| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 12008 | 12008 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 9169 | 9404.58992051732 | -140.607835773963 | -235.589920517318 | -3.75533775044017 |
| 3 | 8788 | 8928.83207690168 | -147.265468693883 | -140.832076901677 | -0.780937742135369 |
| 4 | 8417 | 8578.45048988622 | -148.949751261336 | -161.450489886216 | -0.479317650281002 |
| 5 | 8247 | 8388.56927588887 | -149.31051856543 | -141.569275888874 | -0.0964621408871046 |
| 6 | 8197 | 8326.4781098058 | -148.40397148015 | -129.478109805804 | 0.20538009001759 |
| 7 | 8236 | 8356.97176789575 | -146.335974296419 | -120.971767895747 | 0.420967960154393 |
| 8 | 8253 | 8380.11087276641 | -144.205402405209 | -127.11087276641 | 0.398526610541096 |
| 9 | 7733 | 7938.23508340784 | -148.239371225945 | -205.235083407842 | -0.69951400785533 |
| 10 | 8366 | 8392.2606480385 | -139.500743555486 | -26.2606480384968 | 1.4143681646903 |
| 11 | 8626 | 8724.44045931879 | -132.218050587166 | -98.4404593187923 | 1.10698798654584 |
| 12 | 8863 | 8967.93056577965 | -126.078790875428 | -104.930565779652 | 0.881194822575202 |
| 13 | 10102 | 8669.75688663504 | -122.142131330821 | 1432.24311336496 | -0.468222506241583 |
| 14 | 8463 | 8631.85939389205 | -119.587314046379 | -168.859393892047 | 0.176288256464413 |
| 15 | 9114 | 9072.83697744199 | -104.335789439557 | 41.1630225580097 | 1.27989709942503 |
| 16 | 8563 | 8775.16208144718 | -108.208060577637 | -212.162081447177 | -0.451966648484196 |
| 17 | 8872 | 8925.05083542719 | -103.402565277897 | -53.0508354271873 | 0.60274942500715 |
| 18 | 8301 | 8522.55687347386 | -109.218611904458 | -221.556873473865 | -0.697913368094057 |
| 19 | 8301 | 8406.01637913817 | -109.368082389169 | -105.016379138175 | -0.0170751279988551 |
| 20 | 8278 | 8314.87251958469 | -108.981828913154 | -36.8725195846935 | 0.042477831065853 |
| 21 | 7736 | 8032.74869939394 | -112.774523459336 | -296.748699393942 | -0.403376616860836 |
| 22 | 7973 | 8006.71479373614 | -110.806837000917 | -33.7147937361371 | 0.202023935141918 |
| 23 | 8268 | 8309.01655487128 | -101.202860479434 | -41.016554871275 | 0.961811316044191 |
| 24 | 9476 | 9311.4543171554 | -77.9846309267205 | 164.545682844601 | 2.56517639833191 |
| 25 | 11100 | 9656.79378600488 | -72.8984931548011 | 1443.20621399512 | 1.03671562667262 |
| 26 | 8962 | 9338.5904576821 | -80.0310549467005 | -376.590457682102 | -0.546724627839685 |
| 27 | 9173 | 9131.73718708735 | -83.9700206489967 | 41.2628129126512 | -0.288034531982271 |
| 28 | 8738 | 9015.48492852488 | -84.8660418224344 | -277.484928524881 | -0.0749076003432717 |
| 29 | 8459 | 8560.30399168496 | -94.5511050883786 | -101.303991684964 | -0.859584740316093 |
| 30 | 8078 | 8324.31892433705 | -98.258076100081 | -246.318924337049 | -0.328020745492447 |
| 31 | 8411 | 8453.34899119765 | -92.181123024876 | -42.3489911976525 | 0.526932766712112 |
| 32 | 8291 | 8312.94140031545 | -93.4955826925061 | -21.9414003154462 | -0.111774933286065 |
| 33 | 7810 | 8129.01676315895 | -96.0039193511587 | -319.016763158955 | -0.209555850108468 |
| 34 | 8616 | 8574.78121482456 | -80.7481963075115 | 41.2187851754445 | 1.25538740610826 |
| 35 | 8312 | 8587.4331563838 | -78.1308826375517 | -275.433156383798 | 0.216226272772258 |
| 36 | 9692 | 9388.65451386808 | -55.0474103478375 | 303.345486131922 | 2.03685484161856 |
| 37 | 9911 | 8660.13037455817 | -71.3289604819605 | 1250.86962544183 | -1.59569228262834 |
| 38 | 8915 | 9114.79748886658 | -55.1867203262999 | -199.797488866575 | 1.19501533185399 |
| 39 | 9452 | 9349.94632687914 | -45.6980705805726 | 102.053673120863 | 0.660109278525954 |
| 40 | 9112 | 9316.26126704332 | -45.3208208758174 | -204.261267043322 | 0.0277446426363632 |
| 41 | 8472 | 8698.81793760159 | -62.639282105303 | -226.817937601586 | -1.32343748023698 |
| 42 | 8230 | 8515.28960551872 | -66.2680366231684 | -285.289605518722 | -0.279390220703286 |
| 43 | 8384 | 8394.95835946405 | -67.9012965077778 | -10.9583594640465 | -0.124909212702186 |
| 44 | 8625 | 8544.54646871384 | -61.2664129168962 | 80.4535312861612 | 0.502467478756729 |
| 45 | 8221 | 8609.1504741046 | -57.3916964774123 | -388.150474104603 | 0.290812041238515 |
| 46 | 8649 | 8620.07124423244 | -55.2798947601332 | 28.9287557675617 | 0.157801369394816 |
| 47 | 8625 | 8967.03769878444 | -42.9778265554834 | -342.037698784441 | 0.928120443861645 |
| 48 | 10443 | 9792.78487556212 | -17.2576582915003 | 650.215124437884 | 2.0087935102961 |
| 49 | 10357 | 9395.68870612137 | -28.3802226045018 | 961.311293878629 | -0.887916183463132 |
| 50 | 8586 | 8962.44703450387 | -41.3380442788073 | -376.447034503866 | -0.926173758949898 |
| 51 | 8892 | 8801.82811056564 | -45.3082396785364 | 90.1718894343657 | -0.271873847543805 |
| 52 | 8329 | 8475.59543681099 | -54.5384342419026 | -146.595436810988 | -0.647150228085046 |
| 53 | 8101 | 8310.13189236935 | -58.1089592862142 | -209.131892369353 | -0.256114983798845 |
| 54 | 7922 | 8198.43820019912 | -59.8188059161976 | -276.438200199124 | -0.123621227599398 |
| 55 | 8120 | 8159.81981513054 | -59.141747389824 | -39.8198151305416 | 0.04889291482937 |
| 56 | 7838 | 7843.45446546159 | -67.3927308725585 | -5.45446546159193 | -0.593236499448212 |
| 57 | 7735 | 8049.31676773443 | -58.5923799058783 | -314.31676773443 | 0.630252281897268 |
| 58 | 8406 | 8389.75896206158 | -45.7432814669296 | 16.2410379384183 | 0.920004970824469 |
| 59 | 8209 | 8676.84734274632 | -35.1196117336171 | -467.847342746318 | 0.766681700522983 |
| 60 | 9451 | 8719.13984807108 | -32.6854319656265 | 731.860151928921 | 0.178816210165611 |
| 61 | 10041 | 8928.67339607925 | -25.0526561219807 | 1112.32660392075 | 0.56267564469825 |
| 62 | 9411 | 9586.13785366125 | -2.70641924734686 | -175.137853661252 | 1.56576897726005 |
| 63 | 10405 | 10140.503880185 | 15.9387020049404 | 264.496119815049 | 1.27263450126142 |
| 64 | 8467 | 8958.06390170706 | -24.0349175520583 | -491.063901707064 | -2.75707683771024 |
| 65 | 8464 | 8688.09782082898 | -32.1497795142561 | -224.09782082898 | -0.567238341496324 |
| 66 | 8102 | 8419.16169698964 | -39.9123464422492 | -317.161696989636 | -0.545818697404003 |
| 67 | 7627 | 7756.69938337103 | -60.2998138195468 | -129.699383371035 | -1.43442255596296 |
| 68 | 7513 | 7572.68958160782 | -64.3574265174321 | -59.6895816078186 | -0.285039037842726 |
| 69 | 7510 | 7808.68582823018 | -54.4927611094092 | -298.68582823018 | 0.692027187157649 |
| 70 | 8291 | 8216.4410224546 | -39.3325442668676 | 74.5589775454041 | 1.06450044434317 |
| 71 | 8064 | 8482.0128312191 | -29.3902676449137 | -418.012831219097 | 0.701832666604542 |
| 72 | 9383 | 8677.93220905873 | -22.0923588761677 | 705.067790941269 | 0.520075249874582 |
| 73 | 9706 | 8756.61315745104 | -18.81634778756 | 949.386842548958 | 0.233337630627539 |
| 74 | 8579 | 8841.56692920431 | -15.3815080756876 | -262.566929204312 | 0.238369084822048 |
| 75 | 9474 | 8930.25889025792 | -11.8949612342796 | 543.74110974208 | 0.238175230028662 |
| 76 | 8318 | 8798.98843415873 | -15.8928826267144 | -480.988434158735 | -0.274476156278953 |
| 77 | 8213 | 8458.0433802691 | -26.7190109955502 | -245.043380269105 | -0.749248833457153 |
| 78 | 8059 | 8260.89265218389 | -32.371292101145 | -201.892652183885 | -0.392716769358374 |
| 79 | 9111 | 8987.62128858633 | -7.23207525625505 | 123.378711413673 | 1.74827375624921 |
| 80 | 7708 | 8106.87825768887 | -36.1664699410537 | -398.878257688866 | -2.01151434711281 |
| 81 | 7680 | 8053.24186343802 | -36.7452178652916 | -373.241863438017 | -0.0402234377402611 |
| 82 | 8014 | 8007.17156689485 | -37.0536825523275 | 6.82843310514757 | -0.021459255816038 |
| 83 | 8007 | 8361.94826822558 | -24.1373573984932 | -354.948268225583 | 0.901653619266442 |
| 84 | 8718 | 8114.18180564776 | -31.4877741892893 | 603.818194352239 | -0.51592112143431 |
| 85 | 9486 | 8452.18340731434 | -19.3077286252956 | 1033.81659268566 | 0.853955893684807 |
| 86 | 9113 | 9201.23291688146 | 6.25157153243611 | -88.2329168814578 | 1.76612859822604 |
| 87 | 9025 | 8639.98477225346 | -12.7501275314844 | 385.015227746539 | -1.30039384344517 |
| 88 | 8476 | 8818.00696614439 | -6.35936508523394 | -342.006966144392 | 0.438520858161605 |
| 89 | 7952 | 8330.31875347575 | -22.4394905539869 | -378.318753475748 | -1.10898149929602 |
| 90 | 7759 | 8139.66294659527 | -28.0446070005128 | -380.662946595266 | -0.387541491277317 |
| 91 | 7835 | 7637.86296409845 | -43.8108323158303 | 197.137035901553 | -1.09087317449153 |
| 92 | 7600 | 7884.6524446643 | -34.1429100244401 | -284.652444664304 | 0.668956589558895 |
| 93 | 7651 | 7991.58849115058 | -29.4509998730536 | -340.588491150583 | 0.324669200456162 |
| 94 | 8319 | 8297.08494366783 | -18.3248514562943 | 21.9150563321658 | 0.770466822583259 |
| 95 | 8812 | 8951.11709309264 | 3.96421592359339 | -139.117093092644 | 1.54702066370602 |
| 96 | 8630 | 8334.2151827741 | -16.593253115132 | 295.784817225904 | -1.43175920496976 |
