0.0442022226684316 |
| 41 | 586570 | 570221.527680194 | -5428.42331858526 | 16348.4723198064 | -1.17724445745246 |
| 42 | 536214 | 556922.949865245 | -10200.8978148914 | -20708.9498652452 | -0.691102453459245 |
| 43 | 523597 | 538797.227714874 | -14998.9141773075 | -15200.2277148739 | -0.695435625354993 |
| 44 | 536535 | 531355.952815764 | -10420.8046156931 | 5179.04718423562 | 0.664262404846589 |
| 45 | 536322 | 528428.359937929 | -5878.00401809772 | 7893.64006207069 | 0.659231331808749 |
| 46 | 532638 | 524714.872208407 | -4565.91379132181 | 7923.12779159273 | 0.190415841086051 |
| 47 | 528222 | 521338.367609307 | -3845.33363131104 | 6883.63239069305 | 0.104636156822217 |
| 48 | 516141 | 517189.561332128 | -4029.26113776554 | -1048.56133212829 | -0.0267367662036577 |
| 49 | 501866 | 517953.073041652 | -1122.6269916952 | -16087.0730416516 | 0.422132709616365 |
| 50 | 506174 | 518152.495243175 | -323.083119618133 | -11978.4952431749 | 0.115828512478189 |
| 51 | 517945 | 516563.033571913 | -1085.96725201435 | 1381.96642808694 | -0.110663079681331 |
| 52 | 533590 | 513856.947821108 | -2062.84170766481 | 19733.0521788924 | -0.142108591882763 |
| 53 | 528379 | 509335.615054246 | -3549.61685752182 | 19043.384945754 | -0.216023242425346 |
| 54 | 477580 | 497778.202527863 | -8392.35446645675 | -20198.2025278629 | -0.701970188932908 |
| 55 | 469357 | 487304.839503618 | -9649.13017894111 | -17947.8395036185 | -0.182158151078966 |
| 56 | 490243 | 485033.510319653 | -5194.57134999231 | 5209.48968034649 | 0.646176824051605 |
| 57 | 492622 | 484226.972606968 | -2544.15037904784 | 8395.02739303199 | 0.384619679501882 |
| 58 | 507561 | 495378.80736074 | 5728.66218496713 | 12182.1926392598 | 1.20080705227391 |
| 59 | 516922 | 508331.657233889 | 10092.1875154208 | 8590.34276611113 | 0.633708967530568 |
| 60 | 514258 | 517662.882054253 | 9632.28009518419 | -3404.88205425313 | -0.0668161921683895 |
| 61 | 509846 | 526823.501210645 | 9347.17625152663 | -16977.5012106449 | -0.041376952623064 |
| 62 | 527070 | 538481.297297988 | 10740.9237890609 | -11411.2972979882 | 0.201992504089483 |
| 63 | 541657 | 542532.872193048 | 6716.018408714 | -875.872193047541 | -0.583914528667237 |
| 64 | 564591 | 544777.359888277 | 4024.19763993152 | 19813.6401117229 | -0.391274842146568 |
| 65 | 555362 | 536630.705610985 | -3317.9002350582 | 18731.2943890152 | -1.06674027885443 |
| 66 | 498662 | 520868.235741767 | -10827.9058510783 | -22206.2357417665 | -1.08924515452835 |
| 67 | 511038 | 525158.647646916 | -1714.14623007729 | -14120.6476469157 | 1.32115118992253 |
| 68 | 525919 | 523095.123743221 | -1924.61875016622 | 2823.87625677942 | -0.0305262004093549 |
| 69 | 531673 | 526138.94311461 | 1068.451417214 | 5534.0568853904 | 0.434337162641024 |
| 70 | 548854 | 536331.073570115 | 6565.48093156295 | 12522.9264298851 | 0.798025282960795 |
| 71 | 560576 | 550066.272014654 | 10886.6844922802 | 10509.7279853458 | 0.627582316900896 |
| 72 | 557274 | 561454.813428973 | 11189.3391082484 | -4180.81342897311 | 0.043953586192794 |
| 73 | 565742 | 581373.827449508 | 16453.4024559018 | -15631.8274495076 | 0.763733434730457 |
| 74 | 587625 | 598035.948365044 | 16579.0492189359 | -10410.948365044 | 0.0182141623984624 |
| 75 | 619916 | 618043.234750226 | 18639.2232218004 | 1872.76524977403 | 0.298901384714314 |
| 76 | 625809 | 609704.934014481 | 2421.93666559272 | 16104.0659855191 | -2.35626994949315 |
| 77 | 619567 | 599341.586827783 | -5275.88057048507 | 20225.4131722171 | -1.11829823410488 |
| 78 | 572942 | 598022.110700666 | -2892.61706775028 | -25080.1107006664 | 0.345780936833018 |
| 79 | 572775 | 588616.731237944 | -6812.50655006665 | -15841.7312379443 | -0.56833018288759 |
| 80 | 574205 | 574511.016162885 | -11198.2838715911 | -306.01616288509 | -0.636049284385373 |
| 81 | 579799 | 573371.992630586 | -5150.8203795331 | 6427.00736941361 | 0.877554807462461 |
| 82 | 590072 | 577194.364274581 | 244.740480715699 | 12877.6357254189 | 0.783369078301323 |
| 83 | 593408 | 582281.420863417 | 3157.96413605377 | 11126.5791365832 | 0.423091809766574 |
| 84 | 597141 | 600500.857301989 | 12224.4186934279 | -3359.85730198932 | 1.31638153214866 |
| 85 | 595404 | 613456.596575703 | 12664.5453738403 | -18052.5965757025 | 0.063846595313492 |
| 86 | 612117 | 624227.381813914 | 11526.4296813519 | -12110.3818139141 | -0.16501156709937 |
| 87 | 628232 | 621525.814102511 | 2986.82463747816 | 6706.18589748926 | -1.2390261494607 |
| 88 | 628884 | 612235.619835932 | -4383.61937606737 | 16648.3801640678 | -1.07059912508759 |
| 89 | 620735 | 602785.263913024 | -7429.16998711425 | 17949.736086976 | -0.442389322274379 |
| 90 | 569028 | 591840.186088546 | -9543.6267471656 | -22812.1860885461 | -0.306834821148238 |
| 91 | 567456 | 580578.317606708 | -10576.288546891 | -13122.3176067082 | -0.149742960738444 |
| 92 | 573100 | 574625.708609834 | -7800.07116942926 | -1525.7086098339 | 0.402614448778722 |
| 93 | 584428 | 577330.659065006 | -1495.23494128233 | 7097.34093499401 | 0.914885277528916 |
| 94 | 589379 | 578424.177363054 | 58.7788050627644 | 10954.8226369459 | 0.225632387290572 |
| 95 | 590865 | 583920.214097744 | 3324.76641778059 | 6944.78590225602 | 0.474307628674391 |
| 96 | 595454 | 597280.861663797 | 9356.18646543414 | -1826.86166379679 | 0.87558847928343 |
| 97 | 594167 | 611144.393354025 | 12064.2543745239 | -16977.3933540248 | 0.392821575755822 |
| 98 | 611324 | 619879.59564151 | 10066.5118731159 | -8555.59564151033 | -0.289679447483914 |
| 99 | 612613 | 608345.523570279 | -2882.48932514197 | 4267.47642972083 | -1.8788440472084 |
| 100 | 610763 | 594454.801074817 | -9482.96070678191 | 16308.1989251832 | -0.95859058305769 |
| 101 | 593530 | 576211.816635911 | -14740.7437123344 | 17318.1833640893 | -0.763649427565454 |
| 102 | 542722 | 563445.758416018 | -13554.9442194793 | -20723.7584160181 | 0.172090230769568 |
| 103 | 536662 | 550974.721079101 | -12904.4072756125 | -14312.7210791007 | 0.0943428693780658 |
| 104 | 543599 | 545668.344096192 | -8348.46795813681 | -2069.34409619198 | 0.660724511029069 |
| 105 | 555332 | 546261.46713095 | -2989.63095485087 | 9070.53286904993 | 0.777601891883573 |
| 106 | 560854 | 550399.888429962 | 1283.14504347903 | 10454.1115700376 | 0.620377782501501 |
| 107 | 562325 | 558231.107956497 | 5210.79976900159 | 4093.89204350274 | 0.570371500182374 |
| 108 | 554788 | 560726.570767582 | 3581.30512039276 | -5938.57076758221 | -0.2365337239552 |
| 109 | 547344 | 563460.02317622 | 3072.65797101884 | -16116.02317622 | -0.0737814521636901 |
| 110 | 565464 | 566612.732650648 | 3120.63280985373 | -1148.73265064758 | 0.00695713816445566 |
| 111 | 577992 | 569554.666928012 | 3013.6295337497 | 8437.33307198839 | -0.0155259877587217 |
| 112 | 579714 | 562994.055496098 | -2720.32221541391 | 16719.9445039025 | -0.832641940291444 |
| 113 | 569323 | 553512.840235083 | -6772.83803970552 | 15810.1597649167 | -0.588536380438725 |
| 114 | 506971 | 531942.694332145 | -15646.5330431728 | -24971.6943321449 | -1.28785658666972 |
| 115 | 500857 | 516665.434319409 | -15425.1849018794 | -15808.4343194095 | 0.0321034383915536 |
| 116 | 509127 | 511292.320855556 | -9405.10037207832 | -2165.32085555618 | 0.873091628240906 |
| 117 | 509933 | 503629.612595866 | -8362.15225532217 | 6303.38740413429 | 0.151337135153299 |
| 118 | 517009 | 505491.775141359 | -2241.08946248952 | 11517.2248586408 | 0.888713675851302 |
| 119 | 519164 | 512010.480657001 | 3006.50069440048 | 7153.51934299919 | 0.762008898616363 |
| 120 | 512238 | 517842.90231601 | 4700.12253730001 | -5604.90231601043 | 0.245827314702373 |
| 121 | 509239 | 525399.002864677 | 6411.2428540411 | -16160.0028646774 | 0.248208207935802 |
