| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.441210707478379 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 14483 | 13934.6017628205 | 548.398237179494 |
| 14 | 14011 | 13700.0651619681 | 310.934838031908 |
| 15 | 15057 | 14874.7571667776 | 182.242833222448 |
| 16 | 14884 | 14775.1272144315 | 108.87278556845 |
| 17 | 15414 | 15368.5006114524 | 45.4993885475942 |
| 18 | 14440 | 14429.1213204717 | 10.8786795282867 |
| 19 | 14900 | 14650.1753353045 | 249.824664695454 |
| 20 | 15074 | 15288.8215439688 | -214.821543968768 |
| 21 | 14442 | 14114.5442035144 | 327.455796485565 |
| 22 | 15307 | 15602.3170987581 | -295.31709875812 |
| 23 | 14938 | 15141.315924293 | -203.315924292978 |
| 24 | 17193 | 17250.6149864358 | -57.6149864357758 |
| 25 | 15528 | 15827.5545920911 | -299.554592091115 |
| 26 | 14765 | 15086.2001187185 | -321.200118718463 |
| 27 | 15838 | 15910.0756977176 | -72.0756977176115 |
| 28 | 15723 | 15657.2392893898 | 65.7607106101714 |
| 29 | 16150 | 16196.1788016315 | -46.1788016315058 |
| 30 | 15486 | 15197.0044300021 | 288.995569997942 |
| 31 | 15986 | 15674.2870528431 | 311.712947156862 |
| 32 | 15983 | 16080.5997081844 | -97.5997081844453 |
| 33 | 15692 | 15261.0606682514 | 430.93933174859 |
| 34 | 16490 | 16446.492781766 | 43.5072182340009 |
| 35 | 15686 | 16186.3937951024 | -500.393795102364 |
| 36 | 18897 | 18246.0350436741 | 650.964956325857 |
| 37 | 16316 | 17000.4144461032 | -684.414446103227 |
| 38 | 15636 | 16077.1603957515 | -441.160395751513 |
| 39 | 17163 | 16987.3162750125 | 175.68372498747 |
| 40 | 16534 | 16920.8154859541 | -386.815485954095 |
| 41 | 16518 | 17197.522933471 | -679.522933471038 |
| 42 | 16375 | 16106.2021993496 | 268.797800650411 |
| 43 | 16290 | 16587.2675771979 | -297.267577197941 |
| 44 | 16352 | 16496.1719754498 | -144.171975449797 |
| 45 | 15943 | 15951.426708722 | -8.42670872198141 |
| 46 | 16362 | 16726.5129040676 | -364.512904067604 |
| 47 | 16393 | 15982.4650081338 | 410.534991866156 |
| 48 | 19051 | 19087.3847334156 | -36.3847334155798 |
| 49 | 16747 | 16792.3023814175 | -45.3023814175067 |
| 50 | 16320 | 16286.9591759828 | 33.0408240172001 |
| 51 | 17910 | 17751.0236007289 | 158.976399271061 |
| 52 | 16961 | 17362.8328245451 | -401.832824545087 |
| 53 | 17480 | 17469.3526739641 | 10.6473260359453 |
| 54 | 17049 | 17212.4539204235 | -163.453920423526 |
| 55 | 16879 | 17186.4939385992 | -307.493938599233 |
| 56 | 17473 | 17176.4345396913 | 296.565460308688 |
| 57 | 16998 | 16902.0003503647 | 95.9996496353015 |
| 58 | 17307 | 17524.1834199866 | -217.183419986632 |
| 59 | 17418 | 17278.2273353959 | 139.772664604141 |
| 60 | 20169 | 20013.9498656037 | 155.050134396311 |
| 61 | 17871 | 17798.347540851 | 72.6524591490233 |
| 62 | 17226 | 17388.8246184119 | -162.824618411865 |
| 63 | 19062 | 18836.8425637327 | 225.15743626728 |
| 64 | 17804 | 18164.4773802878 | -360.477380287797 |
| 65 | 19100 | 18519.733186048 | 580.266813952006 |
| 66 | 18522 | 18416.8707374282 | 105.129262571838 |
| 67 | 18060 | 18428.9245119388 | -368.924511938843 |
| 68 | 18869 | 18729.3032104637 | 139.696789536258 |
| 69 | 18127 | 18273.5828564742 | -146.582856474226 |
| 70 | 18871 | 18613.7325810499 | 257.267418950094 |
| 71 | 18890 | 18776.5725247399 | 113.427475260116 |
| 72 | 21263 | 21509.2081618553 | -246.208161855273 |
| 73 | 19547 | 19070.523441675 | 476.47655832503 |
| 74 | 18450 | 18707.5899661548 | -257.589966154817 |
| 75 | 20254 | 20330.5966431988 | -76.5966431988127 |
| 76 | 19240 | 19197.8478640493 | 42.1521359506733 |
| 77 | 20216 | 20256.4259062639 | -40.4259062638594 |
| 78 | 19420 | 19614.2054072447 | -194.205407244728 |
| 79 | 19415 | 19229.2933470368 | 185.706652963192 |
| 80 | 20018 | 20058.5933914304 | -40.5933914303896 |
| 81 | 18652 | 19363.3570782876 | -711.357078287634 |
| 82 | 19978 | 19679.9895785805 | 298.010421419513 |
| 83 | 19509 | 19780.4295508439 | -271.429550843917 |
| 84 | 21971 | 22142.3016039646 | -171.30160396465 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 20140.4949426918 | 19558.6626343112 | 20722.3272510724 |
| 86 | 19157.1463938983 | 18521.1989196277 | 19793.0938681689 |
| 87 | 20994.9416530345 | 20309.1358897262 | 21680.7474163428 |
| 88 | 19962.34367931 | 19230.0664777377 | 20694.6208808822 |
| 89 | 20956.1800220131 | 20180.2094975097 | 21732.1505465165 |
| 90 | 20245.8655271397 | 19428.5341317719 | 21063.1969225074 |
| 91 | 20158.9297634023 | 19302.2320542835 | 21015.6274725212 |
| 92 | 20779.8400023543 | 19885.5071114434 | 21674.1728932652 |
| 93 | 19727.6983621353 | 18797.2513326271 | 20658.1453916436 |
| 94 | 20922.2129732649 | 19957.0021000997 | 21887.4238464301 |
| 95 | 20572.9705974233 | 19574.2051671885 | 21571.736027658 |
| 96 | 23110.5506993007 | 22079.3219469922 | 24141.7794516092 |
