| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 662780.7141 | 559792.8269 | 774459.6025 | 0.3606 | 5e-04 | 0.7283 | 5e-04 |
| 62 | 847224 | 895916.4843 | 774490.1252 | 1026181.3443 | 0.2319 | 0.9993 | 0.1923 | 0.7511 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1127731.9057 | 989115.8512 | 1275434.6092 | 0.2349 | 0.9999 | 0.3324 | 0.9999 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1537195.8909 | 1374590.5843 | 1708888.791 | 0.397 | 1 | 0.9405 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1593244.2695 | 1427519.1594 | 1768068.2415 | 0.1578 | 0.8119 | 0.222 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1525205.7771 | 1363148.7808 | 1696362.4773 | 0.4206 | 0.5971 | 0.6338 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2976622.8743 | 2748413.1386 | 3213933.0572 | 0.1798 | 1 | 0.6836 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2656399.8344 | 2441064.8861 | 2880835.3548 | 0.125 | 0.0338 | 0.1488 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1382902.4283 | 1228801.7849 | 1546103.5329 | 0.4584 | 0 | 0.386 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1356295.0644 | 1203728.0502 | 1517962.5426 | 0.4514 | 0.3343 | 0.4331 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 956242.126 | 828892.1784 | 1092688.6979 | 0.4432 | 0 | 0.4526 | 0.935 |
| 72 | 859626 | 860500.1436 | 739941.8493 | 990152.7877 | 0.4947 | 0.0973 | 0.558 | 0.558 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.086 | 0.0307 | 0 | 413605199.4712 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0742 | -0.0543 | 0.0425 | 2370958027.1201 | 1392281613.2956 | 37313.29 |
| 63 | 0.0668 | -0.0483 | 0.0444 | 2967624306.3304 | 1917395844.3072 | 43788.0788 |
| 64 | 0.057 | -0.0149 | 0.0371 | 523031908.8698 | 1568804860.4479 | 39608.1413 |
| 65 | 0.056 | -0.0562 | 0.0409 | 8012088337.6222 | 2857461555.8827 | 53455.2295 |
| 66 | 0.0573 | -0.0115 | 0.036 | 306032236.7168 | 2432223336.0217 | 49317.5763 |
| 67 | 0.0407 | -0.0373 | 0.0362 | 12304327738.0917 | 3842523964.8889 | 61988.0953 |
| 68 | 0.0431 | 0.0496 | 0.0378 | 17352309609.3141 | 5531247170.442 | 74372.3549 |
| 69 | 0.0602 | 0.0063 | 0.0343 | 75578188.7571 | 4925061728.0326 | 70178.784 |
| 70 | 0.0608 | 0.0074 | 0.0316 | 101665591.2713 | 4442722114.3565 | 66653.7479 |
| 71 | 0.0728 | -0.0104 | 0.0297 | 98945315.2574 | 4047833314.4384 | 63622.5849 |
| 72 | 0.0769 | -0.001 | 0.0273 | 764127.102 | 3710577548.827 | 60914.5102 |
