| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 659591.321 | 484239.9489 | 834942.693 | 0.3963 | 0.0163 | 0.6374 | 0.0163 |
| 62 | 847224 | 904389.3695 | 724415.4757 | 1084363.2634 | 0.2668 | 0.992 | 0.2956 | 0.7201 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1133014.7719 | 950740.4328 | 1315289.1109 | 0.2602 | 0.9989 | 0.3843 | 0.9988 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1516449.1987 | 1334131.1622 | 1698767.2353 | 0.4909 | 1 | 0.8935 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1613744.3252 | 1431351.0541 | 1796137.5964 | 0.1186 | 0.8573 | 0.3039 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1519696.7126 | 1337303.4438 | 1702089.9814 | 0.4488 | 0.5681 | 0.6032 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2973630.5542 | 2791234.3458 | 3156026.7625 | 0.1231 | 1 | 0.7222 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2672122.4145 | 2489726.147 | 2854518.682 | 0.1063 | 0.0188 | 0.1329 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1381618.7364 | 1199224.1413 | 1564013.3315 | 0.4573 | 0 | 0.3924 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1355061.015 | 1172667.4451 | 1537454.585 | 0.4516 | 0.3473 | 0.4354 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 956091.423 | 773752.8572 | 1138429.9889 | 0.4581 | 0 | 0.4639 | 0.871 |
| 72 | 859626 | 858283.2063 | 676052.9929 | 1040513.4198 | 0.4942 | 0.1719 | 0.5319 | 0.5319 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1356 | 0.0357 | 0 | 553504626.8799 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.1015 | -0.0632 | 0.0494 | 3267879475.085 | 1910692050.9824 | 43711.4636 |
| 63 | 0.0821 | -0.0527 | 0.0505 | 3571110817.4093 | 2464164973.1247 | 49640.3563 |
| 64 | 0.0613 | -0.0014 | 0.0383 | 4507972.862 | 1849250723.059 | 43002.9153 |
| 65 | 0.0577 | -0.0682 | 0.0442 | 12102271651.6481 | 3899854908.7769 | 62448.8183 |
| 66 | 0.0612 | -0.0079 | 0.0382 | 143633336.6853 | 3273817980.0949 | 57217.2874 |
| 67 | 0.0313 | -0.0363 | 0.0379 | 11649436252.2803 | 4470334876.1214 | 66860.5629 |
| 68 | 0.0348 | 0.0434 | 0.0386 | 13457295871.883 | 5593705000.5916 | 74791.0757 |
| 69 | 0.0674 | 0.0072 | 0.0351 | 99545789.0888 | 4983242865.9802 | 70592.0878 |
| 70 | 0.0687 | 0.0084 | 0.0324 | 128074148.4278 | 4497725994.2249 | 67065.0877 |
| 71 | 0.0973 | -0.0102 | 0.0304 | 95969904.3602 | 4097566349.6918 | 64012.2359 |
| 72 | 0.1083 | 0.0016 | 0.028 | 1803094.8396 | 3756252745.1208 | 61288.2758 |
