| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.112367224616474 |
| beta | 0.118429348067127 |
| gamma | 0.313940620745369 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 9928 | 9938.65918803419 | -10.6591880341857 |
| 14 | 8686 | 8694.00024937159 | -8.00024937159469 |
| 15 | 9843 | 9863.4919576645 | -20.4919576645007 |
| 16 | 9627 | 9650.43230905813 | -23.4323090581274 |
| 17 | 10074 | 10094.8554340655 | -20.8554340655319 |
| 18 | 9503 | 9526.5405800661 | -23.5405800661028 |
| 19 | 10119 | 9938.11073557739 | 180.889264422611 |
| 20 | 10000 | 10176.6009698522 | -176.600969852208 |
| 21 | 9313 | 9530.19588764204 | -217.195887642038 |
| 22 | 9866 | 9814.75558282031 | 51.2444171796851 |
| 23 | 9172 | 9219.20277572869 | -47.2027757286851 |
| 24 | 9241 | 9293.45957621869 | -52.4595762186927 |
| 25 | 9659 | 9804.87390962675 | -145.873909626755 |
| 26 | 8904 | 8539.06158759441 | 364.938412405594 |
| 27 | 9755 | 9745.24066825379 | 9.75933174620877 |
| 28 | 9080 | 9533.42575360876 | -453.425753608763 |
| 29 | 9435 | 9923.1924705264 | -488.192470526397 |
| 30 | 8971 | 9288.33955325027 | -317.339553250273 |
| 31 | 10063 | 9706.67737201572 | 356.32262798428 |
| 32 | 9793 | 9850.40930982878 | -57.4093098287849 |
| 33 | 9454 | 9192.81967079502 | 261.180329204979 |
| 34 | 9759 | 9599.0383958232 | 159.961604176799 |
| 35 | 8820 | 8982.815489717 | -162.815489717002 |
| 36 | 9403 | 9035.62514377689 | 367.374856223114 |
| 37 | 9676 | 9566.77969024377 | 109.220309756225 |
| 38 | 8642 | 8473.96707409728 | 168.032925902722 |
| 39 | 9402 | 9558.41495839574 | -156.414958395742 |
| 40 | 9610 | 9196.01326582854 | 413.986734171463 |
| 41 | 9294 | 9682.26241064693 | -388.26241064693 |
| 42 | 9448 | 9116.28066444386 | 331.719335556141 |
| 43 | 10319 | 9813.94597092407 | 505.054029075929 |
| 44 | 9548 | 9879.7466619202 | -331.746661920199 |
| 45 | 9801 | 9297.10759751067 | 503.892402489333 |
| 46 | 9596 | 9722.62074426886 | -126.620744268865 |
| 47 | 8923 | 9000.66286013763 | -77.6628601376342 |
| 48 | 9746 | 9228.33284456518 | 517.667155434818 |
| 49 | 9829 | 9723.98398277973 | 105.016017220272 |
| 50 | 9125 | 8666.57898869501 | 458.421011304987 |
| 51 | 9782 | 9716.60048665423 | 65.3995133457702 |
| 52 | 9441 | 9564.38114291128 | -123.381142911277 |
| 53 | 9162 | 9785.84600688343 | -623.84600688343 |
| 54 | 9915 | 9410.04652043995 | 504.95347956005 |
| 55 | 10444 | 10193.8062824471 | 250.193717552887 |
| 56 | 10209 | 10012.717718738 | 196.282281261989 |
| 57 | 9985 | 9744.23600433217 | 240.763995667827 |
| 58 | 9842 | 9982.94092681934 | -140.940926819345 |
| 59 | 9429 | 9291.28624592451 | 137.713754075492 |
| 60 | 10132 | 9730.19020122117 | 401.809798778826 |
| 61 | 9849 | 10117.4256429738 | -268.425642973845 |
| 62 | 9172 | 9131.16356960334 | 40.8364303966646 |
| 63 | 10313 | 10033.8085513526 | 279.191448647432 |
| 64 | 9819 | 9864.91833763432 | -45.9183376343226 |
| 65 | 9955 | 9968.56908468689 | -13.5690846868874 |
| 66 | 10048 | 9996.96492779397 | 51.0350722060339 |
| 67 | 10082 | 10673.75065653 | -591.750656530048 |
| 68 | 10541 | 10386.8516135945 | 154.148386405468 |
| 69 | 10208 | 10129.2898310959 | 78.7101689040956 |
| 70 | 10233 | 10244.5202053863 | -11.5202053863468 |
| 71 | 9439 | 9647.88387683781 | -208.883876837814 |
| 72 | 9963 | 10119.6479810759 | -156.647981075874 |
| 73 | 10158 | 10248.1411799755 | -90.141179975466 |
| 74 | 9225 | 9361.24575945592 | -136.24575945592 |
| 75 | 10474 | 10301.210052141 | 172.789947858986 |
| 76 | 9757 | 10019.1480484862 | -262.148048486226 |
| 77 | 10490 | 10094.0193810587 | 395.980618941267 |
| 78 | 10281 | 10178.3913000461 | 102.608699953933 |
| 79 | 10444 | 10674.4905624442 | -230.490562444236 |
| 80 | 10640 | 10633.4875901552 | 6.5124098448141 |
| 81 | 10695 | 10333.7968484674 | 361.203151532625 |
| 82 | 10786 | 10454.8679167519 | 331.132083248069 |
| 83 | 9832 | 9845.53789675746 | -13.5378967574579 |
| 84 | 9747 | 10360.2099001194 | -613.209900119407 |
| 85 | 10411 | 10456.2589711929 | -45.2589711928849 |
| 86 | 9511 | 9562.48184523508 | -51.4818452350846 |
| 87 | 10402 | 10600.1386387376 | -198.138638737586 |
| 88 | 9701 | 10152.309396896 | -451.309396895977 |
| 89 | 10540 | 10383.9192039728 | 156.08079602721 |
| 90 | 10112 | 10350.9868258377 | -238.986825837714 |
| 91 | 10915 | 10702.7381386019 | 212.261861398107 |
| 92 | 11183 | 10770.281141243 | 412.718858757047 |
| 93 | 10384 | 10613.2307711187 | -229.23077111871 |
| 94 | 10834 | 10649.8759944431 | 184.124005556869 |
| 95 | 9886 | 9916.32295341471 | -30.3229534147104 |
| 96 | 10216 | 10250.1214868774 | -34.1214868774332 |
| 97 | 10943 | 10565.3344585284 | 377.665541471559 |
| 98 | 9867 | 9718.80006990867 | 148.199930091334 |
| 99 | 10203 | 10742.137839015 | -539.137839014966 |
| 100 | 10837 | 10185.0152731823 | 651.98472681768 |
| 101 | 10573 | 10724.1125038252 | -151.112503825179 |
| 102 | 10647 | 10556.7381046143 | 90.2618953856781 |
| 103 | 11502 | 11085.7819974408 | 416.218002559166 |
| 104 | 10656 | 11249.3663511624 | -593.366351162371 |
| 105 | 10866 | 10804.251399958 | 61.748600042034 |
| 106 | 10835 | 10996.5271505466 | -161.527150546621 |
| 107 | 9945 | 10167.5227187688 | -222.522718768816 |
| 108 | 10331 | 10479.255184748 | -148.255184747992 |
| 109 | 10718 | 10895.4640418191 | -177.464041819077 |
| 110 | 9462 | 9914.29060948983 | -452.290609489826 |
| 111 | 10579 | 10662.3086960732 | -83.3086960731816 |
| 112 | 10633 | 10478.0873818951 | 154.912618104925 |
| 113 | 10346 | 10720.6789353216 | -374.678935321643 |
| 114 | 10757 | 10575.6134312936 | 181.386568706381 |
| 115 | 11207 | 11187.1097097402 | 19.890290259762 |
| 116 | 11013 | 11000.9315894757 | 12.0684105242763 |
| 117 | 11015 | 10790.5680443172 | 224.431955682812 |
| 118 | 10765 | 10925.2335226589 | -160.233522658886 |
| 119 | 10042 | 10065.7227601211 | -23.7227601211089 |
| 120 | 10661 | 10409.4806343868 | 251.519365613229 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 10856.7827440642 | 10315.3470158894 | 11398.218472239 |
| 122 | 9815.63895602323 | 9269.94421870582 | 10361.3336933406 |
| 123 | 10719.9933143307 | 10169.1346095076 | 11270.8520191538 |
| 124 | 10615.3171656339 | 10058.3214955223 | 11172.3128357456 |
| 125 | 10694.66231197 | 10130.4964076335 | 11258.8282163064 |
| 126 | 10753.3787241591 | 10180.9574494795 | 11325.7999988387 |
| 127 | 11303.8009402445 | 10721.9961185544 | 11885.6057619346 |
| 128 | 11117.2544749016 | 10524.9039014465 | 11709.6050483566 |
| 129 | 10968.5986541069 | 10364.5150510797 | 11572.6822571342 |
| 130 | 10971.7520225175 | 10354.7317043658 | 11588.7723406692 |
| 131 | 10171.3183101304 | 9540.14935310064 | 10802.4872671601 |
| 132 | 10597.7890259338 | 9951.25877365412 | 11244.3192782136 |
