| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.854978825109735 |
| beta | 0.00715218941994085 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 0.9383 | 0.969540224358974 | -0.031240224358974 |
| 14 | 0.9217 | 0.92689654140936 | -0.00519654140936021 |
| 15 | 0.9095 | 0.905971212545413 | 0.00352878745458673 |
| 16 | 0.892 | 0.884964933533471 | 0.00703506646652929 |
| 17 | 0.8742 | 0.866995301388958 | 0.00720469861104178 |
| 18 | 0.8532 | 0.848331424322249 | 0.00486857567775145 |
| 19 | 0.8607 | 0.911287482811404 | -0.0505874828114041 |
| 20 | 0.9005 | 0.835170444602858 | 0.0653295553971417 |
| 21 | 0.9111 | 0.861301174503225 | 0.0497988254967746 |
| 22 | 0.9059 | 0.88927881088282 | 0.0166211891171798 |
| 23 | 0.8883 | 0.906133575438585 | -0.0178335754385847 |
| 24 | 0.8924 | 0.934829527420517 | -0.0424295274205168 |
| 25 | 0.8833 | 0.939773178591962 | -0.0564731785919621 |
| 26 | 0.87 | 0.879221853103251 | -0.00922185310325141 |
| 27 | 0.8758 | 0.855984824282673 | 0.0198151757173275 |
| 28 | 0.8858 | 0.849375636721548 | 0.036424363278452 |
| 29 | 0.917 | 0.856701635619078 | 0.0602983643809224 |
| 30 | 0.9554 | 0.883561401770986 | 0.0718385982290144 |
| 31 | 0.9922 | 0.996611098944871 | -0.00441109894487113 |
| 32 | 0.9778 | 0.977944673701786 | -0.000144673701785947 |
| 33 | 0.9808 | 0.946604023923842 | 0.0341959760761582 |
| 34 | 0.9811 | 0.957094668154257 | 0.0240053318457425 |
| 35 | 1.0014 | 0.975975775287767 | 0.0254242247122327 |
| 36 | 1.0183 | 1.03906354407732 | -0.0207635440773228 |
| 37 | 1.0622 | 1.06160125980071 | 0.000598740199289072 |
| 38 | 1.0773 | 1.05815338658556 | 0.0191466134144391 |
| 39 | 1.0807 | 1.06501097977058 | 0.0156890202294215 |
| 40 | 1.0848 | 1.05888666901041 | 0.0259133309895918 |
| 41 | 1.1582 | 1.06222788738582 | 0.0959721126141804 |
| 42 | 1.1663 | 1.12301936890464 | 0.0432806310953635 |
| 43 | 1.1372 | 1.20217799483914 | -0.0649779948391371 |
| 44 | 1.1139 | 1.13355971994031 | -0.0196597199403052 |
| 45 | 1.1222 | 1.09160774813763 | 0.0305922518623707 |
| 46 | 1.1692 | 1.0986108965102 | 0.0705891034897985 |
| 47 | 1.1702 | 1.15888224112905 | 0.0113177588709492 |
| 48 | 1.2286 | 1.20448114483456 | 0.0241188551654445 |
| 49 | 1.2613 | 1.27003486864523 | -0.00873486864522954 |
| 50 | 1.2646 | 1.26278424067919 | 0.00181575932080991 |
| 51 | 1.2262 | 1.25570436751311 | -0.0295043675131115 |
| 52 | 1.1985 | 1.21352852366982 | -0.0150285236698247 |
| 53 | 1.2007 | 1.19288008675238 | 0.00781991324762066 |
| 54 | 1.2138 | 1.17097763244918 | 0.0428223675508188 |
| 55 | 1.2266 | 1.2343575659435 | -0.00775756594350319 |
| 56 | 1.2176 | 1.22189646313082 | -0.00429646313082488 |
| 57 | 1.2218 | 1.2011241039855 | 0.0206758960144997 |
| 58 | 1.249 | 1.20614548368641 | 0.0428545163135923 |
| 59 | 1.2991 | 1.23463526251547 | 0.0644647374845257 |
| 60 | 1.3408 | 1.32838164878841 | 0.0124183512115874 |
| 61 | 1.3119 | 1.37994716682204 | -0.0680471668220393 |
| 62 | 1.3014 | 1.32393311432879 | -0.0225331143287881 |
| 63 | 1.3201 | 1.2917617655607 | 0.0283382344392977 |
| 64 | 1.2938 | 1.3017615086375 | -0.00796150863749667 |
| 65 | 1.2694 | 1.29113402486393 | -0.0217340248639337 |
| 66 | 1.2165 | 1.24952425263226 | -0.0330242526322571 |
| 67 | 1.2037 | 1.24074254699561 | -0.0370425469956095 |
| 68 | 1.2292 | 1.20358703835343 | 0.0256129616465679 |
| 69 | 1.2256 | 1.21203271984491 | 0.0135672801550899 |
| 70 | 1.2015 | 1.21417387902496 | -0.0126738790249576 |
| 71 | 1.1786 | 1.19796356675284 | -0.0193635667528353 |
| 72 | 1.1856 | 1.21161966370554 | -0.0260196637055439 |
| 73 | 1.2103 | 1.21754620544847 | -0.00724620544847099 |
| 74 | 1.1938 | 1.21938190143422 | -0.025581901434224 |
| 75 | 1.202 | 1.19122839636379 | 0.0107716036362091 |
| 76 | 1.2271 | 1.18008446060541 | 0.0470155393945917 |
| 77 | 1.277 | 1.21393971522845 | 0.0630602847715451 |
| 78 | 1.265 | 1.24318430777826 | 0.0218156922217427 |
| 79 | 1.2684 | 1.28103654828682 | -0.012636548286824 |
| 80 | 1.2811 | 1.27431296147974 | 0.00678703852025953 |
| 81 | 1.2727 | 1.26527981274493 | 0.00742018725506499 |
| 82 | 1.2611 | 1.25868603892502 | 0.00241396107498093 |
| 83 | 1.2881 | 1.25482385077858 | 0.0332761492214175 |
| 84 | 1.3213 | 1.31326089225704 | 0.00803910774296401 |
| 85 | 1.2999 | 1.35197815676204 | -0.0520781567620368 |
| 86 | 1.3074 | 1.31349891884315 | -0.00609891884314573 |
| 87 | 1.3242 | 1.30806861654979 | 0.0161313834502139 |
| 88 | 1.3516 | 1.30758972927647 | 0.044010270723529 |
| 89 | 1.3511 | 1.3420104056086 | 0.00908959439140111 |
| 90 | 1.3419 | 1.31960786721868 | 0.0222921327813228 |
| 91 | 1.3716 | 1.35335206912222 | 0.0182479308777797 |
| 92 | 1.3622 | 1.37652066628525 | -0.0143206662852506 |
| 93 | 1.3896 | 1.3500734007566 | 0.0395265992434035 |
| 94 | 1.4227 | 1.37094095418509 | 0.0517590458149135 |
| 95 | 1.4684 | 1.41478221678761 | 0.0536177832123912 |
| 96 | 1.457 | 1.48811418507083 | -0.031114185070831 |
| 97 | 1.4718 | 1.48556168160651 | -0.0137616816065087 |
| 98 | 1.4748 | 1.48766823046701 | -0.0128682304670074 |
| 99 | 1.5527 | 1.48079082925551 | 0.0719091707444945 |
| 100 | 1.575 | 1.53350153216563 | 0.0414984678343737 |
| 101 | 1.5557 | 1.56215280725278 | -0.00645280725278408 |
| 102 | 1.5553 | 1.52972382541466 | 0.0255761745853369 |
| 103 | 1.577 | 1.56705673364873 | 0.00994326635126663 |
| 104 | 1.4975 | 1.57971851452706 | -0.082218514527058 |
| 105 | 1.4369 | 1.50393045911345 | -0.0670304591134485 |
| 106 | 1.3322 | 1.43571779340595 | -0.103517793405953 |
| 107 | 1.2732 | 1.34637053508509 | -0.0731705350850915 |
| 108 | 1.3449 | 1.29753827189368 | 0.0473617281063223 |
| 109 | 1.3239 | 1.36360239634344 | -0.0397023963434424 |
| 110 | 1.2785 | 1.34250602945084 | -0.0640060294508435 |
| 111 | 1.305 | 1.30273498186192 | 0.00226501813807656 |
| 112 | 1.319 | 1.28959891178504 | 0.0294010882149625 |
| 113 | 1.365 | 1.29898695673753 | 0.0660130432624728 |
| 114 | 1.4016 | 1.33163647327877 | 0.0699635267212284 |
| 115 | 1.4088 | 1.40340080239042 | 0.00539919760958307 |
| 116 | 1.4268 | 1.39753258154322 | 0.029267418456778 |
| 117 | 1.4562 | 1.41866745153236 | 0.0375325484676414 |
| 118 | 1.4816 | 1.43460413057986 | 0.0469958694201416 |
| 119 | 1.4914 | 1.47930587200161 | 0.0120941279983922 |
| 120 | 1.4614 | 1.52233622167716 | -0.0609362216771572 |
| 121 | 1.4272 | 1.4840029128521 | -0.0568029128521015 |
| 122 | 1.3686 | 1.44547801807606 | -0.0768780180760624 |
| 123 | 1.3569 | 1.40495027918451 | -0.0480502791845083 |
| 124 | 1.3406 | 1.3530612047494 | -0.0124612047494042 |
| 125 | 1.2565 | 1.33204160236324 | -0.0755416023632358 |
| 126 | 1.2208 | 1.24344641354839 | -0.0226464135483944 |
| 127 | 1.277 | 1.22531031831487 | 0.0516896816851276 |
| 128 | 1.2894 | 1.26140625197484 | 0.0279937480251553 |
| 129 | 1.3067 | 1.28156836451114 | 0.0251316354888567 |
| 130 | 1.3898 | 1.28711666118709 | 0.102683338812907 |
| 131 | 1.3661 | 1.37355079916431 | -0.00745079916430735 |
| 132 | 1.322 | 1.38834246715908 | -0.0663424671590782 |
| 133 | 1.336 | 1.34501605548819 | -0.00901605548818862 |
| 134 | 1.3649 | 1.34375851701718 | 0.0211414829828172 |
| 135 | 1.3999 | 1.39113731538636 | 0.00876268461364416 |
| 136 | 1.4442 | 1.39325200782037 | 0.0509479921796314 |
| 137 | 1.4349 | 1.41795439456248 | 0.0169456054375219 |
| 138 | 1.4388 | 1.41732675079802 | 0.0214732492019813 |
| 139 | 1.4264 | 1.44918414965032 | -0.0227841496503174 |
| 140 | 1.4343 | 1.41920652586777 | 0.0150934741322299 |
| 141 | 1.377 | 1.428881629184 | -0.0518816291839994 |
| 142 | 1.3706 | 1.38031843931992 | -0.009718439319921 |
| 143 | 1.3556 | 1.3544789063227 | 0.00112109367729807 |
| 144 | 1.3179 | 1.36791049049502 | -0.0500104904950223 |
| 145 | 1.2905 | 1.34681265436318 | -0.0563126543631842 |
| 146 | 1.3224 | 1.30915332745434 | 0.0132466725456588 |
| 147 | 1.3201 | 1.34760108609441 | -0.0275010860944069 |
| 148 | 1.3162 | 1.32422107733851 | -0.00802107733851343 |
| 149 | 1.2789 | 1.29260679012862 | -0.0137067901286152 |
| 150 | 1.2526 | 1.26527286083641 | -0.0126728608364084 |
| 151 | 1.2288 | 1.26015325561303 | -0.0313532556130289 |
| 152 | 1.24 | 1.22692534230116 | 0.0130746576988374 |
| 153 | 1.2856 | 1.22373230425672 | 0.061867695743284 |
| 154 | 1.2974 | 1.27780321978732 | 0.0195967802126766 |
| 155 | 1.2828 | 1.27804508813741 | 0.00475491186258648 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 156 | 1.28663611577579 | 1.21055919199527 | 1.36271303955631 |
| 157 | 1.30715582379047 | 1.20676072677812 | 1.40755092080282 |
| 158 | 1.32784813042982 | 1.20771561993731 | 1.44798064092234 |
| 159 | 1.34909790486518 | 1.21181693426661 | 1.48637887546375 |
| 160 | 1.35226085263167 | 1.19954430875016 | 1.50497739651319 |
| 161 | 1.32693401309072 | 1.16001760714345 | 1.49385041903799 |
| 162 | 1.31180700251566 | 1.13163283920848 | 1.49198116582284 |
| 163 | 1.31522882808956 | 1.12254332458808 | 1.50791433159103 |
| 164 | 1.31585745277137 | 1.11126898335017 | 1.52044592219258 |
| 165 | 1.3090891119662 | 1.09310444204222 | 1.52507378189017 |
| 166 | 1.30428318972287 | 1.0773317773831 | 1.53123460206264 |
| 167 | 1.2856469169109 | 1.04809782215384 | 1.52319601166796 |
