| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 853675.3422 | -359611.5904 | 2066962.2748 | 0.3915 | 0.5018 | 0.6422 | 0.5018 |
| 62 | 847224 | 853675.3422 | -842589.9814 | 2549940.6658 | 0.497 | 0.5781 | 0.454 | 0.5013 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 853675.3422 | -1215761.0341 | 2923111.7185 | 0.4176 | 0.5024 | 0.3857 | 0.5011 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 853675.3422 | -1531239.2858 | 3238589.9702 | 0.2936 | 0.4284 | 0.3265 | 0.5009 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 853675.3422 | -1809606.2144 | 3516956.8989 | 0.3162 | 0.3134 | 0.2761 | 0.5008 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 853675.3422 | -2061512.3906 | 3768863.075 | 0.3301 | 0.331 | 0.3331 | 0.5008 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 853675.3422 | -2293318.5225 | 4000669.2069 | 0.1051 | 0.3419 | 0.0992 | 0.5007 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 853675.3422 | -2509183.7467 | 4216534.4311 | 0.1298 | 0.1205 | 0.1313 | 0.5007 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 853675.3422 | -2712004.4133 | 4419355.0978 | 0.3837 | 0.1438 | 0.3805 | 0.5006 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 853675.3422 | -2903893.4178 | 4611244.1023 | 0.3946 | 0.3895 | 0.3938 | 0.5006 |
| 71 | 946295 | 853675.3422 | -3086448.2414 | 4793798.9258 | 0.4816 | 0.3993 | 0.478 | 0.5006 |
| 72 | 859626 | 853675.3422 | -3260911.4804 | 4968262.1649 | 0.4989 | 0.4824 | 0.5005 | 0.5005 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.7251 | -0.1998 | 0 | 29089806982.1369 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 1.0138 | -0.0076 | 0.1037 | 41619816.3256 | 14565713399.2312 | 120688.4974 |
| 63 | 1.2368 | 0.2572 | 0.1549 | 48215665274.9769 | 25782364024.4798 | 160568.8763 |
| 64 | 1.4254 | 0.7739 | 0.3096 | 436459291636.818 | 128451595927.564 | 358401.4452 |
| 65 | 1.5917 | 0.7615 | 0.4 | 422576258566.22 | 187276528455.296 | 432754.5822 |
| 66 | 1.7423 | 0.7661 | 0.461 | 427763949731.588 | 227357765334.678 | 476820.475 |
| 67 | 1.8808 | 2.3569 | 0.7319 | 4048235175455.64 | 773197395351.958 | 879316.4364 |
| 68 | 2.0098 | 2.266 | 0.9236 | 3742107085226.28 | 1144311106586.25 | 1069724.7808 |
| 69 | 2.131 | 0.6301 | 0.891 | 289358634075.971 | 1049316387418.44 | 1024361.4535 |
| 70 | 2.2457 | 0.6006 | 0.862 | 262864015303.734 | 970671150206.969 | 985226.4462 |
| 71 | 2.3548 | 0.1085 | 0.7935 | 8578401008.9206 | 883208173007.147 | 939791.5583 |
| 72 | 2.4591 | 0.007 | 0.7279 | 35410328.1198 | 809610442783.894 | 899783.5533 |
