Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 1.4 | 1.39810060833617 | 0.0062404445696852 | 0.00187165409769197 | 0.877106517928616 |
3 | 1.4 | 1.39814326497824 | 0.00373584813704572 | 0.00186545958310043 | -0.193295709474642 |
4 | 1.43 | 1.42811866146573 | 0.0152440042484616 | 0.00184643760728967 | 0.796606457082359 |
5 | 1.42 | 1.41826944436577 | 0.00396657200734336 | 0.00176339960423482 | -0.756439591766377 |
6 | 1.44 | 1.43810660147358 | 0.0111544120778698 | 0.00187271858243866 | 0.477602632450304 |
7 | 1.44 | 1.43822364421203 | 0.0061427887795121 | 0.00179072247277258 | -0.332071499982514 |
8 | 1.44 | 1.43818574952614 | 0.00333386446742131 | 0.00182229409934262 | -0.185965794735244 |
9 | 1.42 | 1.41824592643673 | -0.00724693724376349 | 0.00178436306799304 | -0.700333472737808 |
10 | 1.41 | 1.4081603915726 | -0.0085376219340731 | 0.0018433029029807 | -0.0854230046319552 |
11 | 1.39 | 1.38820435439655 | -0.0137298158716166 | 0.00181050740345335 | -0.343634072969069 |
12 | 1.41 | 1.40803731198684 | 0.00153237671671515 | 0.00191900286222345 | 1.01008859352371 |
13 | 1.42 | 1.43249607913962 | 0.011644716846645 | -0.0125250100802395 | 0.784009408038322 |
14 | 1.44 | 1.43890903485399 | 0.00949127170036387 | 0.001095391264568 | -0.128209897618626 |
15 | 1.43 | 1.42916949777998 | 0.000707821783695738 | 0.000855220785696509 | -0.575001354104742 |
16 | 1.44 | 1.43870802392494 | 0.00472422172374919 | 0.00128057779111886 | 0.264723820090549 |
17 | 1.41 | 1.40925008899152 | -0.0108039541303125 | 0.000794150879397316 | -1.02651835615028 |
18 | 1.43 | 1.42862317520378 | 0.00290271914809977 | 0.00133773370125192 | 0.90683304623529 |
19 | 1.44 | 1.43896580087109 | 0.00628218079455388 | 0.00102455803372399 | 0.223637982659693 |
20 | 1.5 | 1.49857594213632 | 0.0305073257821082 | 0.00135494089072693 | 1.6032266088256 |
21 | 1.59 | 1.58871292037983 | 0.0575965192591262 | 0.00120978912331926 | 1.79280740334231 |
22 | 1.64 | 1.63897866028071 | 0.0542661084536985 | 0.00103084207552609 | -0.220413429329969 |
23 | 1.69 | 1.68904258047687 | 0.052356966920147 | 0.000962866718529406 | -0.126351201764327 |
24 | 1.8 | 1.79857865888488 | 0.0783322157808602 | 0.0013472283424526 | 1.71910055039755 |
25 | 1.88 | 1.88972236242307 | 0.0840736599431202 | -0.00973875468725549 | 0.410637821980415 |
26 | 1.96 | 1.95918848912553 | 0.0778347074824905 | 0.000826263427903162 | -0.389916692763692 |
27 | 2.04 | 2.03964601574278 | 0.0790289466643913 | 0.000350612839697591 | 0.0785509619015399 |
28 | 2.05 | 2.0493301595493 | 0.0475283950350505 | 0.000759108474520307 | -2.07878062222047 |
29 | 2.06 | 2.05982980684975 | 0.030721629291771 | 0.000217954736883625 | -1.11146449814314 |
30 | 2.04 | 2.03920057501844 | 0.00741659040723686 | 0.000865699654678086 | -1.54203697001879 |
31 | 2.04 | 2.03936548652399 | 0.0041253711595848 | 0.000643874908598639 | -0.217805851950712 |
32 | 2.05 | 2.04919400153176 | 0.00671390143696533 | 0.000798635298144464 | 0.171311344493377 |
33 | 2.01 | 2.00940473778957 | -0.0143935685021772 | 0.000655304258331109 | -1.39693123078028 |
34 | 2.05 | 2.04856337439755 | 0.00991394512279794 | 0.00136748037836814 | 1.60872265912755 |
35 | 2.01 | 2.01007375484606 | -0.0120574878161765 | -1.125466877386e-05 | -1.45411949774396 |
36 | 2.03 | 2.0286557461145 | 0.00184779545993264 | 0.00130469922342128 | 0.920290235363531 |
37 | 2.02 | 2.02893531097386 | 0.00114192412187991 | -0.00893330017833241 | -0.0491389829219518 |
38 | 2 | 1.99978348136717 | -0.0120158645650192 | 0.000249432314937263 | -0.837748590649516 |
39 | 1.98 | 1.9794149060883 | -0.0158115504076911 | 0.000595812800112297 | -0.250266487575583 |
40 | 1.99 | 1.98910775056883 | -0.00423747100696744 | 0.000859519074539286 | 0.764216081277499 |
41 | 1.99 | 1.9897021441658 | -0.0020461788448132 | 0.000291644675132151 | 0.144939633339348 |
42 | 1.99 | 1.98936871349784 | -0.00126949028428791 | 0.000629083800081452 | 0.0513943441753686 |
43 | 1.83 | 1.8314062464895 | -0.0723278330655473 | -0.00120469304407921 | -4.70256414767427 |
44 | 1.76 | 1.75857732940854 | -0.0725550766915319 | 0.00142331518600137 | -0.0150392655605177 |
45 | 1.71 | 1.70996704262761 | -0.0616957396674147 | 2.15358714078164e-06 | 0.718691918225985 |
46 | 1.67 | 1.66829945004129 | -0.0526124943932698 | 0.00167478415712291 | 0.601148673963686 |
47 | 1.65 | 1.65027771217577 | -0.0369240124173201 | -0.000322214713788992 | 1.03830084353723 |
48 | 1.62 | 1.61901092527717 | -0.0343589191938547 | 0.000981798663580816 | 0.169768111268073 |
49 | 1.61 | 1.6133036604805 | -0.0214392063235712 | -0.0033403845399453 | 0.887116562579553 |
50 | 1.6 | 1.59962462124861 | -0.018036395229867 | 0.000366606256147923 | 0.218802314055094 |
51 | 1.59 | 1.58971554240883 | -0.0143487023425929 | 0.000274050495213723 | 0.243512924711575 |
52 | 1.58 | 1.57929943602274 | -0.0125655991712944 | 0.000695532467084446 | 0.117770772217366 |
53 | 1.58 | 1.58034972940795 | -0.00639542140555435 | -0.000367176057530738 | 0.408155110864177 |
54 | 1.58 | 1.57787734825687 | -0.00461776137483385 | 0.00211762293340465 | 0.117633398358729 |
55 | 1.58 | 1.58116579638985 | -0.00103511319863424 | -0.00117593257713086 | 0.237097958243877 |
56 | 1.58 | 1.5789185828483 | -0.00158438473018306 | 0.00108297123267807 | -0.0363515705110608 |
57 | 1.58 | 1.5801702062194 | -0.000299201602592665 | -0.000173842491391405 | 0.0850559714010555 |
58 | 1.58 | 1.5788185509338 | -0.000776146612592636 | 0.00118279853009764 | -0.0315652560949032 |
59 | 1.58 | 1.58038383307216 | 0.00028498266863307 | -0.000386835430751495 | 0.070228149651161 |
60 | 1.58 | 1.57940911548639 | -0.000285704767677745 | 0.000592499147251613 | -0.0377715341563189 |
61 | 1.56 | 1.56477104297988 | -0.00676307795273544 | -0.00475266899132322 | -0.441029176980186 |
62 | 1.62 | 1.6187974693113 | 0.020055647755858 | 0.0011320915139548 | 1.73509545060754 |
63 | 1.67 | 1.66897130296791 | 0.0337046181410599 | 0.000990218050589433 | 0.90222520246456 |
64 | 1.64 | 1.63990196530704 | 0.00526346177502108 | 0.000178125546740534 | -1.87884544803264 |
65 | 1.63 | 1.62989312424694 | -0.00165248361272663 | 0.000126387786036804 | -0.457511970733486 |
66 | 1.63 | 1.62743445312071 | -0.00201754160683956 | 0.00256657725819799 | -0.024157524977977 |
67 | 1.62 | 1.62070534055264 | -0.00415107821385725 | -0.000699317989519489 | -0.141197285730913 |