Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 655362 | 655362 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 873127 | 804406.270808494 | 154723.669781773 | 68720.729191506 | 0.792697781426955 |
3 | 1107897 | 1106300.63778955 | 252402.523620904 | 1596.36221044596 | 0.434957337765308 |
4 | 1555964 | 1514241.73456391 | 361658.41567812 | 41722.2654360877 | 0.490125219025299 |
5 | 1671159 | 1734860.34846805 | 263973.661430785 | -63701.3484680493 | -0.413797651271663 |
6 | 1493308 | 1606381.34092004 | -4624.90866164697 | -113073.340920037 | -1.14966330898594 |
7 | 2957796 | 2589589.23103867 | 673905.400647857 | 368206.768961326 | 2.90713342940484 |
8 | 2638691 | 2870691.93283009 | 403718.869641323 | -232000.932830094 | -1.15615648951339 |
9 | 1305669 | 1764653.85292548 | -634755.49590711 | -458984.852925483 | -4.44410988525324 |
10 | 1280496 | 1125357.48641561 | -637878.215996821 | 155138.513584387 | -0.0133636851532883 |
11 | 921900 | 813555.879851871 | -413672.625359818 | 108344.120148129 | 0.959470784746266 |
12 | 867888 | 776975.148345814 | -154394.443174738 | 90912.8516541865 | 1.10956307080438 |
13 | 652586 | 674263.043038158 | -118967.081855182 | -21677.0430381581 | 0.15213384048647 |
14 | 913831 | 817118.296687939 | 61258.5819615911 | 96712.7033120608 | 0.783697784671904 |
15 | 1108544 | 1100837.19712039 | 209625.372504597 | 7706.80287961209 | 0.630196214288936 |
16 | 1555827 | 1402058.78520417 | 270175.012411704 | 153768.214795825 | 0.263216866498606 |
17 | 1699283 | 1685824.30766363 | 279252.433147987 | 13458.6923363687 | 0.0389643055827133 |
18 | 1509458 | 2025952.93803814 | 319595.25862276 | -516494.938038142 | 0.172020783862317 |
19 | 3268975 | 2693984.9264719 | 549922.935103874 | 574990.073528096 | 0.986118300085746 |
20 | 2425016 | 2455590.5361417 | 27803.9183325409 | -30574.5361416965 | -2.23553728271848 |
21 | 1312703 | 1887240.74218544 | -367364.789472075 | -574537.742185438 | -1.69095075773119 |
22 | 1365498 | 1322291.48776232 | -498337.761603525 | 43206.512237677 | -0.560523218749487 |
23 | 934453 | 883149.57381828 | -459116.92084042 | 51303.42618172 | 0.167847623326227 |
24 | 775019 | 614397.046614897 | -333135.170280823 | 160621.953385103 | 0.539354990098468 |
25 | 651142 | 633505.356674373 | -99975.5012841044 | 17636.6433256268 | 1.00094352134782 |
26 | 843192 | 752375.117998202 | 45074.4121289574 | 90816.8820017979 | 0.621717163705449 |
27 | 1146766 | 1071980.14153414 | 225370.486771969 | 74785.858465861 | 0.769405262176553 |
28 | 1652601 | 1471062.66649272 | 338941.272522163 | 181538.333507281 | 0.488287356813842 |
29 | 1465906 | 1626318.19939301 | 218206.615206302 | -160412.199393005 | -0.518534295016631 |
30 | 1652734 | 2205887.05138043 | 455393.024138037 | -553153.051380428 | 1.0132020947577 |
31 | 2922334 | 2258299.17733559 | 191716.792063545 | 664034.822664409 | -1.1274713048644 |
32 | 2702805 | 2485325.18803131 | 214831.173984409 | 217479.811968688 | 0.0989511868682982 |
33 | 1458956 | 2139065.60151173 | -152861.885175702 | -680109.601511728 | -1.57359274743843 |
34 | 1410363 | 1487508.5864575 | -479723.845012365 | -77145.5864574963 | -1.39878280244602 |
35 | 1019279 | 985788.825897975 | -494133.654956996 | 33490.1741020245 | -0.0616691420552667 |
36 | 936574 | 774886.570749488 | -308681.244419669 | 161687.429250512 | 0.794213859223977 |
37 | 708917 | 691302.904871889 | -161180.411154635 | 17614.0951281108 | 0.632314912385764 |
38 | 885295 | 800990.64803439 | 16266.1649735636 | 84304.3519656099 | 0.759309259134497 |
39 | 1099663 | 1017114.00518108 | 146601.3390859 | 82548.9948189157 | 0.557010142471582 |
40 | 1576220 | 1322724.97615589 | 250074.738474914 | 253495.023844109 | 0.443697340219723 |
41 | 1487870 | 1748618.92955223 | 364798.30245567 | -260748.929552227 | 0.492143384427458 |
42 | 1488635 | 2010215.70544274 | 297435.387940507 | -521580.705442741 | -0.288124877517037 |
43 | 2882530 | 2267215.03926471 | 271094.349139319 | 615314.960735292 | -0.112616050368239 |
44 | 2677026 | 2324713.86846994 | 132015.680676348 | 352312.131530064 | -0.595133413021073 |
45 | 1404398 | 2019831.92800634 | -152644.416879769 | -615433.928006339 | -1.21828652841736 |
46 | 1344370 | 1491863.08350446 | -397249.206772976 | -147493.083504465 | -1.04681170727029 |
47 | 936865 | 991231.037098372 | -464609.891967184 | -54366.0370983722 | -0.288320096454099 |
48 | 872705 | 704400.339663046 | -348773.930277393 | 168304.660336954 | 0.496064585402981 |
49 | 628151 | 609708.893542012 | -183123.028479614 | 18442.1064579879 | 0.709492584035874 |
50 | 953712 | 811251.902043371 | 67500.5593269039 | 142460.097956628 | 1.07209030836604 |
51 | 1160384 | 1091172.37079537 | 205525.394087672 | 69211.6292046319 | 0.5902136584617 |
52 | 1400618 | 1248644.17488525 | 174338.290696041 | 151973.825114752 | -0.133612392469709 |
53 | 1661511 | 1797784.55866331 | 417973.358481966 | -136273.558663314 | 1.04435180810324 |
54 | 1495347 | 2109124.00099439 | 348610.228705699 | -613777.000994386 | -0.296843977869487 |
55 | 2918786 | 2296705.37528847 | 243985.537434921 | 622080.624711526 | -0.447395909931677 |
56 | 2775677 | 2327785.78881514 | 105763.616427456 | 447891.211184865 | -0.591320956742762 |
57 | 1407026 | 1999944.5843592 | -175778.823378698 | -592918.584359196 | -1.20487951670167 |
58 | 1370199 | 1527005.29417037 | -368766.836186885 | -156806.294170367 | -0.82599798831194 |
59 | 964526 | 1068224.38312333 | -427227.53927071 | -103698.383123328 | -0.250262249273532 |
60 | 850851 | 726189.274209709 | -371883.920263003 | 124661.725790291 | 0.236982799813938 |
61 | 683118 | 681906.495437457 | -158988.663524167 | 1211.50456254306 | 0.91142082502849 |
62 | 847224 | 711405.302362507 | -36586.6819214064 | 135818.697637493 | 0.523566375130336 |
63 | 1073256 | 929423.34310166 | 128451.26580181 | 143832.65689834 | 0.705916124983534 |
64 | 1514326 | 1412776.70478339 | 358337.189777416 | 101549.295216612 | 0.984508140051157 |
65 | 1503734 | 1684675.44723148 | 302288.604470334 | -180941.447231481 | -0.24014973579156 |
66 | 1507712 | 2069108.47663503 | 355589.320005798 | -561396.476635025 | 0.228154245901793 |
67 | 2865698 | 2249922.902911 | 242260.613348987 | 615775.097089004 | -0.484722179546206 |
68 | 2788128 | 2252724.52920972 | 87120.4015606262 | 535403.470790283 | -0.663634965826439 |
69 | 1391596 | 1969764.57136228 | -152592.210357643 | -578168.571362279 | -1.02579737776963 |
70 | 1366378 | 1535961.71045447 | -334761.549837292 | -169583.71045447 | -0.779759949991332 |
71 | 946295 | 1084296.50476855 | -410508.113400359 | -138001.504768546 | -0.324294377883474 |
72 | 859626 | 782388.239899389 | -340116.397575956 | 77237.7601006107 | 0.30139083515193 |