| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.323374787803211 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.517269003255542 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 294053 | 289368.488782051 | 4684.51121794869 |
| 14 | 267510 | 264009.987582138 | 3500.01241786184 |
| 15 | 309739 | 307233.74100076 | 2505.25899923954 |
| 16 | 280733 | 278565.149577053 | 2167.85042294738 |
| 17 | 287298 | 285682.448726583 | 1615.55127341673 |
| 18 | 235672 | 235003.939922497 | 668.060077502683 |
| 19 | 256449 | 250470.286353987 | 5978.71364601282 |
| 20 | 288997 | 287811.71425629 | 1185.28574370965 |
| 21 | 290789 | 291763.360094503 | -974.360094502917 |
| 22 | 321898 | 312739.255918053 | 9158.74408194656 |
| 23 | 291834 | 303566.942154451 | -11732.9421544512 |
| 24 | 241380 | 245810.908787302 | -4430.90878730244 |
| 25 | 295469 | 307877.40161707 | -12408.4016170703 |
| 26 | 258200 | 276576.912034613 | -18376.9120346126 |
| 27 | 306102 | 312378.058690588 | -6276.05869058782 |
| 28 | 281480 | 280751.718448778 | 728.281551222317 |
| 29 | 283101 | 287210.194136875 | -4109.19413687527 |
| 30 | 237414 | 234348.827688401 | 3065.17231159876 |
| 31 | 274834 | 252449.053919784 | 22384.9460802159 |
| 32 | 299340 | 293418.157174628 | 5921.84282537235 |
| 33 | 300383 | 298145.616051656 | 2237.38394834369 |
| 34 | 340862 | 323706.667510046 | 17155.3324899536 |
| 35 | 318794 | 309808.21611443 | 8985.78388557018 |
| 36 | 265740 | 261307.787975296 | 4432.21202470432 |
| 37 | 322656 | 323448.290071862 | -792.290071861702 |
| 38 | 281563 | 293815.195868126 | -12252.1958681258 |
| 39 | 323461 | 335832.186696851 | -12371.1866968511 |
| 40 | 312579 | 304686.33554571 | 7892.66445428965 |
| 41 | 310784 | 311768.488851451 | -984.48885145149 |
| 42 | 262785 | 262428.581832533 | 356.418167467229 |
| 43 | 273754 | 286414.732939415 | -12660.7329394148 |
| 44 | 320036 | 310288.906327176 | 9747.09367282398 |
| 45 | 310336 | 314963.804413946 | -4627.80441394594 |
| 46 | 342206 | 343526.06799409 | -1320.06799409015 |
| 47 | 320052 | 320793.81834952 | -741.818349520443 |
| 48 | 265582 | 267553.99127694 | -1971.99127694039 |
| 49 | 326988 | 325794.974128122 | 1193.02587187773 |
| 50 | 300713 | 292792.945542886 | 7920.05445711449 |
| 51 | 346414 | 341291.487077328 | 5122.51292267221 |
| 52 | 317325 | 322894.949487424 | -5569.94948742416 |
| 53 | 326208 | 322516.653629722 | 3691.34637027793 |
| 54 | 270657 | 275158.107601341 | -4501.10760134074 |
| 55 | 278158 | 293017.490265081 | -14859.4902650805 |
| 56 | 324584 | 324023.318641607 | 560.681358393398 |
| 57 | 321801 | 320696.387809197 | 1104.61219080252 |
| 58 | 343542 | 352270.069040168 | -8728.06904016819 |
| 59 | 354040 | 327344.644414164 | 26695.355585836 |
| 60 | 278179 | 282546.750500347 | -4367.75050034694 |
| 61 | 330246 | 341120.752516443 | -10874.752516443 |
| 62 | 307344 | 306570.750155014 | 773.249844986363 |
| 63 | 375874 | 351779.063423266 | 24094.9365767336 |
| 64 | 335309 | 335775.396877069 | -466.396877069084 |
| 65 | 339271 | 340288.889334993 | -1017.88933499297 |
| 66 | 280264 | 288540.158856336 | -8276.15885633643 |
| 67 | 293689 | 301553.379684209 | -7864.37968420901 |
| 68 | 341161 | 340218.268109205 | 942.731890794763 |
| 69 | 345097 | 337205.25708168 | 7891.74291831977 |
| 70 | 368712 | 367532.31388943 | 1179.6861105701 |
| 71 | 369403 | 358208.908655372 | 11194.0913446283 |
| 72 | 288384 | 297526.295028499 | -9142.29502849898 |
| 73 | 340981 | 352278.896915486 | -11297.8969154863 |
| 74 | 319072 | 321668.829107707 | -2596.82910770731 |
| 75 | 374214 | 373949.870010017 | 264.129989982874 |
| 76 | 344529 | 341643.522297822 | 2885.477702178 |
| 77 | 337271 | 347047.905643385 | -9776.90564338537 |
| 78 | 281016 | 289926.355759009 | -8910.3557590092 |
| 79 | 282224 | 302878.614875532 | -20654.6148755319 |
| 80 | 320984 | 340489.928533266 | -19505.9285332662 |
| 81 | 325426 | 333296.471023785 | -7870.47102378466 |
| 82 | 366276 | 356177.223824245 | 10098.7761757547 |
| 83 | 380296 | 353243.041730613 | 27052.9582693872 |
| 84 | 300727 | 290571.106543295 | 10155.8934567049 |
| 85 | 359326 | 350809.801306092 | 8516.19869390846 |
| 86 | 327610 | 329652.462258387 | -2042.46225838654 |
| 87 | 383563 | 383114.099236913 | 448.900763087149 |
| 88 | 352405 | 351784.966222441 | 620.033777559234 |
| 89 | 329351 | 352024.962781723 | -22673.9627817226 |
| 90 | 294486 | 291036.119857682 | 3449.88014231779 |
| 91 | 333454 | 303874.909252604 | 29579.090747396 |
| 92 | 334339 | 358132.573866583 | -23793.5738665825 |
| 93 | 358000 | 353624.978077494 | 4375.02192250645 |
| 94 | 396057 | 386754.801649075 | 9302.19835092541 |
| 95 | 386976 | 389496.943463722 | -2520.94346372166 |
| 96 | 307155 | 311347.627876803 | -4192.62787680258 |
| 97 | 363909 | 366372.483941759 | -2463.4839417591 |
| 98 | 344700 | 337969.090064215 | 6730.90993578511 |
| 99 | 397561 | 395139.784618352 | 2421.21538164804 |
| 100 | 376791 | 364508.344509432 | 12282.655490568 |
| 101 | 337085 | 360366.904174313 | -23281.9041743126 |
| 102 | 299252 | 308324.741490536 | -9072.74149053579 |
| 103 | 323136 | 326259.18260488 | -3123.18260488007 |
| 104 | 329091 | 351261.470721356 | -22170.4707213559 |
| 105 | 346991 | 357137.676604364 | -10146.6766043635 |
| 106 | 461999 | 387296.047192006 | 74702.9528079935 |
| 107 | 436533 | 407049.076990643 | 29483.9230093567 |
| 108 | 360372 | 338664.2433622 | 21707.7566378 |
| 109 | 415467 | 402669.826394135 | 12797.1736058653 |
| 110 | 382110 | 382419.356976987 | -309.356976986921 |
| 111 | 432197 | 435805.02547376 | -3608.02547375963 |
| 112 | 424254 | 406675.357792801 | 17578.6422071985 |
| 113 | 386728 | 391799.007990554 | -5071.00799055427 |
| 114 | 354508 | 350618.957847109 | 3889.0421528907 |
| 115 | 375765 | 374827.24223998 | 937.757760020264 |
| 116 | 367986 | 394476.237641834 | -26490.237641834 |
| 117 | 402378 | 403163.834678152 | -785.834678151819 |
| 118 | 426516 | 466046.402418025 | -39530.402418025 |
| 119 | 433313 | 433032.70917433 | 280.290825669654 |
| 120 | 338461 | 352482.520346889 | -14021.5203468885 |
| 121 | 416834 | 401815.476466567 | 15018.5235334332 |
| 122 | 381099 | 377696.085961763 | 3402.91403823713 |
| 123 | 445673 | 431127.684410819 | 14545.3155891806 |
| 124 | 412408 | 415283.624949741 | -2875.624949741 |
| 125 | 393997 | 385865.56558387 | 8131.4344161296 |
| 126 | 348241 | 352090.845354091 | -3849.8453540905 |
| 127 | 380134 | 372763.627222769 | 7370.37277723069 |
| 128 | 373688 | 384893.045202115 | -11205.0452021151 |
| 129 | 393588 | 407519.958426963 | -13931.9584269634 |
| 130 | 434192 | 452590.90906297 | -18398.9090629697 |
| 131 | 430731 | 440344.241118614 | -9613.24111861404 |
| 132 | 344468 | 351589.138930657 | -7121.1389306566 |
| 133 | 411891 | 413317.439898153 | -1426.43989815313 |
| 134 | 370497 | 379814.731463399 | -9317.73146339913 |
| 135 | 437305 | 433032.603763737 | 4272.39623626281 |
| 136 | 411270 | 407769.259921596 | 3500.74007840402 |
| 137 | 385495 | 384265.596742289 | 1229.40325771074 |
| 138 | 341273 | 344065.518691083 | -2792.5186910826 |
| 139 | 384217 | 369007.258825209 | 15209.7411747908 |
| 140 | 373223 | 377170.385703148 | -3947.38570314797 |
| 141 | 415771 | 401189.830901217 | 14581.169098783 |
| 142 | 448634 | 453917.787666042 | -5283.78766604175 |
| 143 | 454341 | 448987.178932379 | 5353.821067621 |
| 144 | 350297 | 365944.276213171 | -15647.2762131706 |
| 145 | 419104 | 426908.568341928 | -7804.56834192818 |
| 146 | 398027 | 388581.403635479 | 9445.59636452119 |
| 147 | 456059 | 452623.370400324 | 3435.62959967559 |
| 148 | 430052 | 426819.359792142 | 3232.64020785841 |
| 149 | 399757 | 402434.038235086 | -2677.03823508619 |
| 150 | 362731 | 359563.053876946 | 3167.94612305408 |
| 151 | 384896 | 392732.999486022 | -7836.99948602234 |
| 152 | 385349 | 386738.449785457 | -1389.44978545682 |
| 153 | 432289 | 418070.010178424 | 14218.9898215762 |
| 154 | 468891 | 463728.167075343 | 5162.83292465738 |
| 155 | 442702 | 465898.865852142 | -23196.865852142 |
| 156 | 370178 | 366273.064532458 | 3904.93546754192 |
| 157 | 439400 | 436304.975144906 | 3095.02485509438 |
| 158 | 393900 | 407539.974269302 | -13639.9742693018 |
| 159 | 468700 | 462013.177694297 | 6686.82230570307 |
| 160 | 438800 | 437189.475108803 | 1610.52489119745 |
| 161 | 430100 | 410211.231157389 | 19888.7688426111 |
| 162 | 366300 | 376683.188320934 | -10383.1883209339 |
| 163 | 391000 | 401619.338015124 | -10619.3380151245 |
| 164 | 380900 | 396981.674841687 | -16081.6748416867 |
| 165 | 431400 | 429025.050999797 | 2374.94900020334 |
| 166 | 465400 | 467683.513708117 | -2283.51370811701 |
| 167 | 471500 | 457520.435165716 | 13979.5648342842 |
| 168 | 387500 | 379402.110137825 | 8097.88986217481 |
| 169 | 446400 | 450506.45000154 | -4106.45000153978 |
| 170 | 421500 | 413555.470065229 | 7944.52993477054 |
| 171 | 504800 | 482122.88084113 | 22677.1191588701 |
| 172 | 492071 | 460693.346976796 | 31377.6530232039 |
| 173 | 421253 | 449738.376869783 | -28485.3768697828 |
| 174 | 396682 | 389972.253196591 | 6709.74680340855 |
| 175 | 428000 | 420353.17541621 | 7646.82458378997 |
| 176 | 421900 | 419710.525834272 | 2189.47416572791 |
| 177 | 465600 | 464122.098497737 | 1477.90150226286 |
| 178 | 525793 | 500860.029528858 | 24932.9704711417 |
| 179 | 499855 | 505190.108534259 | -5335.10853425926 |
| 180 | 435287 | 418767.335044044 | 16519.6649559558 |
| 181 | 479499 | 488323.57926237 | -8824.57926236972 |
| 182 | 473027 | 454064.685104065 | 18962.3148959349 |
| 183 | 554410 | 531351.33545426 | 23058.6645457398 |
| 184 | 489574 | 513090.346666579 | -23516.3466665791 |
| 185 | 462157 | 463432.145273439 | -1275.14527343883 |
| 186 | 420331 | 424783.320935812 | -4452.32093581202 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 187 | 451882.686514132 | 426060.554742559 | 477704.818285706 |
| 188 | 446857.189021398 | 419718.4939558 | 473995.884086996 |
| 189 | 490311.692466379 | 461917.413984642 | 518705.970948117 |
| 190 | 534780.91702915 | 505184.273112424 | 564377.560945876 |
| 191 | 520454.557611995 | 489702.523341585 | 551206.591882404 |
| 192 | 443406.134313026 | 411540.574653679 | 475271.693972373 |
| 193 | 498749.919624945 | 465808.453764446 | 531691.385485444 |
| 194 | 477070.00842924 | 443086.682316669 | 511053.334541811 |
| 195 | 549658.43533245 | 514664.253897412 | 584652.616767487 |
| 196 | 507639.729989589 | 471663.084579777 | 543616.375399401 |
| 197 | 473370.48151373 | 436437.49767031 | 510303.465357149 |
| 198 | 434022.004266611 | 396156.827966833 | 471887.180566389 |
