| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ma1 | sar1 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.1048 | 0.2363 | 0.0316 | 0.9896 | -0.6923 |
| (p-val) | (0.7696 ) | (0.0023 ) | (0.9327 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.1348 | 0.2313 | 0 | 0.9896 | -0.6918 |
| (p-val) | (0.0082 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 8 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 9 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 0.235099323359327 |
| 19.0061408885698 |
| -10.2117339496635 |
| -14.0641172757183 |
| -13.9413192468913 |
| 21.7757810164002 |
| 1.61100816102369 |
| -11.8967408485622 |
| -6.7906866085879 |
| -11.8504426381919 |
| 15.5656445316936 |
| 5.20170664538019 |
| 31.1008673760374 |
| 4.31268276537959 |
| -1.31525545729341 |
| 6.2796145626017 |
| 46.8853512330005 |
| 0.886303762015217 |
| 23.0140084218962 |
| -30.772467027942 |
| -19.2565576602354 |
| 43.5952687635178 |
| -41.0055065225157 |
| -5.77674849888518 |
| 34.0146352704653 |
| -29.5252205950311 |
| -35.3149475934236 |
| -35.2864237290836 |
| -18.9213683128296 |
| 5.44856358373617 |
| -33.0542692111717 |
| -31.5487950158232 |
| 25.2076429637242 |
| -28.1689442223941 |
| 28.6617044346583 |
| -3.79162093998823 |
| -59.7766443303333 |
| -32.1990400377888 |
| 21.3637047581848 |
| 4.40937577310114 |
| 0.998285083816293 |
| 2.28360619804324 |
| -10.1597789210036 |
| 17.9519457242052 |
| 25.9915469447255 |
| -1.13488306509405 |
| 3.82562060054791 |
| -32.5880838105389 |
| -11.1784184729254 |
| -0.11167243477601 |
| -6.15010925863263 |
| 21.6227802645366 |
| 11.8542824167706 |
| -15.7021103385566 |
| 3.38267468987089 |
| 22.4799641967389 |
| -13.2496280361565 |
| -10.85246934467 |
| -1.46672609417968 |
| -3.48375259596787 |
| 6.07900460923543 |
| -29.9727941982669 |
| 16.0693636820703 |
| 27.8068752120254 |
| -15.4190516023017 |
| -15.5763868328876 |
| -0.311882800566532 |
| 14.083620264225 |
| 22.4476141843508 |
| 9.03627015517071 |
| 22.5016785819445 |
| 28.0308673374151 |
| 52.5086147660366 |
| 20.8925246561663 |
| 7.93410748041428 |
| -9.38200392517716 |
| -9.03883559026934 |
| -25.1702915397441 |
| 3.11612082229391 |
| 12.0833180442958 |
| 0.755115759005697 |
| -37.1437975736332 |
| -0.393162037235029 |
| -11.6059034803377 |
| -4.58438643680724 |
| -19.9239426351945 |
| -8.1511793615307 |
| 14.9777527573412 |
| -28.3513259580376 |
| 3.06215562236475 |
| -16.5058954107879 |
| 15.1343666122827 |
| -11.2530757373636 |
| 18.9577377076712 |
| 4.25507877283381 |
| -2.39582668570844 |
| -25.5182515890551 |
| -2.61472020674531 |
| 24.3424656913201 |
| -21.5238178881587 |
| 33.1964269430189 |
| 18.4605226633738 |
| -23.572774228068 |
| -32.9451772745362 |
| -2.89433488194975 |
| 9.34169966989969 |
| 30.2046536447599 |
| -2.52244119462412 |
| -15.0963962811538 |
| -17.378351194281 |
| -9.75115149155177 |
| 10.7999238620655 |
| 18.4793210322982 |
| 21.3457001022341 |
| -25.440206076805 |
| -4.88021721829448 |
| 14.5312404074848 |
| 13.7765083068758 |
| 31.101734676979 |
| 7.36368397668656 |
| 43.1393474877986 |
| 53.8288908038686 |
| -0.970186850451381 |
| -3.88344976483277 |
| -18.9803509334002 |
| 5.89681323746607 |
| 5.38902803653052 |
| -21.1475838816732 |
| -43.9213820568317 |
| -6.0918329938741 |
| -24.7180014179511 |
| 27.4584705188898 |
| -8.05518538884751 |
| -20.607438950408 |
| -24.0903556145276 |
| -47.5676815352552 |
| 5.31382396260001 |
| 25.4772458648291 |
| -2.73467002700749 |
| 7.3310950814892 |
| 6.85480629101966 |
| 19.1976748857079 |
| 6.36618056437638 |
| -33.1732322147335 |
| -9.10620950835025 |
| -30.0375442621066 |
| 53.9862474877805 |
| -18.7193830216942 |
| -14.3716744282165 |
| 48.4174926073551 |
| -17.9866466110772 |
| 6.89646016528977 |
| -18.0182791548273 |
| 33.2740710032997 |
| 10.5464686616503 |
| 33.8086924873289 |
| 12.0686617059643 |
| 16.1422054487987 |
| -26.6177574580311 |
| -17.0994809573409 |
| 2.84676743844868 |
| 18.487690576221 |
| -17.3947475740904 |
| -25.995887314331 |
| -7.66434978006916 |
| -7.77058183636139 |
| -22.0504588587325 |
| -2.56841478910624 |
| -6.04423566361788 |
| -21.645034938796 |
| 0.96701642876916 |
| 4.6208394063604 |
| 29.319374780051 |
| -29.7349800087596 |
| -18.1590180585738 |
| 44.1953966699639 |
| -10.3484341613061 |
| -23.0446702546761 |
| 26.9662311401912 |
| -12.7324045099415 |
| 16.3414222786479 |
| 20.9848641046624 |
| -38.554383813926 |
| -1.10885543501798 |
| 13.5820294920999 |
| 14.9395269399698 |
| -16.9496804170119 |
| -16.8091926220002 |
| 8.96418369320206 |
| 6.18168771964863 |
| 11.8698155478683 |
| -22.097363174694 |
| 0.561020823222548 |
| -11.0883674191028 |
| -0.985506691258675 |
| 8.5181589303533 |
| -21.7957513804067 |
| 45.4868615863999 |
| -46.9630788294963 |
| 11.3243800884767 |
| 10.7954150159822 |
| -0.74496456309809 |
| -25.4942320797863 |
| 5.0832120092581 |
| -12.9616111085156 |
| 19.6933697276724 |
| -24.0040169770795 |
| 20.6424746805834 |
| -9.62860056883609 |
| 19.5287166715138 |
| -17.7020595515206 |
| -6.53286052233163 |
| 2.35493387678204 |
| -3.5936482701374 |
| -9.92456581910399 |
| -14.7153548774433 |
| -14.8773709876865 |
| -17.3089152612494 |
| 24.7434079250602 |
| 12.4040886494875 |
| 19.5325937549751 |
| 6.92827276184512 |
| -11.7207674538198 |
| -1.31375340953061 |
| -0.522737049818418 |
| 6.16234427722825 |
| -14.4787023034419 |
| 6.9977110306554 |
| -7.01598186819026 |
| -1.04668616569899 |
| 2.88997399623809 |
| 3.19615425211118 |
| -10.1457072938262 |
| 47.0591976947967 |
| 8.65359645252659 |
| -20.0902723828796 |
| 24.1375321385233 |
| 12.0470468158414 |
| -33.7695854876109 |
| -21.7552803557724 |
| -10.870152225768 |
| 26.040566266256 |
| -10.6695150107879 |
| -15.5705485716776 |
| -0.112227566160449 |
| 51.0696376718095 |
| 1.11000982190088 |
| -31.2528268419286 |
| 7.43250750085287 |
| -2.12857554383516 |
| -7.19257726994943 |
| -10.8382585526304 |
| 0.0603077679638646 |
| -0.153217144497985 |
| 10.2008322035065 |
| 13.4880046147887 |
| -13.1462023622229 |
| 10.230108279941 |
| 23.6684688100912 |
| -6.57031736841793 |
| 24.0604170369963 |
| -9.93931308297906 |
| -29.9514853376826 |
| 3.18831060783079 |
| 36.2253287389116 |
| 27.6423783871408 |
| 6.21290037329183 |
| 2.3198059258085 |
| -4.63472645583919 |
| 26.307434665497 |
| 16.6117638499302 |
| -8.04659492069995 |
| 13.9566373963129 |
| 1.29617105747487 |
| 26.148395778505 |
| 4.86470385130154 |
| 13.2763883888268 |
| -18.7864273730228 |
| -11.600420169185 |
| -17.5014439731044 |
| -7.93288780881169 |
| 9.33297265524812 |
| 16.517965912548 |
| 0.248206116744364 |
| -19.8722848224304 |
| -19.2659504354802 |
| 18.1961464034183 |
| -4.85444904193284 |
| 11.5664151699005 |
| -15.6508311600903 |
| -0.144582519430128 |
| -15.7882995560566 |
| -12.1364940623605 |
| 7.99015800696522 |
| 3.27527599751237 |
| -3.49568191383768 |
| -8.91320313314211 |
| -4.60201997221042 |
| -33.6193186450102 |
| -2.21794290064345 |
| 0.330963361121376 |
| 12.5493174865021 |
| -12.4116574903939 |
| 3.53073133308671 |
| -9.9936857935743 |
| -0.55213295463726 |
| -1.35758814578651 |
| -4.20716736768391 |
| 10.6875598437794 |
| -26.2353620246781 |
| 25.565601111396 |
| 11.8825959601252 |
| 26.2136096323146 |
| -3.46947180673541 |
| -22.7523196627191 |
| -7.62127618324474 |
| 17.3725946291279 |
| 19.3187633744382 |
| 8.6850134667858 |
| -13.3945512668996 |
| 39.9592056775403 |
| 1.88562464960434 |
| 41.1605060593178 |
| 40.0413914308284 |
| 117.842977039161 |
| -27.5001130438121 |
| 1.36237744438332 |
| -19.2663070958865 |
| -0.938515583711979 |
| -11.3748902031002 |
| -13.4410857404234 |
| -13.7700551745649 |
| -13.7751267241124 |
| -1.08486024317253 |
| -23.3612151111997 |
| -6.24331237954128 |
| -4.64341429756539 |
| -21.2349219021349 |
| -26.5518276780575 |
| -10.4391928713103 |
| -25.6068603266418 |
| 40.8941694269622 |
| 21.873222904832 |
| 2.02883989567272 |
| -31.5068326558948 |
| 3.48087068292462 |
| 13.2441930439633 |
| -13.8106586393821 |
| -23.302471187321 |
| 28.3667200149178 |
| -25.5935264840767 |
| -51.8978495889171 |
| 4.93111668519981 |
| 30.8903415318637 |
| -31.9023965032272 |
| 15.1098215958069 |
| -15.3948552663624 |
| -1.62515770140647 |
| -3.22897684703647 |
| -46.5476736443512 |
| 12.2928192696021 |
| -15.6738485882641 |
| 11.7679950767435 |
| -11.3613219197138 |
| 12.0587932244453 |
| -27.1512192479372 |
| 41.4175365761337 |
| -20.6067838139101 |
| -2.62533763304354 |
| -7.93889156384962 |
| -0.516239580115899 |
| 25.8726185465278 |
