| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0116432278326306 |
| gamma | 0 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 19394 | 17905.6920405983 | 1488.30795940171 |
| 14 | 20148 | 20146.6889942042 | 1.31100579578197 |
| 15 | 20108 | 20170.8292585434 | -62.8292585433846 |
| 16 | 18584 | 18637.0977231716 | -53.0977231716133 |
| 17 | 18441 | 18516.2294942833 | -75.2294942833287 |
| 18 | 18391 | 18494.811913475 | -103.81191347499 |
| 19 | 19178 | 18386.0198743813 | 791.980125618677 |
| 20 | 18079 | 19203.3660794228 | -1124.36607942282 |
| 21 | 18483 | 18742.0664956595 | -259.066495659485 |
| 22 | 19644 | 19039.8417920934 | 604.158207906617 |
| 23 | 19195 | 20347.7094770883 | -1152.70947708833 |
| 24 | 19650 | 19259.2465513551 | 390.753448644904 |
| 25 | 20830 | 21273.796182784 | -443.796182784045 |
| 26 | 23595 | 21565.3789627166 | 2029.62103728335 |
| 27 | 22937 | 23624.1353028676 | -687.135302867631 |
| 28 | 21814 | 21465.1348299845 | 348.865170015495 |
| 29 | 21928 | 21749.9467466419 | 178.053253358139 |
| 30 | 21777 | 21988.4781945704 | -211.478194570387 |
| 31 | 21383 | 21777.432572436 | -394.432572436035 |
| 32 | 21467 | 21399.9651041306 | 67.0348958694485 |
| 33 | 22052 | 22135.5372733626 | -83.5372733625627 |
| 34 | 22680 | 22616.356296523 | 63.6437034770497 |
| 35 | 24320 | 23384.930647996 | 935.069352004019 |
| 36 | 24977 | 24409.776206834 | 567.223793165984 |
| 37 | 25204 | 26628.3805226899 | -1424.38052268992 |
| 38 | 25739 | 25955.5461357439 | -216.546135743891 |
| 39 | 26434 | 25758.1498397491 | 675.850160250855 |
| 40 | 27525 | 24968.0189171457 | 2556.98108285433 |
| 41 | 30695 | 27492.5404304571 | 3202.45956954293 |
| 42 | 32436 | 30822.2857301834 | 1613.71426981662 |
| 43 | 30160 | 32524.4912397503 | -2364.49123975028 |
| 44 | 30236 | 30242.0859295376 | -6.08592953761399 |
| 45 | 31293 | 30968.8067363401 | 324.193263659898 |
| 46 | 31077 | 31926.3730590374 | -849.37305903736 |
| 47 | 32226 | 31840.3169483294 | 385.683051670574 |
| 48 | 33865 | 32367.7658773046 | 1497.23412269545 |
| 49 | 32810 | 35579.1985153139 | -2769.19851531387 |
| 50 | 32242 | 33608.7061060863 | -1366.7061060863 |
| 51 | 32700 | 32294.9182355129 | 405.081764487117 |
| 52 | 32819 | 31264.6346947877 | 1554.36530521234 |
| 53 | 33947 | 32805.4825241714 | 1141.51747582862 |
| 54 | 34148 | 34069.2318055507 | 78.7681944492942 |
| 55 | 35261 | 34213.5655882513 | 1047.43441174868 |
| 56 | 39506 | 35359.886105747 | 4146.11389425296 |
| 57 | 41591 | 40303.9519211045 | 1287.04807889547 |
| 58 | 39148 | 42300.7289817853 | -3152.72898178532 |
| 59 | 41216 | 39960.8543732892 | 1255.1456267108 |
| 60 | 40225 | 41417.4266531175 | -1192.42665311747 |
| 61 | 41126 | 41967.5429579215 | -841.542957921505 |
| 62 | 42362 | 41975.4946815315 | 386.505318468517 |
| 63 | 40740 | 42486.1198510129 | -1746.11985101293 |
| 64 | 40256 | 39350.7893797645 | 905.210620235484 |
| 65 | 39804 | 40281.0789532524 | -477.078953252436 |
| 66 | 41002 | 39945.9825476389 | 1056.01745236111 |
| 67 | 41702 | 41098.6946660986 | 603.305333901364 |
| 68 | 42254 | 41826.8440875539 | 427.155912446113 |
| 69 | 43605 | 43034.6092278292 | 570.39077217078 |
| 70 | 43271 | 44289.0420842099 | -1018.0420842099 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 71 | 44083.0221216136 | 41545.8780969368 | 46620.1661462903 |
| 72 | 44269.0025765605 | 40659.9903173806 | 47878.0148357403 |
| 73 | 46009.9830315074 | 41564.1586599674 | 50455.8074030474 |
| 74 | 46867.7134864543 | 41704.3812623313 | 52031.0457105772 |
| 75 | 46995.5689414012 | 41189.4815568643 | 52801.6563259381 |
| 76 | 45630.4243963481 | 39233.6241953942 | 52027.224597302 |
| 77 | 45669.029851295 | 38720.1485581294 | 52617.9111444606 |
| 78 | 45830.0936395753 | 38359.0768914119 | 53301.1103877386 |
| 79 | 45933.5740945222 | 37964.3697319073 | 53902.778457137 |
| 80 | 46058.1795494691 | 37610.3942018432 | 54505.9648970949 |
| 81 | 46833.5766710826 | 37923.5590583968 | 55743.5942837684 |
| 82 | 47505.7654593629 | 38147.3482215361 | 56864.1826971897 |
