Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[60])
48	8647	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	7792	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	6957	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
51	7726	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
52	8106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
53	8890	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
54	9299	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
55	10625	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
56	9302	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
57	8314	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
58	8850	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
59	8265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
60	8796	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
61	7836	8099.284	7426.6637	8771.9043	0.2215	0.0212	0.8147	0.0212
62	6892	7483.3376	6717.1849	8249.4903	0.0652	0.1835	0.9109	4e-04
63	7791	8080.5754	7231.1274	8930.0234	0.252	0.997	0.7934	0.0494
64	8129	8373.181	7447.9059	9298.456	0.3025	0.8913	0.7143	0.1852
65	9115	9128.8062	8133.4641	10124.1482	0.4892	0.9755	0.6809	0.7439
66	9434	9500.7297	8439.9387	10561.5208	0.4509	0.762	0.6453	0.9036
67	10484	10753.7119	9631.2816	11876.1421	0.3188	0.9894	0.5889	0.9997
68	9827	9591.1242	8410.2679	10771.9805	0.3477	0.0692	0.6843	0.9065
69	9110	8544.8612	7308.3364	9781.386	0.1852	0.0211	0.6428	0.3453
70	9070	9048.7031	7758.9103	10338.4959	0.4871	0.4629	0.6187	0.6495
71	8633	8452.7315	7111.785	9793.678	0.3961	0.1835	0.6081	0.3079
72	9240	9075.2876	7685.0684	10465.5067	0.4082	0.7335	0.6531	0.6531

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
61	0.0424	-0.0325	0	69318.4845	0	0
62	0.0522	-0.079	0.0558	349680.1362	209499.3104	457.7109
63	0.0536	-0.0358	0.0491	83853.9066	167617.5091	409.4112
64	0.0564	-0.0292	0.0441	59624.3465	140619.2185	374.9923
65	0.0556	-0.0015	0.0356	190.61	112533.4968	335.4601
66	0.057	-0.007	0.0308	4452.8581	94520.057	307.4411
67	0.0533	-0.0251	0.03	72744.5041	91409.2637	302.3396
68	0.0628	0.0246	0.0293	55637.4127	86937.7823	294.8521
69	0.0738	0.0661	0.0334	319381.8495	112764.9009	335.8049
70	0.0727	0.0024	0.0303	453.5583	101533.7666	318.6436
71	0.0809	0.0213	0.0295	32496.7326	95257.6726	308.6384
72	0.0782	0.0181	0.0286	27130.1889	89580.3823	299.2998