| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.448647664930442 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.917400323714332 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1281151 | 1215879.20032051 | 65271.7996794875 |
| 14 | 1164976 | 1123444.11350152 | 41531.8864984801 |
| 15 | 1454329 | 1427429.46173488 | 26899.5382651163 |
| 16 | 1645288 | 1624863.37443423 | 20424.6255657671 |
| 17 | 1817743 | 1803083.41600372 | 14659.5839962757 |
| 18 | 1895785 | 1888884.2768015 | 6900.72319849744 |
| 19 | 2236311 | 2150219.01781984 | 86091.9821801628 |
| 20 | 2295951 | 2276185.8572632 | 19765.1427368019 |
| 21 | 2087315 | 2096236.06506808 | -8921.06506807916 |
| 22 | 1980891 | 1934452.89772559 | 46438.1022744097 |
| 23 | 1465446 | 1552952.69987714 | -87506.6998771364 |
| 24 | 1445026 | 1501923.14598049 | -56897.1459804876 |
| 25 | 1488120 | 1506387.9705408 | -18267.9705407971 |
| 26 | 1338333 | 1364465.05615225 | -26132.056152245 |
| 27 | 1715789 | 1630691.9345934 | 85097.0654066005 |
| 28 | 1806090 | 1850960.951108 | -44870.951108004 |
| 29 | 2083316 | 1996970.26432269 | 86345.7356773093 |
| 30 | 2092278 | 2111008.43400999 | -18730.4340099874 |
| 31 | 2430800 | 2400899.61110104 | 29900.3888989612 |
| 32 | 2424894 | 2468107.39100181 | -43213.3910018122 |
| 33 | 2299016 | 2245392.63267919 | 53623.3673208132 |
| 34 | 2130688 | 2139671.14419409 | -8983.14419408655 |
| 35 | 1652221 | 1665555.60456824 | -13334.604568237 |
| 36 | 1608162 | 1663285.83130574 | -55123.8313057413 |
| 37 | 1647074 | 1688085.30389886 | -41011.30389886 |
| 38 | 1479691 | 1531980.90658815 | -52289.9065881462 |
| 39 | 1884978 | 1842733.01865781 | 42244.981342189 |
| 40 | 2007898 | 1978037.31992464 | 29860.6800753602 |
| 41 | 2208954 | 2223945.62368295 | -14991.6236829511 |
| 42 | 2217164 | 2239370.36115106 | -22206.3611510559 |
| 43 | 2534291 | 2552300.06760609 | -18009.0676060915 |
| 44 | 2560312 | 2561031.64143477 | -719.641434774734 |
| 45 | 2429069 | 2406362.6838597 | 22706.3161403029 |
| 46 | 2315077 | 2255103.28221314 | 59973.7177868634 |
| 47 | 1799608 | 1809724.06199651 | -10116.0619965089 |
| 48 | 1772590 | 1787760.83768978 | -15170.8376897837 |
| 49 | 1744799 | 1837623.39650401 | -92824.3965040087 |
| 50 | 1659093 | 1652568.33701364 | 6524.66298636142 |
| 51 | 2099821 | 2037524.23668776 | 62296.7633122366 |
| 52 | 2135736 | 2175560.60964975 | -39824.6096497495 |
| 53 | 2427894 | 2367517.99076833 | 60376.009231675 |
| 54 | 2468882 | 2413106.94854737 | 55775.0514526269 |
| 55 | 2703217 | 2763145.87012564 | -59928.8701256411 |
| 56 | 2766841 | 2761815.40110738 | 5025.59889262356 |
| 57 | 2655236 | 2621573.1347815 | 33662.8652184978 |
| 58 | 2550373 | 2494079.61793311 | 56293.3820668897 |
| 59 | 2052097 | 2011597.0553574 | 40499.9446425957 |
| 60 | 1998055 | 2009785.82404623 | -11730.8240462292 |
| 61 | 1920748 | 2021913.72741346 | -101165.727413461 |
| 62 | 1876694 | 1883368.17760862 | -6674.1776086234 |
| 63 | 2380930 | 2290612.57954881 | 90317.4204511885 |
| 64 | 2467402 | 2389566.26046102 | 77835.7395389848 |
| 65 | 2770771 | 2684994.23876441 | 85776.7612355868 |
| 66 | 2781340 | 2739651.9704334 | 41688.0295666009 |
| 67 | 3143926 | 3024846.48816507 | 119079.511834925 |
| 68 | 3172235 | 3136682.38434739 | 35552.6156526124 |
| 69 | 2952540 | 3024621.03170394 | -72081.0317039373 |
| 70 | 2920877 | 2861132.52249369 | 59744.477506306 |
| 71 | 2384552 | 2372209.79444143 | 12342.2055585687 |
| 72 | 2248987 | 2331346.77178789 | -82359.7717878944 |
| 73 | 2208616 | 2266550.02169965 | -57934.0216996511 |
| 74 | 2178756 | 2195195.12312285 | -16439.1231228514 |
| 75 | 2632870 | 2647117.90390306 | -14247.9039030569 |
| 76 | 2706905 | 2692845.22707026 | 14059.772929735 |
| 77 | 3029745 | 2963676.92149768 | 66068.0785023249 |
| 78 | 3015402 | 2987191.84157247 | 28210.1584275267 |
| 79 | 3391414 | 3305484.99227473 | 85929.0077252681 |
| 80 | 3507805 | 3360199.18512597 | 147605.814874034 |
| 81 | 3177852 | 3243967.97623603 | -66115.9762360342 |
| 82 | 3142961 | 3149834.44291372 | -6873.44291372132 |
| 83 | 2545815 | 2607047.15882084 | -61232.1588208424 |
| 84 | 2414007 | 2485273.88545575 | -71266.8854557467 |
| 85 | 2372578 | 2437808.7413712 | -65230.7413712018 |
| 86 | 2332664 | 2384168.75484005 | -51504.7548400532 |
| 87 | 2825328 | 2821467.76420095 | 3860.23579904716 |
| 88 | 2901478 | 2889637.59092882 | 11840.4090711791 |
| 89 | 3263955 | 3185779.93614688 | 78175.0638531158 |
| 90 | 3226738 | 3195577.68168522 | 31160.3183147833 |
| 91 | 3610786 | 3544389.23268649 | 66396.7673135055 |
| 92 | 3709274 | 3621537.1273098 | 87736.8726902008 |
| 93 | 3467185 | 3370343.06488727 | 96841.9351127334 |
| 94 | 3449646 | 3379285.73177963 | 70360.2682203706 |
| 95 | 2802951 | 2843653.94568082 | -40702.9456808241 |
| 96 | 2462530 | 2726015.38263977 | -263485.382639769 |
| 97 | 2490645 | 2595365.00556992 | -104720.005569919 |
| 98 | 2561520 | 2530951.00524081 | 30568.9947591918 |
| 99 | 3067554 | 3033076.42150959 | 34477.5784904128 |
| 100 | 3226951 | 3119019.1054544 | 107931.894545597 |
| 101 | 3546493 | 3491825.45676126 | 54667.5432387427 |
| 102 | 3492787 | 3467296.0415133 | 25490.9584867037 |
| 103 | 3952263 | 3831387.02429935 | 120875.975700646 |
| 104 | 3932072 | 3943770.94455325 | -11698.9445532514 |
| 105 | 3720284 | 3652570.67391917 | 67713.3260808326 |
| 106 | 3651555 | 3635050.14498788 | 16504.8550121151 |
| 107 | 2914972 | 3019079.27924997 | -104107.279249968 |
| 108 | 2713514 | 2760308.74496463 | -46794.7449646322 |
| 109 | 2703997 | 2807181.3605826 | -103184.3605826 |
| 110 | 2591373 | 2811886.96272288 | -220513.962722882 |
| 111 | 3163748 | 3203341.60031917 | -39593.6003191732 |
| 112 | 3355137 | 3293206.41000376 | 61930.5899962396 |
| 113 | 3613702 | 3618432.69872628 | -4730.698726275 |
| 114 | 3686773 | 3552496.56893362 | 134276.431066376 |
| 115 | 4098716 | 4013640.67285399 | 85075.3271460072 |
| 116 | 4063517 | 4042904.88784226 | 20612.1121577378 |
| 117 | 3551489 | 3806368.48233985 | -254879.482339846 |
| 118 | 3226663 | 3618215.64492266 | -391552.644922656 |
| 119 | 2656842 | 2758163.81327349 | -101321.813273489 |
| 120 | 2597484 | 2529632.27122286 | 67851.7287771399 |
| 121 | 2572399 | 2599418.28238829 | -27019.2823882941 |
| 122 | 2596631 | 2578948.58783512 | 17682.4121648753 |
| 123 | 3165225 | 3168780.94799446 | -3555.94799446175 |
| 124 | 3303145 | 3326165.99925051 | -23020.9992505121 |
| 125 | 3698247 | 3579560.95533607 | 118686.044663932 |
| 126 | 3668631 | 3639306.76828857 | 29324.2317114347 |
| 127 | 4130433 | 4028477.86277903 | 101955.137220966 |
| 128 | 4131400 | 4032708.97411007 | 98691.0258899312 |
| 129 | 3864358 | 3691855.86418736 | 172502.135812642 |
| 130 | 3721110 | 3626316.02862516 | 94793.9713748419 |
| 131 | 2892532 | 3131264.36296358 | -238732.362963584 |
| 132 | 2843451 | 2926653.70510682 | -83202.7051068153 |
| 133 | 2747502 | 2880682.71416582 | -133180.714165824 |
| 134 | 2668775 | 2835194.54150041 | -166419.541500409 |
| 135 | 3018602 | 3331687.39786911 | -313085.397869114 |
| 136 | 3013392 | 3340357.15085607 | -326965.150856074 |
| 137 | 3393657 | 3529065.22781504 | -135408.227815035 |
| 138 | 3544233 | 3429612.06769489 | 114620.932305109 |
| 139 | 4075832 | 3893788.82492871 | 182043.175071293 |
| 140 | 4032923 | 3932300.22463167 | 100622.775368327 |
| 141 | 3734509 | 3629648.24694839 | 104860.753051611 |
| 142 | 3761285 | 3494455.63330756 | 266829.366692444 |
| 143 | 2970090 | 2907886.02048794 | 62203.9795120582 |
| 144 | 2847849 | 2916958.33229988 | -69109.3322998765 |
| 145 | 2741680 | 2852030.88288173 | -110350.882881729 |
| 146 | 2830639 | 2799972.70251274 | 30666.2974872622 |
| 147 | 3257673 | 3310702.48462615 | -53029.4846261465 |
| 148 | 3480085 | 3429025.18673064 | 51059.8132693642 |
| 149 | 3843271 | 3884224.84366339 | -40953.8436633917 |
| 150 | 3796961 | 3953615.8746077 | -156654.874607701 |
| 151 | 4337767 | 4330188.27378895 | 7578.72621104959 |
| 152 | 4243630 | 4249243.28751828 | -5613.2875182759 |
| 153 | 3927202 | 3901072.36321711 | 26129.6367828879 |
| 154 | 3915296 | 3812482.69387428 | 102813.306125723 |
| 155 | 3087396 | 3048825.92549623 | 38570.0745037696 |
| 156 | 2963792 | 2980875.2483132 | -17083.2483131965 |
| 157 | 2955792 | 2918428.75785791 | 37363.2421420896 |
| 158 | 2829925 | 3003970.18907942 | -174045.189079424 |
| 159 | 3281195 | 3380522.40935952 | -99327.4093595166 |
| 160 | 3548011 | 3530723.14779221 | 17287.8522077855 |
| 161 | 4059648 | 3924229.59084838 | 135418.409151617 |
| 162 | 3941175 | 4014226.78891897 | -73051.7889189711 |
| 163 | 4528594 | 4511378.6480454 | 17215.351954597 |
| 164 | 4433151 | 4428084.44825353 | 5066.5517464662 |
| 165 | 4145737 | 4100760.92317425 | 44976.0768257529 |
| 166 | 4077132 | 4059414.09410461 | 17717.9058953896 |
| 167 | 3198519 | 3225084.55204992 | -26565.55204992 |
| 168 | 3078660 | 3099760.87577907 | -21100.8757790709 |
| 169 | 3028202 | 3063051.50961817 | -34849.5096181729 |
| 170 | 2858642 | 3009262.18840488 | -150620.188404884 |
| 171 | 3398954 | 3434117.04127045 | -35163.0412704502 |
| 172 | 3808883 | 3672090.2336083 | 136792.766391699 |
| 173 | 4175961 | 4178963.99013386 | -3002.99013386294 |
| 174 | 4227542 | 4101412.27075127 | 126129.729248726 |
| 175 | 4744616 | 4733584.54860338 | 11031.4513966208 |
| 176 | 4608012 | 4641370.96178403 | -33358.9617840275 |
| 177 | 4295049 | 4316994.58901948 | -21945.5890194783 |
| 178 | 4201144 | 4231836.03329936 | -30692.0332993604 |
| 179 | 3353276 | 3353388.43330278 | -112.433302779216 |
| 180 | 3286851 | 3242696.97932259 | 44154.0206774115 |
| 181 | 3169889 | 3228309.86245436 | -58420.8624543604 |
| 182 | 3051720 | 3105387.24794254 | -53667.2479425408 |
| 183 | 3695426 | 3632139.28434479 | 63286.715655209 |
| 184 | 3905501 | 4001258.83671391 | -95757.8367139101 |
| 185 | 4296458 | 4333089.10324107 | -36631.1032410692 |
| 186 | 4246247 | 4305766.93491229 | -59519.9349122914 |
| 187 | 4921849 | 4796429.97121594 | 125419.028784057 |
| 188 | 4821446 | 4733082.95301148 | 88363.0469885198 |
| 189 | 4425064 | 4469089.88258393 | -44025.882583933 |
| 190 | 4379099 | 4369601.00864343 | 9497.991356574 |
| 191 | 3472889 | 3524652.06162657 | -51763.0616265675 |
| 192 | 3359160 | 3413178.12483008 | -54018.1248300793 |
| 193 | 3200944 | 3302862.81932709 | -101918.819327086 |
| 194 | 3153170 | 3162829.37764493 | -9659.37764492538 |
| 195 | 3741498 | 3768482.02143362 | -26984.0214336156 |
| 196 | 3918719 | 4016655.36442926 | -97936.3644292615 |
| 197 | 4403449 | 4377415.18057431 | 26033.8194256863 |
| 198 | 4400407 | 4366630.06497003 | 33776.9350299668 |
| 199 | 4847473 | 4992694.65127096 | -145221.651270959 |
| 200 | 4716136 | 4789182.00773232 | -73046.0077323243 |
| 201 | 4297440 | 4385809.39001441 | -88369.3900144054 |
| 202 | 4272253 | 4293498.85907862 | -21245.8590786234 |
| 203 | 3271834 | 3403770.25248093 | -131936.252480931 |
| 204 | 3168388 | 3255186.16547052 | -86798.165470521 |
| 205 | 2911748 | 3105935.48216252 | -194187.482162516 |
| 206 | 2720999 | 2971171.74334252 | -250172.74334252 |
| 207 | 3199918 | 3460155.63510704 | -260237.635107037 |
| 208 | 3672623 | 3567791.82686171 | 104831.173138295 |
| 209 | 3892013 | 4082228.28445515 | -190215.284455147 |
| 210 | 3850845 | 3978340.06493237 | -127495.06493237 |
| 211 | 4532467 | 4441510.92498526 | 90956.0750147449 |
| 212 | 4484739 | 4380466.08762244 | 104272.912377561 |
| 213 | 4014972 | 4048896.45694545 | -33924.4569454491 |
| 214 | 3983758 | 4014964.32569624 | -31206.325696242 |
| 215 | 3158459 | 3064778.58138835 | 93680.4186116485 |
| 216 | 3100569 | 3040248.21941599 | 60320.7805840084 |
| 217 | 2935404 | 2902683.43038873 | 32720.5696112686 |
| 218 | 2855719 | 2841403.50880774 | 14315.4911922636 |
| 219 | 3465611 | 3443958.49833511 | 21652.5016648918 |
| 220 | 3006985 | 3862719.79156959 | -855734.791569592 |
| 221 | 4095110 | 3796962.88418351 | 298147.11581649 |
| 222 | 4104793 | 3943901.88026486 | 160891.119735138 |
| 223 | 4730788 | 4646951.47685622 | 83836.5231437832 |
| 224 | 4642726 | 4589448.26947324 | 53277.7305267649 |
| 225 | 4246919 | 4165098.04612597 | 81820.9538740302 |
| 226 | 4308117 | 4184469.68333801 | 123647.316661985 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 227 | 3366927.72946086 | 3145137.63119803 | 3588717.82772369 |
| 228 | 3283494.20087414 | 3040405.29934371 | 3526583.10240458 |
| 229 | 3104906.14940421 | 2842239.85844338 | 3367572.44036503 |
| 230 | 3019636.7330363 | 2738754.29006957 | 3300519.17600302 |
| 231 | 3619480.25008301 | 3321493.14780038 | 3917467.35236563 |
| 232 | 3584735.2209401 | 3270573.35265142 | 3898897.08922879 |
| 233 | 4486547.67258785 | 4157003.97920794 | 4816091.36596777 |
| 234 | 4430298.09470469 | 4086059.20642169 | 4774536.98298769 |
| 235 | 5022189.21815084 | 4663857.27906899 | 5380521.15723269 |
| 236 | 4911615.9827567 | 4539724.67481041 | 5283507.29070298 |
| 237 | 4477800.30095632 | 4092826.91059558 | 4862773.69131706 |
| 238 | 4481619.3847397 | 4083994.08669432 | 4879244.68278508 |
