| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0502034740466688 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 15220 | 14997 | 223 |
| 4 | 14807 | 14674.1953747124 | 132.804625287594 |
| 5 | 14291 | 14267.8626282713 | 23.1373717286897 |
| 6 | 14653 | 13753.0242047124 | 899.975795287601 |
| 7 | 17006 | 14160.2061161938 | 2845.79388380625 |
| 8 | 18032 | 16656.0748555816 | 1375.92514441841 |
| 9 | 16558 | 17751.1510778596 | -1193.15107785955 |
| 10 | 16102 | 16217.2507486885 | -115.250748688479 |
| 11 | 15055 | 15755.4647607178 | -700.464760717838 |
| 12 | 15484 | 14673.2989962825 | 810.701003717466 |
| 13 | 14596 | 15142.9990030823 | -546.999003082272 |
| 14 | 14609 | 14227.5377528275 | 381.462247172523 |
| 15 | 13923 | 14259.6884828532 | -336.688482853187 |
| 16 | 14226 | 13556.7855513425 | 669.214448657545 |
| 17 | 14056 | 13893.3824415473 | 162.61755845271 |
| 18 | 14278 | 13731.5464079226 | 546.453592077398 |
| 19 | 16142 | 13980.9802766502 | 2161.01972334983 |
| 20 | 16509 | 15953.4709742457 | 555.529025754298 |
| 21 | 15680 | 16348.3604612723 | -668.360461272328 |
| 22 | 14086 | 15485.806444201 | -1399.80644420102 |
| 23 | 13129 | 13821.5312977092 | -692.531297709218 |
| 24 | 13086 | 12829.7638206782 | 256.236179321833 |
| 25 | 13096 | 12799.6277670566 | 296.372232943431 |
| 26 | 12280 | 12824.5066827613 | -544.506682761297 |
| 27 | 11534 | 11981.1705556451 | -447.170555645052 |
| 28 | 11135 | 11212.7210402603 | -77.7210402602923 |
| 29 | 10903 | 10809.8191740327 | 93.1808259672962 |
| 30 | 10926 | 10582.4971752108 | 343.502824789199 |
| 31 | 13220 | 10622.7422103601 | 2597.25778963994 |
| 32 | 13581 | 13047.1335743948 | 533.86642560524 |
| 33 | 11788 | 13434.935523637 | -1646.93552363702 |
| 34 | 11088 | 11559.2536388196 | -471.253638819573 |
| 35 | 10434 | 10835.5950689937 | -401.595068993696 |
| 36 | 11061 | 10161.4336013702 | 899.5663986298 |
| 37 | 10828 | 10833.5949597171 | -5.59495971706747 |
| 38 | 10270 | 10600.3140733021 | -330.314073302119 |
| 39 | 10360 | 10025.7311592958 | 334.268840704153 |
| 40 | 9899 | 10132.5126163647 | -233.512616364747 |
| 41 | 9395 | 9659.78947178951 | -264.789471789511 |
| 42 | 9944 | 9142.49612041469 | 801.503879585305 |
| 43 | 12117 | 9731.73439963176 | 2385.26560036824 |
| 44 | 12474 | 12024.4830192943 | 449.516980705741 |
| 45 | 11106 | 12404.0503333687 | -1298.05033336866 |
| 46 | 10643 | 10970.8836971461 | -327.883697146113 |
| 47 | 10227 | 10491.4227964661 | -264.422796466113 |
| 48 | 11273 | 10062.1478534664 | 1210.85214653362 |
| 49 | 11516 | 11168.9368377792 | 347.063162220767 |
| 50 | 11583 | 11429.3606142363 | 153.639385763663 |
| 51 | 11605 | 11504.0738451521 | 100.92615484793 |
| 52 | 11414 | 11531.1406887476 | -117.140688747608 |
| 53 | 11181 | 11334.2598192203 | -153.259819220259 |
| 54 | 12000 | 11093.5656438636 | 906.434356136364 |
| 55 | 14007 | 11958.0717975369 | 2048.92820246306 |
| 56 | 14582 | 14067.9351113728 | 514.064888627219 |
| 57 | 13251 | 14668.7429546673 | -1417.74295466728 |
| 58 | 12806 | 13266.5673330378 | -460.567333037794 |
| 59 | 12645 | 12798.4452528869 | -153.445252886888 |
| 60 | 13869 | 12629.741768116 | 1239.258231884 |
| 61 | 13342 | 13915.9568365975 | -573.956836597505 |
| 62 | 13079 | 13360.1422094475 | -281.142209447475 |
| 63 | 12513 | 13083.0278938321 | -570.027893832055 |
| 64 | 12331 | 12488.4105132582 | -157.410513258181 |
| 65 | 11882 | 12298.5079586412 | -416.50795864115 |
| 66 | 12388 | 11828.5978121493 | 559.402187850721 |
| 67 | 14394 | 12362.6817453687 | 2031.31825463131 |
| 68 | 14635 | 14470.6609786456 | 164.339021354401 |
| 69 | 13218 | 14719.911368439 | -1501.91136843902 |
| 70 | 12554 | 13227.5102000332 | -673.510200033195 |
| 71 | 12031 | 12529.6976481857 | -498.697648185662 |
| 72 | 12429 | 11981.6612937478 | 447.338706252162 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 12402.1192508772 | 10562.3578223224 | 14241.8806794321 |
| 74 | 12375.2385017545 | 9707.31334138444 | 15043.1636621245 |
| 75 | 12348.3577526317 | 8999.27291144455 | 15697.4425938189 |
| 76 | 12321.477003509 | 8359.48033745052 | 16283.4736695674 |
| 77 | 12294.5962543862 | 7758.29476330798 | 16830.8977454644 |
| 78 | 12267.7155052634 | 7180.94130020696 | 17354.4897103199 |
| 79 | 12240.8347561407 | 6618.89550005437 | 17862.774012227 |
| 80 | 12213.9540070179 | 6066.76925242458 | 18361.1387616112 |
| 81 | 12187.0732578951 | 5520.93707052043 | 18853.2094452699 |
| 82 | 12160.1925087724 | 4978.84608799946 | 19341.5389295453 |
| 83 | 12133.3117596496 | 4438.63591994552 | 19827.9875993537 |
| 84 | 12106.4310105269 | 3898.9141577255 | 20313.9478633282 |
