Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.99994898197325 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 6.13 | 6.11 | 0.0199999999999996 |
3 | 6.15 | 6.12999897963947 | 0.0200010203605352 |
4 | 6.15 | 6.14999897958741 | 1.02041259175678e-06 |
5 | 6.16 | 6.14999999994794 | 0.0100000000520595 |
6 | 6.18 | 6.15999948981973 | 0.02000051018027 |
7 | 6.21 | 6.17999897961344 | 0.0300010203865639 |
8 | 6.22 | 6.20999846940714 | 0.0100015305928602 |
9 | 6.23 | 6.21999948974164 | 0.0100005102583562 |
10 | 6.26 | 6.2299994897937 | 0.0300005102062997 |
11 | 6.28 | 6.25999846943317 | 0.0200015305668328 |
12 | 6.28 | 6.27999897956138 | 1.02043862160173e-06 |
13 | 6.29 | 6.27999999994794 | 0.0100000000520604 |
14 | 6.32 | 6.28999948981973 | 0.0300005101802707 |
15 | 6.36 | 6.31999846943317 | 0.0400015305668306 |
16 | 6.37 | 6.35999795920084 | 0.0100020407991561 |
17 | 6.38 | 6.36999948971561 | 0.0100005102843852 |
18 | 6.38 | 6.3799994897937 | 5.10206301207461e-07 |
19 | 6.4 | 6.37999999997397 | 0.0200000000260303 |
20 | 6.41 | 6.39999897963946 | 0.0100010203605363 |
21 | 6.42 | 6.40999948976768 | 0.0100005102323237 |
22 | 6.43 | 6.4199994897937 | 0.0100005102062983 |
23 | 6.44 | 6.4299994897937 | 0.0100005102062983 |
24 | 6.47 | 6.4399994897937 | 0.030000510206297 |
25 | 6.47 | 6.46999846943317 | 1.53056683238617e-06 |
26 | 6.48 | 6.46999999992191 | 0.0100000000780875 |
27 | 6.51 | 6.47999948981973 | 0.0300005101802707 |
28 | 6.54 | 6.50999846943317 | 0.0300015305668309 |
29 | 6.56 | 6.53999846938111 | 0.020001530618889 |
30 | 6.57 | 6.55999897956138 | 0.0100010204386249 |
31 | 6.6 | 6.56999948976767 | 0.0300005102323277 |
32 | 6.62 | 6.59999846943317 | 0.0200015305668337 |
33 | 6.65 | 6.61999897956138 | 0.0300010204386219 |
34 | 6.71 | 6.64999846940714 | 0.0600015305928627 |
35 | 6.76 | 6.7099969388403 | 0.0500030611596927 |
36 | 6.78 | 6.75999744894249 | 0.0200025510575124 |
37 | 6.8 | 6.77999897950932 | 0.0200010204906844 |
38 | 6.83 | 6.7999989795874 | 0.0300010204125991 |
39 | 6.86 | 6.82999846940714 | 0.0300015305928625 |
40 | 6.86 | 6.85999846938111 | 1.53061889029971e-06 |
41 | 6.87 | 6.85999999992191 | 0.0100000000780893 |
42 | 6.88 | 6.86999948981973 | 0.0100005101802711 |
43 | 6.9 | 6.8799994897937 | 0.0200005102062963 |
44 | 6.92 | 6.89999897961344 | 0.0200010203865642 |
45 | 6.93 | 6.9199989795874 | 0.0100010204125933 |
46 | 6.94 | 6.92999948976767 | 0.0100005102323273 |
47 | 6.96 | 6.9399994897937 | 0.0200005102062981 |
48 | 6.98 | 6.95999897961344 | 0.020001020386565 |
49 | 6.99 | 6.97999897958741 | 0.0100010204125933 |
50 | 7.01 | 6.98999948976767 | 0.0200005102323262 |
51 | 7.06 | 7.00999897961343 | 0.0500010203865662 |
52 | 7.07 | 7.0599974490466 | 0.0100025509533967 |
53 | 7.08 | 7.06999948968959 | 0.0100005103104115 |
54 | 7.08 | 7.0799994897937 | 5.10206302095639e-07 |
55 | 7.1 | 7.07999999997397 | 0.0200000000260294 |
56 | 7.11 | 7.09999897963946 | 0.0100010203605372 |
57 | 7.22 | 7.10999948976768 | 0.110000510232323 |
58 | 7.24 | 7.21999438799103 | 0.0200056120089744 |
59 | 7.25 | 7.23999897935315 | 0.0100010206468486 |
60 | 7.26 | 7.24999948976766 | 0.0100005102323388 |
61 | 7.27 | 7.2599994897937 | 0.0100005102062983 |
62 | 7.3 | 7.2699994897937 | 0.0300005102062979 |
63 | 7.32 | 7.29999846943317 | 0.0200015305668328 |
64 | 7.34 | 7.31999897956138 | 0.0200010204386212 |
65 | 7.35 | 7.3399989795874 | 0.010001020412596 |
66 | 7.36 | 7.34999948976767 | 0.0100005102323273 |
67 | 7.39 | 7.3599994897937 | 0.0300005102062979 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
68 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.35740451474196 | 7.42259242412437 |
69 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.34390483247569 | 7.43609210639065 |
70 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.33354600399964 | 7.4464509348667 |
71 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.32481305435372 | 7.45518388451261 |
72 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.31711914572174 | 7.4628777931446 |
73 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.31016330606394 | 7.46983363280239 |
74 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.30376674211806 | 7.47623019674827 |
75 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.29781295928487 | 7.48218397958146 |
76 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.29222103969165 | 7.48777589917469 |
77 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.28693206728187 | 7.49306487158447 |
78 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.28190156504655 | 7.49809537381978 |
79 | 7.38999846943317 | 7.27709497868322 | 7.50290196018312 |