| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 547612 | 547612 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 563280 | 557513.988628341 | 429.01937698686 | 5766.01137165926 | 1.23416891701438 |
| 3 | 581302 | 572722.991233788 | 1497.65940526304 | 8579.00876621214 | 1.80689081275775 |
| 4 | 572273 | 574844.859705892 | 1542.72136834783 | -2571.85970589208 | 0.0927697459434822 |
| 5 | 518654 | 547297.487183041 | -534.661142134184 | -28643.4871830413 | -4.49756232340323 |
| 6 | 520579 | 527087.456948739 | -2033.39429093934 | -6508.45694873858 | -3.00861047614945 |
| 7 | 530577 | 523431.817955529 | -2169.60657779643 | 7145.18204447107 | -0.24459283549106 |
| 8 | 540324 | 530435.477324998 | -1326.55883034471 | 9888.5226750015 | 1.36772409728111 |
| 9 | 547970 | 540451.379286298 | -208.160486641066 | 7518.62071370228 | 1.6763696113999 |
| 10 | 555654 | 550240.917135461 | 829.81263997688 | 5413.08286453897 | 1.46744392730733 |
| 11 | 551174 | 552864.550942136 | 1023.15695420101 | -1690.55094213573 | 0.261857000768485 |
| 12 | 548604 | 551204.239072688 | 725.855810431378 | -2600.23907268827 | -0.390020462968438 |
| 13 | 563668 | 561784.771613653 | 1716.57643284988 | 1883.22838634745 | 1.49576595782123 |
| 14 | 586111 | 577640.103758871 | 3289.16790924385 | 8470.89624112919 | 2.08513715226219 |
| 15 | 604378 | 589407.15870583 | 4283.41003046112 | 14970.8412941706 | 1.15148072450785 |
| 16 | 600991 | 591464.844735418 | 4020.53712528978 | 9526.15526458172 | -0.306524003408192 |
| 17 | 544686 | 579106.24755327 | 2090.85582190498 | -34420.2475532699 | -2.32284094228209 |
| 18 | 537034 | 559972.919241674 | -404.475338299396 | -22938.9192416737 | -3.02667589506284 |
| 19 | 551531 | 551442.001841401 | -1359.58193681673 | 88.9981585995018 | -1.15402455511267 |
| 20 | 563250 | 553657.193994364 | -938.90716298741 | 9592.8060056365 | 0.506077411148541 |
| 21 | 574761 | 562830.004620468 | 253.409961887592 | 11930.9953795318 | 1.42995599531362 |
| 22 | 580112 | 570699.02552398 | 1152.66624037417 | 9412.97447601956 | 1.07607965307308 |
| 23 | 575093 | 575907.734227066 | 1631.33230200598 | -814.734227066354 | 0.572257157515383 |
| 24 | 557560 | 573521.928279308 | 1158.59655651813 | -15961.9282793076 | -0.567742915268534 |
| 25 | 564478 | 572618.588692352 | 916.295164969313 | -8140.58869235214 | -0.295326450297078 |
| 26 | 580523 | 574372.423577267 | 1015.35384839964 | 6150.57642273294 | 0.119594221253288 |
| 27 | 596594 | 576178.500439239 | 1109.15106534452 | 20415.499560761 | 0.110358488920193 |
| 28 | 586570 | 570753.224402334 | 335.426430857998 | 15816.7755976663 | -0.907738318789209 |
| 29 | 536214 | 563480.997331576 | -564.452491664983 | -27266.9973315762 | -1.06847716901198 |
| 30 | 523597 | 551837.119459893 | -1875.90134904019 | -28240.1194598925 | -1.56674749873333 |
| 31 | 536535 | 543404.04663661 | -2652.58990654242 | -6869.0466366104 | -0.92648359769682 |
| 32 | 536322 | 536077.589978807 | -3206.18130067292 | 244.410021192491 | -0.658223123059779 |
| 33 | 532638 | 528294.85283111 | -3747.95488775613 | 4343.1471688896 | -0.642812056154559 |
| 34 | 528222 | 521621.254090143 | -4093.98800747847 | 6600.74590985687 | -0.410275285839995 |
| 35 | 516141 | 515687.840636561 | -4311.29630384641 | 453.159363439362 | -0.258009484050145 |
| 36 | 501866 | 514042.215951442 | -3996.62466738298 | -12176.2159514421 | 0.37536501982459 |
| 37 | 506174 | 512895.486169258 | -3659.98206001965 | -6721.48616925793 | 0.403528559443743 |
| 38 | 517945 | 510530.090531681 | -3506.82323092861 | 7414.90946831888 | 0.18294606035979 |
| 39 | 533590 | 507839.717587698 | -3410.23850788457 | 25750.2824123023 | 0.114336187823827 |
| 40 | 528379 | 505681.327018416 | -3262.38678502855 | 22697.6729815845 | 0.174623335458198 |
| 41 | 477580 | 500392.66294632 | -3501.47020842419 | -22812.6629463197 | -0.283859499218069 |
| 42 | 469357 | 494775.113119562 | -3751.25822717719 | -25418.1131195616 | -0.297932447876985 |
| 43 | 490243 | 492043.220411341 | -3630.82334871831 | -1800.22041134069 | 0.143638880163299 |
| 44 | 492622 | 489013.61490577 | -3559.7649832176 | 3608.38509422954 | 0.0845102967643728 |
| 45 | 507561 | 493526.673986831 | -2605.95566291297 | 14034.3260131689 | 1.13132589474169 |
| 46 | 516922 | 501706.454816569 | -1332.62764283605 | 15215.5451834308 | 1.50898338276759 |
| 47 | 514258 | 509704.134040676 | -232.008239361179 | 4553.86595932394 | 1.30644736402109 |
| 48 | 509846 | 517983.888746131 | 771.80908661951 | -8137.8887461311 | 1.19566297062544 |
| 49 | 527070 | 527879.914615086 | 1848.46354439645 | -809.91461508641 | 1.2852460083897 |
| 50 | 541657 | 533474.116447601 | 2290.76923857376 | 8182.88355239898 | 0.52689181354573 |
| 51 | 564591 | 537721.414788263 | 2521.75908243828 | 26869.5852117373 | 0.273957049191261 |
| 52 | 555362 | 535772.554225262 | 1994.4674437803 | 19589.4457747375 | -0.624444253606444 |
| 53 | 498662 | 528264.956274434 | 874.540029823437 | -29602.9562744344 | -1.32972635469623 |
| 54 | 511038 | 531736.461148137 | 1180.66357356825 | -20698.4611481373 | 0.364600515692113 |
| 55 | 525919 | 531820.553234538 | 1051.32489452886 | -5901.55323453775 | -0.154125464287995 |
| 56 | 531673 | 533565.897767055 | 1133.21365918969 | -1892.89776705531 | 0.0973979895217234 |
| 57 | 548854 | 538764.956487462 | 1612.86382623658 | 10089.0435125381 | 0.569207112058852 |
| 58 | 560576 | 546991.665479493 | 2392.65317119529 | 13584.334520507 | 0.924658113595356 |
| 59 | 557274 | 555270.096489875 | 3086.22641250104 | 2003.903510125 | 0.823477112086459 |
| 60 | 565742 | 569749.830873649 | 4428.69806519384 | -4007.83087364933 | 1.59760628480249 |
| 61 | 587625 | 583927.091833023 | 5577.79583215094 | 3697.90816697729 | 1.36909040864567 |
| 62 | 619916 | 601715.570152287 | 7017.6881720191 | 18200.4298477134 | 1.71332000962741 |
| 63 | 625809 | 603390.55806152 | 6387.74353443811 | 22418.4419384797 | -0.747722432161652 |
| 64 | 619567 | 601566.472248913 | 5420.05958619885 | 18000.5277510874 | -1.14751514307967 |
| 65 | 572942 | 604005.45295063 | 5068.93455443344 | -31063.4529506296 | -0.41695529174595 |
| 66 | 572775 | 600646.504883253 | 4076.24004665393 | -27871.5048832525 | -1.18114938064604 |
| 67 | 574205 | 591842.576612582 | 2558.56964238819 | -17637.5766125816 | -1.80680834658242 |
| 68 | 579799 | 588025.632376211 | 1807.13732022275 | -8226.63237621057 | -0.89356735102819 |
| 69 | 590072 | 586696.696991387 | 1437.54777287855 | 3375.30300861256 | -0.438797354838581 |
| 70 | 593408 | 586612.004182289 | 1258.21880625378 | 6795.99581771144 | -0.212780092153038 |
| 71 | 597141 | 595686.45599469 | 2178.69069331136 | 1454.54400530976 | 1.09310238177177 |
| 72 | 595404 | 603523.520460468 | 2845.01197327005 | -8119.52046046812 | 0.79246669008323 |
| 73 | 612117 | 610729.018617998 | 3358.62447963003 | 1387.98138200212 | 0.611272552051943 |
| 74 | 628232 | 610450.150227571 | 2930.0670153769 | 17781.8497724285 | -0.509639665294579 |
| 75 | 628884 | 606701.631228732 | 2143.26484922931 | 22182.3687712675 | -0.934302855356807 |
| 76 | 620735 | 602863.689315845 | 1438.85773867602 | 17871.3106841547 | -0.835949890544034 |
| 77 | 569028 | 597701.515239893 | 661.687065929141 | -28673.5152398926 | -0.923010000205397 |
| 78 | 567456 | 591834.949721007 | -106.904409623391 | -24378.9497210069 | -0.913947721739937 |
| 79 | 573100 | 588366.709075597 | -502.730789252982 | -15266.7090755967 | -0.470896320384087 |
| 80 | 584428 | 589166.404315997 | -349.330769034934 | -4738.40431599722 | 0.182371224201084 |
| 81 | 589379 | 588314.761616334 | -408.49038246731 | 1064.23838366622 | -0.0702591050128839 |
| 82 | 590865 | 588761.601222502 | -307.778559110533 | 2103.39877749764 | 0.119555363468906 |
| 83 | 595454 | 593280.142049703 | 260.372452931264 | 2173.85795029666 | 0.674807889596922 |
| 84 | 594167 | 599286.548766943 | 936.77029333613 | -5119.54876694302 | 0.804128014930195 |
| 85 | 611324 | 604126.215273484 | 1396.27330956105 | 7197.7847265161 | 0.546512408259635 |
| 86 | 612613 | 598141.316216682 | 527.127070689038 | 14471.6837833177 | -1.03323564854377 |
| 87 | 610763 | 590047.506553395 | -487.973678429372 | 20715.4934466053 | -1.20568959901609 |
| 88 | 593530 | 578890.717053836 | -1743.95858903651 | 14639.282946164 | -1.4912116611147 |
| 89 | 542722 | 570764.567442755 | -2495.16025140971 | -28042.567442755 | -0.892274608592622 |
| 90 | 536662 | 563080.550894782 | -3105.89089058546 | -26418.5508947822 | -0.725972931880491 |
| 91 | 543599 | 559131.784762458 | -3205.11033458212 | -15532.7847624584 | -0.117979293373437 |
| 92 | 555332 | 558169.36164764 | -2941.08024078271 | -2837.36164763988 | 0.31383164796021 |
| 93 | 560854 | 558906.615271914 | -2508.04197666957 | 1947.38472808634 | 0.514379871981364 |
| 94 | 562325 | 560917.240746334 | -1976.15286538761 | 1407.75925366567 | 0.631610998891366 |
| 95 | 554788 | 558181.377333311 | -2065.5649576942 | -3393.3773333115 | -0.106208503613013 |
| 96 | 547344 | 554204.443048161 | -2290.51328742167 | -6860.44304816114 | -0.267360607334393 |
| 97 | 565464 | 551721.83264064 | -2313.12324814818 | 13742.1673593598 | -0.0268803637066489 |
| 98 | 577992 | 552921.853861406 | -1899.58447950732 | 25070.1461385943 | 0.491509724529242 |
| 99 | 579714 | 551917.455095242 | -1794.2119167434 | 27796.5449047577 | 0.125173821595154 |
| 100 | 569323 | 550260.162105722 | -1778.09705253135 | 19062.8378942784 | 0.0191382339503915 |
| 101 | 506971 | 540351.007762788 | -2734.981869433 | -33380.0077627883 | -1.1366850392812 |
| 102 | 500857 | 531372.164453696 | -3469.76325854895 | -30515.1644536956 | -0.873250399483797 |
| 103 | 509127 | 526534.38058722 | -3630.76480368551 | -17407.3805872196 | -0.191383306727223 |
| 104 | 509933 | 519118.837013787 | -4076.22637025327 | -9185.83701378673 | -0.529407983703355 |
| 105 | 517009 | 515620.25474306 | -4008.23934683648 | 1388.74525694045 | 0.0807662799199143 |
| 106 | 519164 | 514492.350811308 | -3669.26256626959 | 4671.64918869247 | 0.402613244669348 |
| 107 | 512238 | 513313.412321409 | -3376.21129212911 | -1075.41232140873 | 0.348128090575552 |
| 108 | 509239 | 513759.030677003 | -2926.4813833458 | -4520.03067700272 | 0.534442892110049 |
| 109 | 518585 | 509385.288545129 | -3096.79585517063 | 9199.71145487063 | -0.202431830674047 |
| 110 | 522975 | 501849.140666221 | -3619.25223130021 | 21125.8593337794 | -0.620881720112456 |
| 111 | 525192 | 496201.718213508 | -3857.94132287465 | 28990.2817864919 | -0.283564797013885 |
| 112 | 516847 | 491990.297126022 | -3899.53836123468 | 24856.7028739778 | -0.0494095376635771 |
| 113 | 455626 | 486637.731207509 | -4070.51647422532 | -31011.7312075088 | -0.203117770467696 |
| 114 | 454724 | 482990.40978123 | -4020.71969923411 | -28266.4097812299 | 0.0591738626926058 |
| 115 | 461251 | 478068.174760258 | -4126.8044033517 | -16817.1747602575 | -0.126079041826372 |
| 116 | 470439 | 477214.983591108 | -3741.56809459666 | -6775.9835911082 | 0.457788346030727 |
| 117 | 474605 | 474968.440462894 | -3565.63526056195 | -363.440462893814 | 0.209014762534478 |
| 118 | 476049 | 472575.275857798 | -3427.6675974523 | 3473.72414220152 | 0.163889513878872 |
| 119 | 471067 | 471519.838272085 | -3148.53673897879 | -452.838272084625 | 0.331608328842291 |
| 120 | 470984 | 471375.548677122 | -2795.043234778 | -391.548677122383 | 0.4200419763491 |
| 121 | 502831 | 480116.912588085 | -1437.57178374944 | 22714.0874119148 | 1.61321393551243 |
| 122 | 512927 | 486229.149737348 | -549.164695248747 | 26697.8502626524 | 1.05568570077217 |
| 123 | 509673 | 483849.240534439 | -764.593211238066 | 25823.7594655609 | -0.255942136992729 |
| 124 | 484015 | 470300.426900249 | -2268.88402079315 | 13714.5730997507 | -1.7870001800348 |
| 125 | 431328 | 463348.322039455 | -2819.92386585069 | -32020.3220394546 | -0.65464923559356 |
| 126 | 436087 | 461950.986586016 | -2652.54014008761 | -25863.9865860157 | 0.198889635078084 |
| 127 | 442867 | 460769.925788297 | -2479.39941907297 | -17902.9257882968 | 0.205749107531588 |
| 128 | 447988 | 457309.738089271 | -2594.80660137684 | -9321.73808927074 | -0.137133103008411 |
| 129 | 460070 | 458123.63896937 | -2193.71173872684 | 1946.36103063003 | 0.476531346750334 |
| 130 | 467037 | 461589.95768662 | -1527.72981453655 | 5447.04231337959 | 0.791171257430654 |
| 131 | 460170 | 463335.473738954 | -1142.59982793856 | -3165.47373895373 | 0.457551266446998 |
| 132 | 464196 | 467477.910773215 | -520.767925649044 | -3281.91077321513 | 0.738859887974799 |
| 133 | 485025 | 466723.003728738 | -548.317022012195 | 18301.9962712619 | -0.0327362180277384 |
