Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[84])
72	9383	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
73	9706	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
74	8579	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
75	9474	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
76	8318	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
77	8213	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
78	8059	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
79	9111	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	7708	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	7680	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	8014	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	8007	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	8718	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	9486	9469.7534	8627.687	10311.8199	0.4849	0.9599	0.2912	0.9599
86	9113	8627.3512	7697.7219	9556.9805	0.1529	0.0351	0.5406	0.4242
87	9025	9417.3041	8468.9953	10365.6128	0.2087	0.7353	0.4534	0.9258
88	8476	8385.6779	7432.9116	9338.4443	0.4263	0.0942	0.5554	0.2471
89	7952	8288.7104	7334.7294	9242.6915	0.2445	0.3502	0.5618	0.1889
90	7759	8091.8009	7137.4141	9046.1878	0.2472	0.613	0.5269	0.0992
91	7835	8507.9602	7553.3955	9462.5249	0.0835	0.938	0.1078	0.3331
92	7600	7823.3854	6868.7171	8778.0537	0.3233	0.4905	0.5936	0.0331
93	7651	7750.3966	6795.6522	8705.1411	0.4192	0.6212	0.5575	0.0235
94	8319	8210.5107	7255.7009	9165.3204	0.4119	0.8746	0.6567	0.1488
95	8812	8132.2868	7177.4155	9087.1581	0.0815	0.3508	0.6015	0.1146
96	8630	9054.8191	8099.8868	10009.7513	0.1916	0.6909	0.7553	0.7553

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
85	0.0454	0.0017	0	263.9504	0	0
86	0.055	0.0563	0.029	235854.7516	118059.351	343.5977
87	0.0514	-0.0417	0.0332	153902.4692	130007.0571	360.5649
88	0.058	0.0108	0.0276	8158.0785	99544.8124	315.5072
89	0.0587	-0.0406	0.0302	113373.9256	102310.6351	319.8603
90	0.0602	-0.0411	0.032	110756.4666	103718.2737	322.0532
91	0.0572	-0.0791	0.0388	452875.4018	153597.8634	391.9156
92	0.0623	-0.0286	0.0375	49901.0363	140635.76	375.0143
93	0.0629	-0.0128	0.0347	9879.6869	126107.3074	355.1159
94	0.0593	0.0132	0.0326	11769.9383	114673.5705	338.6349
95	0.0599	0.0836	0.0372	462010.0438	146249.6136	382.426
96	0.0538	-0.0469	0.038	180471.2395	149101.4157	386.1365