Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 127 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 128.7 | 128.627779105219 | 0.383357530287477 | 0.0722208947813647 | 0.190589315255509 |
3 | 127.3 | 127.208475914345 | -0.590519358918518 | 0.0915240856554528 | -0.261814842687197 |
4 | 136.7 | 136.656805376445 | 4.93500177677324 | 0.0431946235547903 | 1.4553803201366 |
5 | 133.8 | 133.739918760394 | 0.590749891048675 | 0.060081239605609 | -1.13959552770475 |
6 | 137.2 | 137.142614665164 | 2.14916214136796 | 0.057385334835917 | 0.408476928531152 |
7 | 147.4 | 147.34605430115 | 6.6157495933667 | 0.0539456988504189 | 1.17055421103144 |
8 | 137.6 | 137.542931971083 | -2.4918507622606 | 0.0570680289167947 | -2.38674423945427 |
9 | 123.6 | 123.541957501763 | -8.87669656883999 | 0.0580424982367176 | -1.67320672558731 |
10 | 117.4 | 117.342058405211 | -7.39163518962614 | 0.0579415947891824 | 0.389173312496358 |
11 | 113.7 | 113.642120359266 | -5.34347413021811 | 0.0578796407344705 | 0.536738372152765 |
12 | 106.8 | 106.742108730024 | -6.20705235688411 | 0.0578912699757115 | -0.226308154233243 |
13 | 103.3 | 103.156703446964 | -4.79183369973839 | 0.143296553035969 | 0.428270717139422 |
14 | 96.3 | 96.3544677470232 | -5.77713414729819 | -0.0544677470231979 | -0.235503040913116 |
15 | 96.2 | 96.2768397818681 | -2.59060349357516 | -0.07683978186815 | 0.819386291384987 |
16 | 94.7 | 94.7787475967923 | -1.98412750154993 | -0.0787475967923184 | 0.158337994280474 |
17 | 94.6 | 94.6802140768727 | -0.938314177477393 | -0.0802140768727108 | 0.273861113635944 |
18 | 95.7 | 95.7809202838971 | 0.192668155360484 | -0.0809202838971161 | 0.296340124762483 |
19 | 106.7 | 106.782587200029 | 6.1888063041347 | -0.0825872000287598 | 1.57129411627298 |
20 | 100.2 | 100.281715919158 | -0.85111262223304 | -0.0817159191584022 | -1.8448610509922 |
21 | 94.2 | 94.2815585228665 | -3.70777584068106 | -0.0815585228665267 | -0.748612473351258 |
22 | 97.6 | 97.6816552523405 | 0.235699484148239 | -0.0816552523404956 | 1.03342161851178 |
23 | 94.3 | 94.3816338311054 | -1.72594680595245 | -0.0816338311053765 | -0.514066371901746 |
24 | 98 | 98.0816484659719 | 1.28443013174302 | -0.081648465971922 | 0.788895334512656 |
25 | 93.6 | 93.5128474131886 | -1.92214234659648 | 0.0871525868114275 | -0.902319761858545 |
26 | 86.3 | 86.376707965527 | -4.59899727617168 | -0.0767079655269655 | -0.668305497210993 |
27 | 90.7 | 90.7996884849027 | 0.431540837488466 | -0.099688484902666 | 1.30220643752943 |
28 | 81.8 | 81.8890995572095 | -4.75345645528474 | -0.0890995572094741 | -1.35547532375891 |
29 | 87.6 | 87.6944289388767 | 1.10345809250231 | -0.0944289388767269 | 1.53411629248791 |
30 | 73.8 | 73.8910786565622 | -7.16563587924557 | -0.091078656562223 | -2.16678089260807 |
31 | 63.3 | 63.3907449650605 | -9.01560052419628 | -0.0907449650605219 | -0.484790084109196 |
32 | 59.1 | 59.1909595135199 | -6.34384448302101 | -0.0909595135198518 | 0.700154179256065 |
33 | 52.9 | 52.9909623665869 | -6.26403789338697 | -0.0909623665869384 | 0.0209139922732658 |
34 | 54.6 | 54.691032689381 | -1.84549880597178 | -0.0910326893809858 | 1.15791625480893 |
35 | 52.4 | 52.4910312958245 | -2.04218009872663 | -0.0910312958245312 | -0.0515420342059423 |
36 | 67.5 | 67.59106129553 | 7.46849617161482 | -0.0910612955300322 | 2.49235504938546 |
37 | 90.4 | 88.2107732719322 | 14.7050973228298 | 2.18922672806783 | 1.98834054118737 |
38 | 126 | 125.975338637739 | 26.7965696264204 | 0.024661362260549 | 3.06685692427101 |
39 | 144.3 | 144.259289825136 | 22.0561834938649 | 0.0407101748640001 | -1.23102544647925 |
40 | 167.8 | 167.760502251157 | 22.8581169415097 | 0.0394977488433887 | 0.209775989294691 |
41 | 166.2 | 166.151361297901 | 9.28549649016169 | 0.0486387020987823 | -3.5555553978508 |
42 | 156 | 155.948119391511 | -1.52574870628067 | 0.0518806084888391 | -2.83298032131916 |
43 | 137 | 136.946825115271 | -11.2207454212739 | 0.0531748847286753 | -2.54062226951529 |
44 | 129.3 | 129.246941208309 | -9.26739253084027 | 0.0530587916911508 | 0.511891617735143 |
45 | 118 | 117.94691137036 | -10.3951066250884 | 0.0530886296396435 | -0.295527080098386 |
46 | 114.7 | 114.646957738365 | -6.45866061203279 | 0.0530422616349623 | 1.03157964859788 |
47 | 112.8 | 112.746971001336 | -3.92946388908883 | 0.0530289986642865 | 0.662797885707713 |
48 | 115.7 | 115.646979847077 | -0.140399737686842 | 0.0530201529229617 | 0.992957063824842 |
49 | 103.9 | 105.175167200256 | -5.83751667872533 | -1.2751672002558 | -1.54686712019771 |
50 | 96.9 | 96.803512337122 | -7.18246983836535 | 0.0964876628779657 | -0.343901040884051 |
51 | 88.8 | 88.7021372494574 | -7.69378737865023 | 0.0978627505425924 | -0.133032788874437 |
52 | 93 | 92.9100640959669 | -1.08917558181076 | 0.0899359040330941 | 1.72832693159199 |
53 | 86.3 | 86.2083996998191 | -4.20266718655179 | 0.0916003001808561 | -0.815686680996882 |
54 | 82.3 | 82.2084264630687 | -4.09022124594914 | 0.0915735369312853 | 0.0294657805104185 |
55 | 82.4 | 82.3086728018168 | -1.76542298908408 | 0.0913271981832016 | 0.609226743596087 |
56 | 76.6 | 76.5085672083313 | -4.00385518010487 | 0.0914327916686862 | -0.586599245216973 |
57 | 72.7 | 72.6085684184033 | -3.94623513100141 | 0.0914315815966977 | 0.0150998261747753 |
58 | 67.5 | 67.4085619149626 | -4.64183815887933 | 0.0914380850374433 | -0.182288780491869 |
59 | 77.3 | 77.2085952647933 | 3.37065778083926 | 0.0914047352067063 | 2.09974390033418 |
60 | 73.7 | 73.6085880985921 | -0.496742343627167 | 0.0914119014078805 | -1.0134856846369 |
61 | 73 | 73.9603672662413 | -0.0282488430988107 | -0.960367266241257 | 0.126302833910309 |
62 | 78.2 | 78.0863460233841 | 2.19385261791704 | 0.113653976615912 | 0.570973643985889 |
63 | 90.7 | 90.5991474833965 | 7.93287265957673 | 0.100852516603487 | 1.4950012489407 |
64 | 91.5 | 91.395206753305 | 3.97258877124867 | 0.104793246695019 | -1.03659938486176 |
65 | 86.3 | 86.1929511120917 | -1.11720286179593 | 0.107048887908314 | -1.33351124590418 |
66 | 86.8 | 86.6931281520005 | -0.219934655384765 | 0.106871847999509 | 0.235125975509156 |
67 | 86.1 | 85.9931047556545 | -0.486281872985442 | 0.106895244345514 | -0.0697979516514175 |
68 | 77.1 | 76.992920037146 | -5.20979470919002 | 0.10707996285397 | -1.23783517719915 |
69 | 75.7 | 75.5929568362017 | -3.09607685801697 | 0.107043163798287 | 0.553917863898697 |
70 | 78.7 | 78.5929830499777 | 0.28609597743558 | 0.10701695002225 | 0.88632761215434 |
71 | 71.5 | 71.3929687189079 | -3.86727514162355 | 0.107031281092061 | -1.08842684779443 |
72 | 69.6 | 69.4929703955193 | -2.77580854491806 | 0.107029604480722 | 0.286028271206013 |
73 | 73.6 | 74.4364353846981 | 1.48975406184796 | -0.836435384698117 | 1.14453610628337 |
74 | 78.1 | 78.0126794964928 | 2.61194940040348 | 0.0873205035071659 | 0.289296648904364 |
75 | 78.3 | 78.2101215083232 | 1.26956576862006 | 0.0898784916767702 | -0.349993243519532 |
76 | 71.5 | 71.4063144502885 | -3.21030823154873 | 0.093685549711524 | -1.17280411832219 |
77 | 68.7 | 68.6064006144885 | -2.98263648010915 | 0.0935993855114931 | 0.059651408005526 |
78 | 61.2 | 61.1059783033732 | -5.48898235193314 | 0.0940216966268146 | -0.656783571660964 |
79 | 64.7 | 64.6063524134892 | -0.501768670671522 | 0.0936475865107851 | 1.30693224703366 |
80 | 64.6 | 64.5063598575266 | -0.278862634423114 | 0.0936401424733751 | 0.0584143657481405 |
81 | 56.3 | 56.2062936949508 | -4.72908160385298 | 0.0937063050491924 | -1.1662180523733 |
82 | 54.5 | 54.4063044509801 | -3.10399379735032 | 0.0936955490198961 | 0.425868304263581 |
83 | 49.5 | 49.4063013513895 | -4.15591958314171 | 0.0936986486104564 | -0.275666256806359 |
84 | 54 | 53.9063076511185 | 0.646482931118255 | 0.0936923488815232 | 1.25851115691523 |
85 | 59.2 | 60.0241584573591 | 3.67165624309453 | -0.824158457359051 | 0.808976312459553 |
86 | 52.4 | 52.3783985059504 | -2.43998635130395 | 0.0216014940496166 | -1.57925046842773 |
87 | 52.8 | 52.7810263491983 | -0.860008099925615 | 0.0189736508016634 | 0.412208190835022 |
88 | 47.8 | 47.7793221071172 | -3.15817035368104 | 0.0206778928827505 | -0.601722561036135 |
89 | 45.2 | 45.1794243856214 | -2.84845776511071 | 0.0205756143786131 | 0.0811486856708776 |
90 | 47.1 | 47.0798117348622 | -0.213903254095438 | 0.0201882651378469 | 0.690383913491968 |
91 | 42.6 | 42.579656083156 | -2.59188846918808 | 0.0203439168440039 | -0.623167338314587 |
92 | 42.1 | 42.0796899031918 | -1.43128401215793 | 0.0203100968081996 | 0.304146033232112 |
93 | 39.4 | 39.3796807716537 | -2.13518217044185 | 0.0203192283462835 | -0.184462557276178 |
94 | 39.6 | 39.5796882541127 | -0.839596534345722 | 0.0203117458872966 | 0.339519415486168 |
95 | 37.8 | 37.7796868841102 | -1.37243928977067 | 0.0203131158898241 | -0.139636056141562 |
96 | 36.8 | 36.7796871206298 | -1.16580574100831 | 0.0203128793701822 | 0.0541501104536601 |
97 | 36.5 | 36.6880579730944 | -0.57162340993425 | -0.188057973094414 | 0.158491209446109 |
98 | 34 | 33.9917737256624 | -1.72256493967873 | 0.00822627433764428 | -0.297927483671797 |
99 | 37.5 | 37.4960595850099 | 1.18202163452419 | 0.00394041499009665 | 0.758173211245135 |
100 | 36.1 | 36.0951168361119 | -0.251203509285308 | 0.00488316388805513 | -0.375295458107339 |
101 | 35.1 | 35.0949951356151 | -0.666683974299292 | 0.00500486438494313 | -0.108863380854059 |
102 | 32.8 | 32.7948769587113 | -1.57288340591145 | 0.00512304128867397 | -0.237470113428783 |
103 | 32.2 | 32.1949082962747 | -1.03311461700702 | 0.00509170372534012 | 0.141450223602643 |
104 | 38.1 | 38.0950077168979 | 2.81345898478261 | 0.00499228310211163 | 1.00802670133569 |
105 | 41.4 | 41.3950108229701 | 3.08339750640141 | 0.0049891770298659 | 0.0707397099087507 |
106 | 38.5 | 38.4949938176814 | -0.236259492366866 | 0.00500618231864508 | -0.869944818189474 |
107 | 34.6 | 34.5949891820923 | -2.26894435411901 | 0.00501081790774651 | -0.532682662799963 |
108 | 31.2 | 31.1949885449913 | -2.89646687481182 | 0.0050114550087273 | -0.164447709576994 |
109 | 34.7 | 34.5717762516392 | 0.574766722422654 | 0.128223748360838 | 0.924089456100926 |
110 | 35.8 | 35.8091733015798 | 0.934605690698681 | -0.00917330157977408 | 0.0932738964515942 |
111 | 33.8 | 33.8070097693404 | -0.697104892249737 | -0.00700976934043372 | -0.426090078563015 |
112 | 32.5 | 32.5068119961565 | -1.03174274137318 | -0.0068119961564833 | -0.087633153654524 |
113 | 31.2 | 31.2067728242445 | -1.18058768306902 | -0.00677282424445799 | -0.0390006749936115 |
114 | 32.5 | 32.5069340790791 | 0.195693938902735 | -0.00693407907907933 | 0.360656562809303 |
115 | 32.3 | 32.3069226276468 | -0.0238422928188129 | -0.00692262764677092 | -0.0575310557033674 |
116 | 30.1 | 30.1068945904563 | -1.23120011399551 | -0.00689459045634486 | -0.316398227853732 |
117 | 25.3 | 25.3068741208107 | -3.21121109074682 | -0.00687412081066916 | -0.518878908695527 |
118 | 24.5 | 24.5068802777861 | -1.87344375360936 | -0.00688027778612152 | 0.350573498683196 |
119 | 23.7 | 23.7068814980551 | -1.27788496278451 | -0.00688149805505515 | 0.156071336399692 |
120 | 23.8 | 23.8068821953769 | -0.513418733276352 | -0.00688219537694046 | 0.200334994155345 |
121 | 26.9 | 26.7339272089189 | 1.39083580570829 | 0.16607279108106 | 0.50614060316689 |
122 | 32.4 | 32.4005596186546 | 3.71745895068945 | -0.000559618654626792 | 0.603745220791178 |
123 | 32.6 | 32.5982055773027 | 1.76206146396655 | 0.00179442269733776 | -0.510781779555395 |
124 | 31.7 | 31.6974128279423 | 0.284539132319599 | 0.00258717205766074 | -0.386950636701218 |
125 | 34.1 | 34.0976932581161 | 1.45831225307761 | 0.00230674188386363 | 0.30755853089715 |
126 | 34.9 | 34.8976544084398 | 1.09306750013425 | 0.00234559156019304 | -0.0957131521477189 |
127 | 33.1 | 33.0975784009391 | -0.512044121162899 | 0.00242159906086601 | -0.420631309595004 |
128 | 32.3 | 32.297575032974 | -0.671805410483591 | 0.00242496702595796 | -0.0418667879439563 |
129 | 34.6 | 34.5975905070958 | 0.976986186043523 | 0.00240949290416268 | 0.432080029485012 |
130 | 32.7 | 32.697583837992 | -0.619198467613463 | 0.00241616200801321 | -0.418293992713803 |
131 | 32.6 | 32.5975843737975 | -0.331141258856986 | 0.00241562620249908 | 0.0754878850883823 |
132 | 41 | 40.9975883851319 | 4.51299509294626 | 0.00241161486812789 | 1.26944787149091 |
133 | 40 | 40.154277338662 | 1.54769311963504 | -0.154277338661983 | -0.787146587211588 |