| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872704.999999999 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526.000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 632669.2356 | 418110.3813 | 957331.7946 | 0.3804 | 0.0939 | 0.5109 | 0.0939 |
| 62 | 847224 | 936054.0263 | 615645.5865 | 1423216.7976 | 0.3604 | 0.8456 | 0.4717 | 0.6341 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1157716.3804 | 761433.5925 | 1760241.7737 | 0.3918 | 0.8438 | 0.4965 | 0.8409 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1436506.7715 | 944794.8826 | 2184126.674 | 0.4192 | 0.8295 | 0.5375 | 0.9377 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1629612.9846 | 1071801.4276 | 2477733.6653 | 0.3856 | 0.605 | 0.4706 | 0.964 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1517146.406 | 997831.816 | 2306734.6424 | 0.4907 | 0.5133 | 0.5216 | 0.9509 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2918901.14 | 1919770.1776 | 4438022.8241 | 0.4726 | 0.9657 | 0.5001 | 0.9962 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2763886.1932 | 1817816.3746 | 4202331.4323 | 0.4868 | 0.4448 | 0.4936 | 0.9954 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1414416.7006 | 930266.1756 | 2150539.9802 | 0.4758 | 1e-04 | 0.5079 | 0.9333 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1375669.0741 | 904781.7435 | 2091626.4225 | 0.4899 | 0.4826 | 0.506 | 0.9246 |
| 71 | 946295 | 971975.5786 | 639271.301 | 1477833.4706 | 0.4604 | 0.0632 | 0.5115 | 0.6806 |
| 72 | 859626 | 863025.825 | 567614.7159 | 1312181.5798 | 0.4941 | 0.3582 | 0.5212 | 0.5212 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.2618 | 0.0797 | 0 | 2545077829.777 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.2655 | -0.0949 | 0.0873 | 7890773565.5383 | 5217925697.6577 | 72235.2109 |
| 63 | 0.2655 | -0.073 | 0.0825 | 7133555857.1704 | 5856469084.1619 | 76527.5707 |
| 64 | 0.2655 | 0.0542 | 0.0754 | 6055832324.8043 | 5906309894.3225 | 76852.5204 |
| 65 | 0.2655 | -0.0772 | 0.0758 | 15845518773.1945 | 7894151670.0969 | 88849.0387 |
| 66 | 0.2655 | -0.0062 | 0.0642 | 89008016.6483 | 6593294394.5222 | 81199.1034 |
| 67 | 0.2655 | -0.0182 | 0.0576 | 2830574109.0422 | 6055762925.1679 | 77818.7826 |
| 68 | 0.2655 | 0.0088 | 0.0515 | 587665196.0087 | 5372250709.023 | 73295.6391 |
| 69 | 0.2655 | -0.0161 | 0.0476 | 520784375.1637 | 4833198894.1497 | 69521.2118 |
| 70 | 0.2655 | -0.0068 | 0.0435 | 86324057.653 | 4358511410.5001 | 66019.0231 |
| 71 | 0.2655 | -0.0264 | 0.042 | 659492116.4669 | 4022236929.2243 | 63421.1079 |
| 72 | 0.2655 | -0.0039 | 0.0388 | 11558810.1646 | 3688013752.636 | 60729.019 |
