| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 6827 | 6827 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6178 | 6235.72999270304 | -192.914148908771 | -57.7299927030367 | -0.574778092098935 |
| 3 | 7084 | 6955.50691953209 | 334.606296533422 | 128.493080467913 | 0.9538944681889 |
| 4 | 8162 | 8120.63402639137 | 826.267395191327 | 41.3659736086331 | 0.823301541277965 |
| 5 | 8462 | 8573.66793402803 | 606.739517911771 | -111.667934028034 | -0.376797232327223 |
| 6 | 9644 | 9598.81968469442 | 853.336395636753 | 45.180315305582 | 0.425320804035137 |
| 7 | 10466 | 10503.9755014856 | 883.903917138369 | -37.9755014856386 | 0.052732264577415 |
| 8 | 10748 | 10852.2204843756 | 567.889994483986 | -104.220484375591 | -0.545153212126783 |
| 9 | 9963 | 10145.319519337 | -184.186556616909 | -182.31951933696 | -1.29739964949048 |
| 10 | 8194 | 8387.24798659343 | -1112.73487158904 | -193.247986593436 | -1.60182984821943 |
| 11 | 6848 | 6867.33507380275 | -1352.96202904091 | -19.3350738027491 | -0.414413629970516 |
| 12 | 7027 | 6852.67849009587 | -563.383141181918 | 174.321509904132 | 1.36209519806918 |
| 13 | 7269 | 6784.04251618974 | -277.873452943877 | 484.957483810257 | 0.542688179580451 |
| 14 | 6775 | 6897.39771992526 | -65.4262019615746 | -122.397719925257 | 0.344507876996103 |
| 15 | 7819 | 7688.12542307039 | 412.435112818936 | 130.874576929615 | 0.841018598885998 |
| 16 | 8371 | 8255.31470298329 | 501.252960143033 | 115.685297016715 | 0.151923149837434 |
| 17 | 9069 | 9181.87973408127 | 744.146118788751 | -112.879734081271 | 0.41642292054081 |
| 18 | 10248 | 10220.8450518377 | 912.56111853818 | 27.1549481622531 | 0.290349657686622 |
| 19 | 11030 | 11093.7282858134 | 889.86682994477 | -63.7282858134036 | -0.039149949425144 |
| 20 | 10882 | 11038.4993853859 | 349.139747826682 | -156.499385385912 | -0.932800726657837 |
| 21 | 10333 | 10409.4326964557 | -210.544409122109 | -76.4326964556916 | -0.96550732115794 |
| 22 | 9109 | 9296.553310914 | -726.87349256115 | -187.553310913991 | -0.890734970516916 |
| 23 | 7685 | 7947.81169549259 | -1082.59953669638 | -262.811695492587 | -0.6136517214444 |
| 24 | 7602 | 7366.71647630799 | -796.580466493244 | 235.283523692011 | 0.494508075257402 |
| 25 | 8350 | 7702.49561818632 | -149.710127787967 | 647.50438181368 | 1.14589954339696 |
| 26 | 7829 | 8046.4646283109 | 125.092140363575 | -217.464628310895 | 0.464231627684668 |
| 27 | 8829 | 8642.0418033827 | 386.404227511379 | 186.958196617306 | 0.455121301756072 |
| 28 | 9948 | 9792.20445302027 | 819.166096856033 | 155.79554697973 | 0.746459162968399 |
| 29 | 10638 | 10832.5143319813 | 944.295975242479 | -194.514331981268 | 0.214681101112405 |
| 30 | 11253 | 11374.4995848404 | 716.934734517116 | -121.499584840365 | -0.391714297428987 |
| 31 | 11424 | 11481.5397378824 | 371.86315877725 | -57.5397378824455 | -0.595275894478062 |
| 32 | 11391 | 11464.5845864368 | 151.722906867989 | -73.584586436779 | -0.379759343895379 |
| 33 | 10665 | 10719.4914553813 | -356.136473170424 | -54.4914553812788 | -0.876112289432719 |
| 34 | 9396 | 9536.19361396675 | -824.512272252149 | -140.193613966747 | -0.808019869562062 |
| 35 | 7775 | 8154.81760783177 | -1139.49111701944 | -379.817607831766 | -0.543386837795194 |
| 36 | 7933 | 7726.71773643306 | -737.89676746733 | 206.282263566936 | 0.69535544626191 |
| 37 | 8186 | 7518.40456721236 | -437.948572242858 | 667.595432787638 | 0.522227987867013 |
| 38 | 7444 | 7649.99974257391 | -119.630473014432 | -205.999742573913 | 0.54388137147883 |
| 39 | 8484 | 8335.6184067746 | 327.981860105382 | 148.381593225406 | 0.775645333606321 |
| 40 | 9864 | 9625.77465183575 | 869.502747637474 | 238.225348164254 | 0.936528835896411 |
| 41 | 10252 | 10436.6615840814 | 836.482923623066 | -184.661584081443 | -0.0567459665672158 |
| 42 | 12282 | 12171.6230940458 | 1341.74841778163 | 110.376905954233 | 0.870137073292612 |
| 43 | 11637 | 11982.5343575657 | 480.288166082358 | -345.534357565677 | -1.48593000090446 |
| 44 | 11577 | 11622.5262405142 | 7.00504257298383 | -45.5262405141669 | -0.816457437310893 |
| 45 | 12417 | 12164.0706528641 | 308.168244824137 | 252.929347135893 | 0.519541857456758 |
| 46 | 9637 | 10069.1894102792 | -1045.30889673125 | -432.189410279201 | -2.33487215087513 |
| 47 | 8094 | 8594.35064617398 | -1286.92486647949 | -500.350646173982 | -0.41694328082703 |
| 48 | 9280 | 8831.65222902209 | -430.054602642194 | 448.347770977907 | 1.48341156420906 |
| 49 | 8334 | 7865.6264998204 | -732.023820870034 | 468.373500179595 | -0.522778199148365 |
| 50 | 7899 | 8069.0628060525 | -209.17389717089 | -170.062806052496 | 0.897111139040052 |
| 51 | 9994 | 9722.77828621286 | 827.291026457948 | 271.221713787135 | 1.7920509846485 |
| 52 | 10078 | 10005.0217870332 | 521.710752652147 | 72.978212966824 | -0.528686619674509 |
| 53 | 10801 | 11109.9716738589 | 849.32193239081 | -308.971673858924 | 0.563864053811946 |
| 54 | 12950 | 12477.3001517834 | 1139.8358493214 | 472.699848216577 | 0.500265113333087 |
| 55 | 12222 | 12657.3485216335 | 601.458939363645 | -435.348521633458 | -0.928488890433205 |
| 56 | 12246 | 12553.8293004073 | 205.678347481354 | -307.829300407298 | -0.68275734858204 |
| 57 | 13281 | 12515.5878280827 | 68.6935788160723 | 765.412171917334 | -0.236313171214965 |
| 58 | 10366 | 10964.4377065568 | -840.614988979107 | -598.437706556776 | -1.56863612058181 |
| 59 | 8730 | 9565.77647272977 | -1153.54148960164 | -835.776472729768 | -0.540152347530339 |
| 60 | 9614 | 8888.03648756044 | -886.687745158945 | 725.963512439559 | 0.461662698314086 |
| 61 | 8639 | 8306.69097774468 | -715.229886097319 | 332.309022255321 | 0.296184992372512 |
| 62 | 8772 | 9064.77622567783 | 107.659102020865 | -292.77622567783 | 1.41464504595703 |
| 63 | 10894 | 10315.1180733201 | 743.712778570766 | 578.88192667987 | 1.09861881294545 |
| 64 | 10455 | 10636.6469828813 | 507.56229035795 | -181.646982881307 | -0.408443907660823 |
| 65 | 11179 | 11563.6989309542 | 742.703207826479 | -384.698930954201 | 0.405145219549018 |
| 66 | 10588 | 10333.1973317282 | -362.048224938464 | 254.802668271792 | -1.90266618033131 |
| 67 | 10794 | 10934.7550628115 | 177.353239211776 | -140.755062811548 | 0.93010641655596 |
| 68 | 12770 | 12772.6944403397 | 1107.52767922141 | -2.69444033964983 | 1.60458917420967 |
| 69 | 13812 | 12882.6239912593 | 548.552834795247 | 929.376008740682 | -0.964282326734982 |
| 70 | 10857 | 11596.4557278404 | -479.027397924592 | -739.455727840367 | -1.7727526210467 |
| 71 | 9290 | 10281.9989678473 | -946.58665763173 | -991.998967847328 | -0.807208833157217 |
| 72 | 10925 | 10077.6234113837 | -530.981463486219 | 847.37658861628 | 0.718515435366873 |
| 73 | 9491 | 9508.84514698945 | -552.157863010545 | -17.8451469894512 | -0.0365463777996079 |
| 74 | 8919 | 9392.1390125585 | -309.128009657809 | -473.139012558503 | 0.418228980365114 |
| 75 | 11607 | 10680.2984699094 | 580.099475460884 | 926.701530090637 | 1.53513980462796 |
| 76 | 8852 | 9446.29732329504 | -433.122713724884 | -594.29732329504 | -1.75172504389035 |
| 77 | 12537 | 11898.7104300521 | 1181.78528971975 | 638.289569947868 | 2.78440659676266 |
| 78 | 14759 | 14556.4827550545 | 2007.17020187189 | 202.517244945452 | 1.42187859993131 |
| 79 | 13667 | 14626.1060407251 | 924.119556382343 | -959.106040725063 | -1.86731902150251 |
| 80 | 13731 | 13840.9570360208 | -31.7421395023314 | -109.957036020751 | -1.64881360198429 |
| 81 | 15110 | 13765.2139182815 | -56.3544168366233 | 1344.78608171852 | -0.0424583215289912 |
| 82 | 12185 | 12882.0810928955 | -518.647147586901 | -697.081092895548 | -0.797597968857966 |
| 83 | 10645 | 11838.5683251325 | -812.006832985063 | -1193.56832513248 | -0.506501872990439 |
| 84 | 12161 | 11209.6174664803 | -709.627728812156 | 951.382533519675 | 0.176899126314597 |
| 85 | 10840 | 10860.0449003649 | -508.222056494953 | -20.04490036491 | 0.347430180389698 |
| 86 | 10436 | 11042.1974075085 | -123.175698081157 | -606.197407508468 | 0.663032155516951 |
| 87 | 13589 | 12040.5488640944 | 501.160679015428 | 1548.45113590556 | 1.07755125086267 |
| 88 | 13402 | 14376.8235353575 | 1525.06359377105 | -974.823535357506 | 1.76952408971205 |
| 89 | 13103 | 13355.2993731159 | 101.610022826094 | -252.299373115925 | -2.45536278085661 |
| 90 | 14933 | 14172.9510583809 | 501.657289987117 | 760.048941619062 | 0.689338579794586 |
| 91 | 14147 | 14779.8046642828 | 560.398875480505 | -632.804664282826 | 0.101271198989018 |
| 92 | 14057 | 14355.8809274252 | 10.6449918016082 | -298.880927425212 | -0.948236869005214 |
| 93 | 16234 | 14626.3368021679 | 155.774767826406 | 1607.66319783209 | 0.25036269421458 |
| 94 | 12389 | 13220.2354483861 | -716.452101621121 | -831.235448386101 | -1.50499023884941 |
| 95 | 11595 | 12705.962709745 | -603.560446666479 | -1110.962709745 | 0.194914981901618 |
| 96 | 12772 | 11890.367218367 | -722.030503926116 | 881.632781632989 | -0.20461625961283 |
