Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 101.76 | 101.76 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 102.37 | 102.317472718342 | 0.0347185971257907 | 0.0525272816583401 | 1.21653408394074 |
3 | 102.38 | 102.363096703179 | 0.0353709973017193 | 0.0169032968206491 | 0.0374807288619288 |
4 | 102.86 | 102.766012138015 | 0.0618267673712509 | 0.0939878619853349 | 1.26006628544049 |
5 | 102.87 | 102.856525994415 | 0.064393816668013 | 0.0134740055853279 | 0.097061455144699 |
6 | 102.92 | 102.895144192622 | 0.0617022027945909 | 0.0248558073780442 | -0.0863355542102652 |
7 | 102.95 | 102.923266405444 | 0.0578077936647417 | 0.0267335945557931 | -0.111558917576504 |
8 | 103.02 | 102.98636077963 | 0.0584674245134631 | 0.0336392203704683 | 0.0174495533730799 |
9 | 104.08 | 103.906384008719 | 0.1716865644344 | 0.173615991281025 | 2.82958576260238 |
10 | 104.16 | 104.162351654141 | 0.183178957965304 | -0.00235165414137558 | 0.275755218149284 |
11 | 104.24 | 104.231111063131 | 0.167159739225348 | 0.0088889368694055 | -0.373300151569999 |
12 | 104.33 | 104.306402225415 | 0.15405268460867 | 0.023597774584827 | -0.299090948638062 |
13 | 104.73 | 104.860469594301 | 0.207117411886048 | -0.130469594300989 | 1.47412309783394 |
14 | 104.86 | 104.856636596468 | 0.176237437180991 | 0.00336340353196357 | -0.613919386963493 |
15 | 105.03 | 105.069025950853 | 0.181514555096409 | -0.0390259508525292 | 0.114470266112151 |
16 | 105.62 | 105.494732795341 | 0.217288646304424 | 0.125267204658624 | 0.786668310564277 |
17 | 105.63 | 105.65756313702 | 0.209287094645434 | -0.0275631370200721 | -0.174805076258156 |
18 | 105.63 | 105.652031424569 | 0.177639829412378 | -0.0220314245686483 | -0.689462488526478 |
19 | 105.94 | 105.881191492708 | 0.18524587201111 | 0.0588085072916549 | 0.165392890231027 |
20 | 106.61 | 106.59807540262 | 0.263849096224094 | 0.0119245973797548 | 1.70670020286748 |
21 | 107.69 | 107.450004125229 | 0.350889138934492 | 0.239995874771297 | 1.88783100842432 |
22 | 107.78 | 107.820014813183 | 0.35372169968546 | -0.0400148131827366 | 0.0613901764316693 |
23 | 107.93 | 107.97153810996 | 0.3237564018888 | -0.0415381099598713 | -0.649034296086546 |
24 | 108.48 | 108.474179945053 | 0.350196044235179 | 0.0058200549466619 | 0.573277064940319 |
25 | 108.14 | 108.369835684751 | 0.283469851835891 | -0.229835684750735 | -1.52703398146749 |
26 | 108.48 | 108.502559420457 | 0.261203837856898 | -0.0225594204567996 | -0.466573400301903 |
27 | 108.48 | 108.595840947403 | 0.236518959765353 | -0.115840947402508 | -0.52880654107407 |
28 | 108.89 | 108.754077483945 | 0.224963005931934 | 0.135922516055127 | -0.250963502600213 |
29 | 108.93 | 108.906008556163 | 0.21416192660923 | 0.0239914438367088 | -0.233533413384635 |
30 | 109.21 | 109.195067450371 | 0.225238948215853 | 0.0149325496287015 | 0.239287207579441 |
31 | 109.47 | 109.491641959238 | 0.235788138049913 | -0.0216419592382327 | 0.22800989922013 |
32 | 109.8 | 109.87249692127 | 0.257240968771829 | -0.072496921269895 | 0.463856853137475 |
33 | 111.73 | 111.227936559645 | 0.419656202248046 | 0.502063440355448 | 3.51250250748463 |
34 | 111.85 | 111.86707462599 | 0.452117757979214 | -0.0170746259902029 | 0.702089726956255 |
35 | 112.12 | 112.249011290206 | 0.441743034532062 | -0.129011290206267 | -0.224285673286272 |
36 | 112.15 | 112.188971200622 | 0.367730337744733 | -0.0389712006215618 | -1.60540473444874 |
37 | 112.17 | 112.390198530513 | 0.343180227978324 | -0.220198530512827 | -0.544259583426675 |
38 | 112.67 | 112.663055464535 | 0.332801799953485 | 0.00694453546530825 | -0.221512032443055 |
39 | 112.8 | 112.908784344848 | 0.320004833534149 | -0.108784344847706 | -0.274447825359877 |
40 | 113.44 | 113.263023114045 | 0.325047947686851 | 0.176976885954497 | 0.109440013054063 |
41 | 113.53 | 113.519325206873 | 0.314899108821231 | 0.0106747931268652 | -0.219640800812342 |
42 | 114.53 | 114.362028613652 | 0.39283913660033 | 0.16797138634817 | 1.68370953207125 |
43 | 114.51 | 114.617911585248 | 0.372618191761931 | -0.107911585248455 | -0.436936613025504 |
44 | 115.05 | 115.284914564748 | 0.416080409314063 | -0.234914564747819 | 0.939601821056264 |
45 | 116.67 | 116.131466885194 | 0.47963653068525 | 0.538533114805903 | 1.37440659451406 |
46 | 117.07 | 117.000315957136 | 0.537097267289448 | 0.0696840428640189 | 1.24250556481711 |
47 | 116.92 | 117.08559372415 | 0.470440601663566 | -0.165593724149674 | -1.44086873150839 |
48 | 117 | 117.108378747358 | 0.404494399091169 | -0.108378747357779 | -1.43164644904034 |
49 | 117.02 | 117.27066165781 | 0.368784058770885 | -0.250661657810029 | -0.782605866689142 |
50 | 117.35 | 117.372915778328 | 0.329478226039381 | -0.0229157783284112 | -0.844391729496933 |
51 | 117.36 | 117.497660005017 | 0.299379264509039 | -0.137660005017083 | -0.646510140053552 |
52 | 117.82 | 117.649255399569 | 0.277631536150262 | 0.170744600430895 | -0.471422125092227 |
53 | 117.88 | 117.950340427492 | 0.281089309003789 | -0.0703404274919172 | 0.0748875130891184 |
54 | 118.24 | 118.070387404352 | 0.257335350072416 | 0.169612595648408 | -0.513390879696889 |
55 | 118.5 | 118.596688309705 | 0.297004046874783 | -0.096688309704913 | 0.857194639879335 |
56 | 118.8 | 119.102877514441 | 0.327853732568367 | -0.302877514440688 | 0.666895154371982 |
57 | 119.76 | 119.348102585206 | 0.315668020619397 | 0.411897414794188 | -0.263489131279688 |
58 | 120.09 | 119.873375327826 | 0.346574409909749 | 0.216624672173993 | 0.668167654187716 |