| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 547612 | 547612 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 563280 | 557513.988663401 | 429.019378574713 | 5766.01133659904 | 1.23416891026361 |
| 3 | 581302 | 572722.991244479 | 1497.65939548614 | 8579.00875552121 | 1.80689080178561 |
| 4 | 572273 | 574844.85969808 | 1542.72135720109 | -2571.85969808021 | 0.0927697442247405 |
| 5 | 518654 | 547297.487134998 | -534.661108413014 | -28643.4871349975 | -4.49756230633047 |
| 6 | 520579 | 527087.456930336 | -2033.39422048993 | -6508.45693033598 | -3.00861046334812 |
| 7 | 530577 | 523431.817987213 | -2169.60650575087 | 7145.18201278751 | -0.244592837547327 |
| 8 | 540324 | 530435.477377967 | -1326.55878242332 | 9888.52262203273 | 1.36772408428301 |
| 9 | 547970 | 540451.37932864 | -208.160468958618 | 7518.62067136029 | 1.67636959623539 |
| 10 | 555654 | 550240.91715437 | 829.812631795084 | 5413.08284562982 | 1.46744391562236 |
| 11 | 551174 | 552864.550935465 | 1023.15694030241 | -1690.55093546493 | 0.261856997220658 |
| 12 | 548604 | 551204.239054873 | 725.855802501028 | -2600.23905487278 | -0.390020461058593 |
| 13 | 563668 | 561784.771603793 | 1716.57640317301 | 1883.22839620742 | 1.49576595513694 |
| 14 | 586111 | 577640.103766558 | 3289.16785514862 | 8470.89623344241 | 2.08513715028737 |
| 15 | 604378 | 589407.158720188 | 4283.40996773931 | 14970.8412798122 | 1.15148072784285 |
| 16 | 600991 | 591464.844730803 | 4020.53707168893 | 9526.15526919701 | -0.306523996176934 |
| 17 | 544686 | 579106.247503992 | 2090.85579887851 | -34420.2475039921 | -2.32284093177822 |
| 18 | 537034 | 559972.919175518 | -404.475321513326 | -22938.9191755179 | -3.02667588204196 |
| 19 | 551531 | 551442.001806883 | -1359.58190323155 | 88.9981931174682 | -1.15402454843535 |
| 20 | 563250 | 553657.193999525 | -938.907135265878 | 9592.80600047461 | 0.506077410025689 |
| 21 | 574761 | 562830.004646891 | 253.409970411958 | 11930.9953531087 | 1.42995598877767 |
| 22 | 580112 | 570699.025544389 | 1152.6662334056 | 9412.97445561148 | 1.07607964676084 |
| 23 | 575093 | 575907.73422409 | 1631.33228579065 | -814.734224090333 | 0.572257152915438 |
| 24 | 557560 | 573521.928253504 | 1158.59654676904 | -15961.9282535035 | -0.567742913912298 |
| 25 | 564478 | 572618.588680839 | 916.29516177396 | -8140.58868083916 | -0.29532644566496 |
| 26 | 580523 | 574372.423599588 | 1015.35384808761 | 6150.57640041167 | 0.119594226046654 |
| 27 | 596594 | 576178.500485224 | 1109.15106649482 | 20415.4995147757 | 0.110358491804427 |
| 28 | 586570 | 570753.224440025 | 335.426442116622 | 15816.7755599746 | -0.907738316395832 |
| 29 | 536214 | 563480.997339803 | -564.452472180795 | -27266.9973398033 | -1.06847717040385 |
| 30 | 523597 | 551837.119434397 | -1875.9013167177 | -28240.1194343971 | -1.56674749984893 |
| 31 | 536535 | 543404.046608128 | -2652.58986699736 | -6869.04660812767 | -0.92648359889562 |
| 32 | 536322 | 536077.589969127 | -3206.18125543391 | 244.410030872655 | -0.658223123314982 |
| 33 | 532638 | 528294.852846514 | -3747.95483692588 | 4343.14715348556 | -0.642812056404995 |
| 34 | 528222 | 521621.254122832 | -4093.98795552449 | 6600.74587716839 | -0.410275288899773 |
| 35 | 516141 | 515687.840671895 | -4311.29625452121 | 453.159328104525 | -0.258009489926284 |
| 36 | 501866 | 514042.215983349 | -3996.62462891533 | -12176.2159833491 | 0.375365010874697 |
| 37 | 506174 | 512895.486201886 | -3659.98203096538 | -6721.48620188582 | 0.403528552464897 |
| 38 | 517945 | 510530.090574347 | -3506.82320637422 | 7414.90942565259 | 0.182946056929313 |
| 39 | 533590 | 507839.717639676 | -3410.23848654714 | 25750.2823603241 | 0.114336185223177 |
| 40 | 528379 | 505681.327062559 | -3262.38676929275 | 22697.6729374407 | 0.174623330682392 |
| 41 | 477580 | 500392.662964027 | -3501.47019418265 | -22812.6629640273 | -0.283859503983421 |
| 42 | 469357 | 494775.113110159 | -3751.25821417494 | -25418.1131101585 | -0.297932452494835 |
| 43 | 490243 | 492043.22039066 | -3630.82334034446 | -1800.22039066048 | 0.143638876159344 |
| 44 | 492622 | 489013.614885245 | -3559.76497685491 | 3608.38511475499 | 0.0845102952674022 |
| 45 | 507561 | 493526.673977491 | -2605.95566993703 | 14034.3260225087 | 1.13132589087133 |
| 46 | 516922 | 501706.454810314 | -1332.62766728547 | 15215.5451896862 | 1.50898337813095 |
| 47 | 514258 | 509704.134028685 | -232.008277687304 | 4553.86597131489 | 1.3064473613905 |
| 48 | 509846 | 517983.888730881 | 771.809037758233 | -8137.88873088087 | 1.19566297073658 |
| 49 | 527070 | 527879.914601802 | 1848.46348579005 | -809.914601802334 | 1.28524601037761 |
| 50 | 541657 | 533474.116434867 | 2290.76918048472 | 8182.88356513281 | 0.526891819745618 |
| 51 | 564591 | 537721.414779163 | 2521.75902826106 | 26869.5852208373 | 0.273957056729451 |
| 52 | 555362 | 535772.554211405 | 1994.46740312697 | 19589.4457885952 | -0.624444244192327 |
| 53 | 498662 | 528264.956249811 | 874.540009023202 | -29602.9562498106 | -1.3297263451819 |
| 54 | 511038 | 531736.461121695 | 1180.66355054072 | -20698.4611216952 | 0.364600516893784 |
| 55 | 525919 | 531820.553194819 | 1051.32487453941 | -5901.55319481877 | -0.154125462297504 |
| 56 | 531673 | 533565.897723627 | 1133.21363992513 | -1892.89772362707 | 0.0973979914148125 |
| 57 | 548854 | 538764.956452034 | 1612.86380318376 | 10089.0435479661 | 0.56920711359264 |
| 58 | 560576 | 546991.665454381 | 2392.65314069555 | 13584.3345456193 | 0.924658114556693 |
| 59 | 557274 | 555270.096470374 | 3086.22637613832 | 2003.90352962578 | 0.823477113839169 |
| 60 | 565742 | 569749.830863209 | 4428.69801459732 | -4007.83086320909 | 1.59760628476911 |
| 61 | 587625 | 583927.091825855 | 5577.79577113291 | 3697.90817414471 | 1.36909041072674 |
| 62 | 619916 | 601715.570147465 | 7017.68809745242 | 18200.4298525355 | 1.71332001165164 |
| 63 | 625809 | 603390.558042547 | 6387.74347618906 | 22418.4419574528 | -0.747722420706859 |
| 64 | 619567 | 601566.472224925 | 5420.05954833842 | 18000.5277750753 | -1.14751513104079 |
| 65 | 572942 | 604005.452923902 | 5068.93452582926 | -31063.4529239017 | -0.416955285165305 |
| 66 | 572775 | 600646.504849332 | 4076.24003504636 | -27871.5048493316 | -1.1811493729211 |
| 67 | 574205 | 591842.576574667 | 2558.56965381573 | -17637.576574667 | -1.80680833828096 |
| 68 | 579799 | 588025.632348756 | 1807.13734250038 | -8226.63234875617 | -0.893567347584544 |
| 69 | 590072 | 586696.696976108 | 1437.54779935767 | 3375.30302389201 | -0.438797354495339 |
| 70 | 593408 | 586612.00417857 | 1258.21883359074 | 6795.9958214303 | -0.212780093387017 |
| 71 | 597141 | 595686.456005717 | 2178.69070574511 | 1454.54399428319 | 1.09310237563912 |
| 72 | 595404 | 603523.520478297 | 2845.01197532547 | -8119.52047829703 | 0.792466686126826 |
| 73 | 612117 | 610729.018644626 | 3358.62447498936 | 1387.9813553739 | 0.611272550554732 |
| 74 | 628232 | 610450.150259682 | 2930.06701817996 | 17781.8497403179 | -0.509639661838689 |
| 75 | 628884 | 606701.631258844 | 2143.26486294215 | 22182.3687411557 | -0.934302852289783 |
| 76 | 620735 | 602863.689341156 | 1438.8577604793 | 17871.3106588437 | -0.835949889786723 |
| 77 | 569028 | 597701.515259704 | 661.687095846967 | -28673.5152597035 | -0.923010000334175 |
| 78 | 567456 | 591834.949731607 | -106.904373108253 | -24378.9497316066 | -0.913947723568212 |
| 79 | 573100 | 588366.709075531 | -502.730752522497 | -15266.7090755313 | -0.470896325112836 |
| 80 | 584428 | 589166.404309977 | -349.330739568902 | -4738.40430997685 | 0.182371217495181 |
| 81 | 589379 | 588314.76160426 | -408.490356321883 | 1064.23839573973 | -0.0702591097000817 |
| 82 | 590865 | 588761.601213849 | -307.778537109213 | 2103.39878615144 | 0.119555359814446 |
| 83 | 595454 | 593280.142056832 | 260.372465918972 | 2173.85794316836 | 0.67480788603136 |
| 84 | 594167 | 599286.548789023 | 936.770296695594 | -5119.54878902287 | 0.804128011994672 |
| 85 | 611324 | 604126.215305524 | 1396.27330699892 | 7197.78469447561 | 0.54651240700278 |
| 86 | 612613 | 598141.31624556 | 527.127080728227 | 14471.6837544394 | -1.03323564450188 |
| 87 | 610763 | 590047.506583322 | -487.973654649369 | 20715.4934166779 | -1.20568959545499 |
| 88 | 593530 | 578890.717082424 | -1743.95854990507 | 14639.2829175756 | -1.49121165866542 |
| 89 | 542722 | 570764.567469956 | -2495.16020609854 | -28042.5674699558 | -0.892274610693797 |
| 90 | 536662 | 563080.550912568 | -3105.89084281411 | -26418.5509125678 | -0.725972936640157 |
| 91 | 543599 | 559131.784771676 | -3205.11029199645 | -15532.7847716764 | -0.117979300788563 |
| 92 | 555332 | 558169.361649688 | -2941.08020790376 | -2837.36164968747 | 0.313831639744628 |
| 93 | 560854 | 558906.615266718 | -2508.04195482672 | 1947.38473328247 | 0.514379864315808 |
| 94 | 562325 | 560917.240739744 | -1976.15285403275 | 1407.75926025638 | 0.631610993120015 |
| 95 | 554788 | 558181.37733326 | -2065.56494560298 | -3393.37733325989 | -0.106208503862178 |
| 96 | 547344 | 554204.443067959 | -2290.5132711389 | -6860.44306795879 | -0.267360605182368 |
| 97 | 565464 | 551721.832681329 | -2313.12323099343 | 13742.1673186708 | -0.0268803629545445 |
| 98 | 577992 | 552921.85390825 | -1899.58446967523 | 25070.14609175 | 0.491509721028843 |
| 99 | 579714 | 551917.455130532 | -1794.21191096471 | 27796.5448694684 | 0.125173818104719 |
| 100 | 569323 | 550260.162124113 | -1778.09704965652 | 19062.8378758873 | 0.0191382307042255 |
| 101 | 506971 | 540351.007761146 | -2734.98185530843 | -33380.0077611456 | -1.13668503794573 |
| 102 | 500857 | 531372.164444296 | -3469.76323629074 | -30515.1644442959 | -0.87325039906018 |
| 103 | 509127 | 526534.380576745 | -3630.76478182678 | -17407.3805767453 | -0.191383309228035 |
| 104 | 509933 | 519118.837000538 | -4076.22634480101 | -9185.83700053841 | -0.529407985036389 |
| 105 | 517009 | 515620.25473704 | -4008.23932452005 | 1388.74526296045 | 0.080766277049376 |
| 106 | 519164 | 514492.350814478 | -3669.2625504383 | 4671.64918552207 | 0.402613241226872 |
| 107 | 512238 | 513313.412330825 | -3376.21128169665 | -1075.41233082477 | 0.348128087845907 |
| 108 | 509239 | 513759.030694207 | -2926.48137977865 | -4520.03069420735 | 0.534442889608167 |
| 109 | 518585 | 509385.288566554 | -3096.79584904449 | 9199.71143344623 | -0.202431829775351 |
| 110 | 522975 | 501849.14069448 | -3619.25221747601 | 21125.8593055196 | -0.620881717536094 |
| 111 | 525192 | 496201.718247292 | -3857.94130654854 | 28990.2817527085 | -0.283564797042455 |
| 112 | 516847 | 491990.29715531 | -3899.53834675262 | 24856.7028446901 | -0.0494095403767893 |
| 113 | 455626 | 486637.731219184 | -4070.51646102814 | -31011.7312191836 | -0.203117774143517 |
| 114 | 454724 | 482990.409777559 | -4020.71969012125 | -28266.4097775589 | 0.0591738584654849 |
| 115 | 461251 | 478068.174745251 | -4126.80439509901 | -16817.1747452512 | -0.126079044183236 |
| 116 | 470439 | 477214.983572367 | -3741.56809336916 | -6775.98357236664 | 0.457788342527915 |
| 117 | 474605 | 474968.440442676 | -3565.63526221667 | -363.44044267616 | 0.209014761322231 |
| 118 | 476049 | 472575.275844211 | -3427.66760014285 | 3473.72415578934 | 0.163889514382643 |
| 119 | 471067 | 471519.838270356 | -3148.53674402523 | -452.838270355601 | 0.331608329552635 |
| 120 | 470984 | 471375.548687497 | -2795.0432429581 | -391.548687496538 | 0.420041977071187 |
| 121 | 502831 | 480116.912607854 | -1437.57180964461 | 22714.0873921457 | 1.61321393153564 |
| 122 | 512927 | 486229.149747088 | -549.164732224283 | 26697.8502529121 | 1.05568569877918 |
| 123 | 509673 | 483849.240529158 | -764.593242490596 | 25823.7594708419 | -0.255942132902018 |
| 124 | 484015 | 470300.426884864 | -2268.88402763454 | 13714.5731151364 | -1.78700016994556 |
| 125 | 431328 | 463348.322030413 | -2819.92386311029 | -32020.3220304125 | -0.654649231137871 |
| 126 | 436087 | 461950.986578044 | -2652.54013998299 | -25863.9865780442 | 0.198889634051188 |
| 127 | 442867 | 460769.925772181 | -2479.39942246221 | -17902.9257721808 | 0.205749105557492 |
| 128 | 447988 | 457309.738067566 | -2594.80660334305 | -9321.73806756554 | -0.137133102768924 |
| 129 | 460070 | 458123.638951212 | -2193.71174588963 | 1946.36104878778 | 0.476531345619428 |
| 130 | 467037 | 461589.95767145 | -1527.72983021058 | 5447.04232855003 | 0.79117125569164 |
| 131 | 460170 | 463335.473724583 | -1142.59984728687 | -3165.47372458285 | 0.45755126692382 |
| 132 | 464196 | 467477.910766776 | -520.76795084961 | -3281.91076677607 | 0.738859888840976 |
| 133 | 485025 | 466723.003732166 | -548.317042685174 | 18301.9962678338 | -0.0327362129941597 |
