| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 655836.2987 | 461383.3329 | 850289.2646 | 0.3917 | 0.0247 | 0.6099 | 0.0247 |
| 62 | 847224 | 906277.0856 | 711824.1197 | 1100730.0514 | 0.2758 | 0.9878 | 0.3163 | 0.7118 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1150426.5359 | 955973.5701 | 1344879.5018 | 0.2183 | 0.9989 | 0.46 | 0.9987 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1529856.5552 | 1335403.5893 | 1724309.521 | 0.4378 | 1 | 0.9037 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1564482.5687 | 1370029.6029 | 1758935.5346 | 0.2702 | 0.6934 | 0.164 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1558377.7552 | 1363924.7894 | 1752830.7211 | 0.3048 | 0.7091 | 0.7374 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2919382.4557 | 2724929.4898 | 3113835.4215 | 0.2942 | 1 | 0.5024 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2737172.4633 | 2542719.4975 | 2931625.4292 | 0.3038 | 0.0976 | 0.349 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1431382.0116 | 1236929.0457 | 1625834.9774 | 0.3442 | 0 | 0.597 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1386231.0984 | 1191778.1325 | 1580684.0642 | 0.4207 | 0.4784 | 0.5642 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 985693.6797 | 791240.7138 | 1180146.6455 | 0.3456 | 1e-04 | 0.5845 | 0.913 |
| 72 | 859626 | 891970.6287 | 697517.6628 | 1086423.5945 | 0.3722 | 0.292 | 0.6607 | 0.6607 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1513 | 0.0416 | 0 | 744291223.2819 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.1095 | -0.0652 | 0.0534 | 3487266915.0805 | 2115779069.1812 | 45997.5985 |
| 63 | 0.0862 | -0.0671 | 0.0579 | 5955291615.5624 | 3395616584.6416 | 58271.9193 |
| 64 | 0.0648 | -0.0102 | 0.046 | 241198144.0686 | 2607011974.4984 | 51058.9069 |
| 65 | 0.0634 | -0.0388 | 0.0446 | 3690388602.1257 | 2823687300.0238 | 53138.3788 |
| 66 | 0.0637 | -0.0325 | 0.0426 | 2567018754.9435 | 2780909209.1771 | 52734.3267 |
| 67 | 0.034 | -0.0184 | 0.0391 | 2882020781.9723 | 2795353719.5764 | 52871.1048 |
| 68 | 0.0362 | 0.0186 | 0.0365 | 2596466716.0997 | 2770492844.1418 | 52635.4713 |
| 69 | 0.0693 | -0.0278 | 0.0356 | 1582926717.5716 | 2638541052.3007 | 51366.731 |
| 70 | 0.0716 | -0.0143 | 0.0334 | 394145515.1151 | 2414101498.5821 | 49133.5069 |
| 71 | 0.1007 | -0.04 | 0.034 | 1552255961.672 | 2335751904.3176 | 48329.6173 |
| 72 | 0.1112 | -0.0363 | 0.0342 | 1046175004.6316 | 2228287162.6771 | 47204.7367 |
