| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.113814776340215 |
| gamma | 0.216301434418765 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 563668 | 552290.189547213 | 11377.810452787 |
| 14 | 586111 | 587547.652051669 | -1436.65205166943 |
| 15 | 604378 | 605425.394514235 | -1047.3945142345 |
| 16 | 600991 | 601842.743817279 | -851.743817278882 |
| 17 | 544686 | 545482.377585225 | -796.377585225389 |
| 18 | 537034 | 538337.182251668 | -1303.18225166795 |
| 19 | 551531 | 553118.048042585 | -1587.04804258491 |
| 20 | 563250 | 562373.086562812 | 876.913437188137 |
| 21 | 574761 | 571731.789144369 | 3029.21085563092 |
| 22 | 580112 | 583415.25420012 | -3303.25420011976 |
| 23 | 575093 | 575533.895256513 | -440.895256512798 |
| 24 | 557560 | 572984.999320969 | -15424.999320969 |
| 25 | 564478 | 571923.397087964 | -7445.39708796388 |
| 26 | 580523 | 584836.562514319 | -4313.56251431943 |
| 27 | 596594 | 595700.186084085 | 893.813915915205 |
| 28 | 586570 | 590403.488805559 | -3833.48880555865 |
| 29 | 536214 | 528785.50967207 | 7428.49032793008 |
| 30 | 523597 | 527312.050876435 | -3715.05087643536 |
| 31 | 536535 | 536299.629809384 | 235.370190615649 |
| 32 | 536322 | 544268.657974212 | -7946.65797421173 |
| 33 | 532638 | 540593.855046736 | -7955.85504673561 |
| 34 | 528222 | 535641.963340722 | -7419.96334072226 |
| 35 | 516141 | 518647.80761801 | -2506.80761801038 |
| 36 | 501866 | 508679.190577941 | -6813.19057794084 |
| 37 | 506174 | 509905.915373264 | -3731.91537326376 |
| 38 | 517945 | 519712.523920857 | -1767.52392085682 |
| 39 | 533590 | 526882.137530391 | 6707.86246960936 |
| 40 | 528379 | 524160.03617295 | 4218.96382705006 |
| 41 | 477580 | 473603.215997897 | 3976.78400210274 |
| 42 | 469357 | 466667.455964497 | 2689.54403550323 |
| 43 | 490243 | 478387.341955415 | 11855.6580445851 |
| 44 | 492622 | 496271.384351445 | -3649.38435144548 |
| 45 | 507561 | 495919.032493358 | 11641.9675066422 |
| 46 | 516922 | 512050.23478455 | 4871.76521545008 |
| 47 | 514258 | 510583.733531872 | 3674.26646812796 |
| 48 | 509846 | 510583.579611763 | -737.579611762601 |
| 49 | 527070 | 522656.200853052 | 4413.7991469485 |
| 50 | 541657 | 547071.331530476 | -5414.33153047645 |
| 51 | 564591 | 556674.53734768 | 7916.46265231993 |
| 52 | 555362 | 560387.680840902 | -5025.68084090203 |
| 53 | 498662 | 502003.356602906 | -3341.35660290555 |
| 54 | 511038 | 490549.709954275 | 20488.2900457251 |
| 55 | 525919 | 526424.925214376 | -505.925214376301 |
| 56 | 531673 | 536451.713985039 | -4778.71398503915 |
| 57 | 548854 | 539253.559984592 | 9600.44001540844 |
| 58 | 560576 | 557431.664321572 | 3144.33567842771 |
| 59 | 557274 | 557141.95267643 | 132.047323570005 |
| 60 | 565742 | 556270.056605237 | 9471.94339476258 |
| 61 | 587625 | 584198.511982946 | 3426.48801705427 |
| 62 | 619916 | 614142.971550018 | 5773.02844998229 |
| 63 | 625809 | 642812.81821346 | -17003.8182134597 |
| 64 | 619567 | 623906.191071129 | -4339.19107112929 |
| 65 | 572942 | 562652.075358768 | 10289.924641232 |
| 66 | 572775 | 567757.581787237 | 5017.41821276303 |
| 67 | 574205 | 592169.631276032 | -17964.6312760318 |
| 68 | 579799 | 585947.07091375 | -6148.0709137501 |
| 69 | 590072 | 588206.083229697 | 1865.91677030281 |
| 70 | 593408 | 598493.503297603 | -5085.50329760276 |
| 71 | 597141 | 588085.937809698 | 9055.0621903023 |
| 72 | 595404 | 595354.808003127 | 49.1919968733564 |
| 73 | 612117 | 613009.182838347 | -892.182838347391 |
| 74 | 628232 | 637379.247247959 | -9147.24724795902 |
| 75 | 628884 | 647405.009490788 | -18521.0094907878 |
| 76 | 620735 | 622866.832018274 | -2131.83201827446 |
| 77 | 569028 | 560244.088107678 | 8783.91189232212 |
| 78 | 567456 | 560333.309007557 | 7122.69099244301 |
| 79 | 573100 | 583296.938908878 | -10196.9389088777 |
| 80 | 584428 | 582250.956703062 | 2177.04329693783 |
| 81 | 589379 | 591240.41924412 | -1861.41924412025 |
| 82 | 590865 | 595704.543874355 | -4839.54387435468 |
| 83 | 595454 | 583537.785532445 | 11916.2144675546 |
| 84 | 594167 | 591984.017327899 | 2182.98267210135 |
| 85 | 611324 | 610251.860677665 | 1072.13932233537 |
| 86 | 612613 | 635244.896429347 | -22631.896429347 |
| 87 | 610763 | 628433.206076637 | -17670.2060766369 |
| 88 | 593530 | 602113.471602624 | -8583.4716026237 |
| 89 | 542722 | 532481.8073311 | 10240.1926689005 |
| 90 | 536662 | 531481.201976687 | 5180.79802331293 |
| 91 | 543599 | 548444.563365665 | -4845.56336566503 |
| 92 | 555332 | 549584.517055513 | 5747.48294448678 |
| 93 | 560854 | 559504.788418521 | 1349.21158147859 |
| 94 | 562325 | 564907.654926503 | -2582.65492650261 |
| 95 | 554788 | 553637.232935832 | 1150.76706416754 |
| 96 | 547344 | 548726.92290964 | -1382.92290963966 |
| 97 | 565464 | 558880.642702929 | 6583.35729707149 |
| 98 | 577992 | 584844.061303435 | -6852.06130343536 |
| 99 | 579714 | 591760.861718452 | -12046.861718452 |
| 100 | 569323 | 570895.830245027 | -1572.83024502685 |
| 101 | 506971 | 510926.508624314 | -3955.50862431404 |
| 102 | 500857 | 495029.036648259 | 5827.96335174085 |
| 103 | 509127 | 510489.212098665 | -1362.2120986646 |
| 104 | 509933 | 513720.758786928 | -3787.75878692779 |
| 105 | 517009 | 511655.005888835 | 5353.994111165 |
| 106 | 519164 | 519093.637973569 | 70.3620264307247 |
| 107 | 512238 | 509789.217853021 | 2448.78214697872 |
| 108 | 509239 | 505455.179418925 | 3783.82058107475 |
| 109 | 518585 | 519360.484949895 | -775.484949895123 |
| 110 | 522975 | 534893.864589454 | -11918.8645894541 |
| 111 | 525192 | 533244.490160774 | -8052.49016077374 |
| 112 | 516847 | 515359.824334282 | 1487.1756657181 |
| 113 | 455626 | 462473.718855819 | -6847.71885581937 |
| 114 | 454724 | 443158.940825633 | 11565.0591743672 |
| 115 | 461251 | 462456.730526806 | -1205.73052680638 |
| 116 | 470439 | 464382.29682902 | 6056.70317097974 |
| 117 | 474605 | 472139.004060957 | 2465.99593904341 |
| 118 | 476049 | 476332.534155845 | -283.534155845235 |
| 119 | 471067 | 467226.586150252 | 3840.41384974844 |
| 120 | 470984 | 464792.475805241 | 6191.52419475885 |
| 121 | 502831 | 480636.236609395 | 22194.7633906054 |
| 122 | 512927 | 521764.502454748 | -8837.5024547478 |
| 123 | 509673 | 526567.86836691 | -16894.8683669096 |
| 124 | 484015 | 502601.392912938 | -18586.3929129383 |
| 125 | 431328 | 433121.889068825 | -1793.88906882546 |
| 126 | 436087 | 420119.436158748 | 15967.5638412522 |
| 127 | 442867 | 444743.597497274 | -1876.59749727434 |
| 128 | 447988 | 447054.592172192 | 933.407827807532 |
| 129 | 460070 | 450212.996424705 | 9857.00357529486 |
| 130 | 467037 | 463272.299339253 | 3764.70066074748 |
| 131 | 460170 | 460380.597159224 | -210.597159224446 |
| 132 | 464196 | 455563.848562148 | 8632.15143785201 |
| 133 | 485025 | 475588.000670796 | 9436.99932920415 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 134 | 503781.068027698 | 488311.538964358 | 519250.597091038 |
| 135 | 518689.099857012 | 495180.271312358 | 542197.928401667 |
| 136 | 514941.425211778 | 484870.837259631 | 545012.013163925 |
| 137 | 466039.900320674 | 432366.375813202 | 499713.424828146 |
| 138 | 459368.712159174 | 419887.873872825 | 498849.550445523 |
| 139 | 471987.009491821 | 425146.520028669 | 518827.498954974 |
| 140 | 480264.142931661 | 426265.367724183 | 534262.918139139 |
| 141 | 486405.781888832 | 425281.786383217 | 547529.777394446 |
| 142 | 492349.538384357 | 423920.546038409 | 560778.530730306 |
| 143 | 487408.961679411 | 413044.88918814 | 561773.034170683 |
| 144 | 484620.624727362 | 403975.762360161 | 565265.487094563 |
| 145 | 497589.134000796 | 409202.63237192 | 585975.635629673 |
