| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.718586430766471 |
| beta | 0.120942347498989 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 14596 | 14912.5894764957 | -316.589476495717 |
| 14 | 14609 | 14685.5976502755 | -76.5976502754584 |
| 15 | 13923 | 13925.98711463 | -2.98711462999199 |
| 16 | 14226 | 14228.5541749737 | -2.55417497369854 |
| 17 | 14056 | 14101.8770295087 | -45.8770295087397 |
| 18 | 14278 | 14347.9982759895 | -69.9982759895101 |
| 19 | 16142 | 15846.8279447983 | 295.172055201727 |
| 20 | 16509 | 17083.9250660417 | -574.92506604172 |
| 21 | 15680 | 15136.7335518573 | 543.266448142704 |
| 22 | 14086 | 15043.1065651383 | -957.106565138323 |
| 23 | 13129 | 13152.9021226388 | -23.9021226388159 |
| 24 | 13086 | 13398.6251218812 | -312.62512188117 |
| 25 | 13096 | 12029.821973287 | 1066.17802671302 |
| 26 | 12280 | 12849.9298209176 | -569.929820917609 |
| 27 | 11534 | 11699.5829575639 | -165.582957563876 |
| 28 | 11135 | 11814.3523559087 | -679.352355908735 |
| 29 | 10903 | 11059.2463933806 | -156.246393380621 |
| 30 | 10926 | 11079.7785490108 | -153.778549010829 |
| 31 | 13220 | 12474.3964826301 | 745.603517369853 |
| 32 | 13581 | 13682.6840357291 | -101.684035729102 |
| 33 | 11788 | 12323.7332100756 | -535.73321007559 |
| 34 | 11088 | 10872.2550309132 | 215.744969086772 |
| 35 | 10434 | 10029.1204544854 | 404.879545514561 |
| 36 | 11061 | 10480.6322033835 | 580.367796616451 |
| 37 | 10828 | 10198.066003696 | 629.933996304022 |
| 38 | 10270 | 10262.8894100258 | 7.11058997415421 |
| 39 | 10360 | 9709.75135519001 | 650.248644809993 |
| 40 | 9899 | 10405.853207172 | -506.853207172035 |
| 41 | 9395 | 10076.5719976917 | -681.571997691672 |
| 42 | 9944 | 9829.31212604586 | 114.687873954135 |
| 43 | 12117 | 11802.2817982116 | 314.71820178837 |
| 44 | 12474 | 12557.3927099031 | -83.3927099031225 |
| 45 | 11106 | 11185.9180234284 | -79.9180234284449 |
| 46 | 10643 | 10409.5519488674 | 233.448051132578 |
| 47 | 10227 | 9769.99547426949 | 457.004525730506 |
| 48 | 11273 | 10450.5102260992 | 822.489773900761 |
| 49 | 11516 | 10519.0823423497 | 996.91765765032 |
| 50 | 11583 | 10867.4420610534 | 715.557938946635 |
| 51 | 11605 | 11261.0396335229 | 343.960366477088 |
| 52 | 11414 | 11641.4711648771 | -227.471164877059 |
| 53 | 11181 | 11718.1107069267 | -537.110706926664 |
| 54 | 12000 | 12065.6207104368 | -65.6207104368314 |
| 55 | 14007 | 14216.5277746689 | -209.527774668906 |
| 56 | 14582 | 14688.5413515031 | -106.541351503118 |
| 57 | 13251 | 13505.0509207655 | -254.050920765472 |
| 58 | 12806 | 12880.248046138 | -74.2480461380073 |
| 59 | 12645 | 12244.2633205262 | 400.736679473786 |
| 60 | 13869 | 13144.0733340536 | 724.92666594641 |
| 61 | 13342 | 13340.0213937272 | 1.97860627284717 |
| 62 | 13079 | 12956.1823683206 | 122.817631679414 |
| 63 | 12513 | 12829.6880042326 | -316.688004232552 |
| 64 | 12331 | 12527.5784804994 | -196.578480499446 |
| 65 | 11882 | 12494.9656109611 | -612.965610961062 |
| 66 | 12388 | 12869.7439234733 | -481.743923473252 |
| 67 | 14394 | 14594.0617831402 | -200.061783140221 |
| 68 | 14635 | 15015.6106263407 | -380.610626340687 |
| 69 | 13218 | 13483.5992119318 | -265.599211931756 |
| 70 | 12554 | 12790.0258999214 | -236.025899921362 |
| 71 | 12031 | 12046.326276337 | -15.3262763369512 |
| 72 | 12429 | 12577.1008785278 | -148.100878527761 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 11705.093451711 | 10831.5039050928 | 12578.6829983293 |
| 74 | 11116.5040668411 | 9994.75912331483 | 12238.2490103674 |
| 75 | 10530.0636911956 | 9164.01963583079 | 11896.1077465604 |
| 76 | 10268.8368137604 | 8657.01152055896 | 11880.6621069618 |
| 77 | 10056.9042283763 | 8195.30461691918 | 11918.5038398334 |
| 78 | 10758.948846053 | 8642.271845387 | 12875.625846719 |
| 79 | 12800.447674291 | 10422.6726297695 | 15178.2227188124 |
| 80 | 13224.0733267271 | 10578.7833282184 | 15869.3633252357 |
| 81 | 11940.1312667433 | 9020.69900721712 | 14859.5635262695 |
| 82 | 11411.0207974666 | 8210.72097731894 | 14611.3206176143 |
| 83 | 10884.8310013421 | 7396.91041880783 | 14372.7515838763 |
| 84 | 11376.38320152 | 7594.10531341082 | 15158.6610896292 |
