| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 15554 | 16111 | -557 |
| 3 | 15220 | 15554.0368215775 | -334.036821577472 |
| 4 | 14807 | 15220.0220821593 | -413.022082159254 |
| 5 | 14291 | 14807.0273036348 | -516.027303634823 |
| 6 | 14653 | 14291.034112997 | 361.965887002982 |
| 7 | 17006 | 14652.9760715351 | 2353.0239284649 |
| 8 | 18032 | 17005.8444487381 | 1026.1555512619 |
| 9 | 16558 | 18031.9321639746 | -1473.93216397463 |
| 10 | 16102 | 16558.0974371766 | -456.097437176599 |
| 11 | 15055 | 16102.0301512157 | -1047.03015121565 |
| 12 | 15484 | 15055.0692159817 | 428.930784018259 |
| 13 | 14596 | 15483.9716446892 | -887.971644689238 |
| 14 | 14609 | 14596.0587011072 | 12.9412988928034 |
| 15 | 13923 | 14608.9991444901 | -685.999144490053 |
| 16 | 14226 | 13923.0453493189 | 302.954650681068 |
| 17 | 14056 | 14225.9799725886 | -169.979972588617 |
| 18 | 14278 | 14056.0112368595 | 221.988763140522 |
| 19 | 16142 | 14277.9853249974 | 1864.01467500259 |
| 20 | 16509 | 16141.8767756539 | 367.12322434608 |
| 21 | 15680 | 16508.9757305992 | -828.975730599195 |
| 22 | 14086 | 15680.0548010666 | -1594.05480106658 |
| 23 | 13129 | 14086.1053781191 | -957.105378119128 |
| 24 | 13086 | 13129.0632713282 | -43.0632713282412 |
| 25 | 13096 | 13086.002846782 | 9.99715321798612 |
| 26 | 12280 | 13095.9993391186 | -815.999339118578 |
| 27 | 11534 | 12280.0539432368 | -746.053943236775 |
| 28 | 11135 | 11534.0493193592 | -399.049319359192 |
| 29 | 10903 | 11135.0263799379 | -232.026379937932 |
| 30 | 10926 | 10903.0153385589 | 22.984661441069 |
| 31 | 13220 | 10925.9984805539 | 2294.00151944612 |
| 32 | 13581 | 13219.8483505302 | 361.151649469788 |
| 33 | 11788 | 13580.9761253619 | -1792.97612536187 |
| 34 | 11088 | 11788.1185282034 | -700.118528203424 |
| 35 | 10434 | 11088.0462827085 | -654.046282708485 |
| 36 | 11061 | 10434.0432370123 | 626.956762987667 |
| 37 | 10828 | 11060.9585537935 | -232.9585537935 |
| 38 | 10270 | 10828.0154001821 | -558.015400182112 |
| 39 | 10360 | 10270.0368887025 | 89.9631112975057 |
| 40 | 9899 | 10359.9940528121 | -460.994052812079 |
| 41 | 9395 | 9899.03047491603 | -504.030474916033 |
| 42 | 9944 | 9395.03331992313 | 548.966680076874 |
| 43 | 12117 | 9943.9637094809 | 2173.0362905191 |
| 44 | 12474 | 12116.8563471739 | 357.143652826073 |
| 45 | 11106 | 12473.9763903183 | -1367.97639031834 |
| 46 | 10643 | 11106.0904327624 | -463.090432762365 |
| 47 | 10227 | 10643.0306135013 | -416.030613501342 |
| 48 | 11273 | 10227.0275025197 | 1045.97249748031 |
| 49 | 11516 | 11272.9308539365 | 243.069146063466 |
| 50 | 11583 | 11515.9839314374 | 67.0160685626452 |
| 51 | 11605 | 11582.9955697713 | 22.0044302286551 |
| 52 | 11414 | 11604.998545354 | -190.998545353981 |
| 53 | 11181 | 11414.0126263335 | -233.012626333457 |
| 54 | 12000 | 11181.0154037567 | 818.984596243317 |
| 55 | 14007 | 11999.9458594169 | 2007.05414058305 |
| 56 | 14582 | 14006.8673197495 | 575.132680250503 |
| 57 | 13251 | 14581.9619797261 | -1330.96197972613 |
| 58 | 12806 | 13251.0879858522 | -445.087985852155 |
| 59 | 12645 | 12806.0294234143 | -161.029423414278 |
| 60 | 13869 | 12645.0106451659 | 1223.98935483413 |
| 61 | 13342 | 13868.919085783 | -526.919085783025 |
| 62 | 13079 | 13342.0348330196 | -263.034833019639 |
| 63 | 12513 | 13079.0173884335 | -566.01738843354 |
| 64 | 12331 | 12513.0374176896 | -182.037417689622 |
| 65 | 11882 | 12331.0120339405 | -449.012033940537 |
| 66 | 12388 | 11882.0296828212 | 505.970317178826 |
| 67 | 14394 | 12387.9665518398 | 2006.0334481602 |
| 68 | 14635 | 14393.8673872244 | 241.132612775627 |
| 69 | 13218 | 14634.9840594557 | -1416.98405945569 |
| 70 | 12554 | 13218.0936725105 | -664.093672510455 |
| 71 | 12031 | 12554.0439012147 | -523.043901214744 |
| 72 | 12429 | 12031.034576843 | 397.965423157037 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 12428.9736917152 | 10649.0208935852 | 14208.9264898451 |
| 74 | 12428.9736917152 | 9911.82350616585 | 14946.1238772644 |
| 75 | 12428.9736917152 | 9346.14087924362 | 15511.8065041867 |
| 76 | 12428.9736917152 | 8869.24459490296 | 15988.7027885273 |
| 77 | 12428.9736917152 | 8449.08872657714 | 16408.8586568532 |
| 78 | 12428.9736917152 | 8069.23775604521 | 16788.7096273851 |
| 79 | 12428.9736917152 | 7719.92808545775 | 17138.0192979726 |
| 80 | 12428.9736917152 | 7394.79812715124 | 17463.1492562791 |
| 81 | 12428.9736917152 | 7089.42907556176 | 17768.5183078685 |
| 82 | 12428.9736917152 | 6800.60360785136 | 18057.3437755789 |
| 83 | 12428.9736917152 | 6525.89289487922 | 18332.0544885511 |
| 84 | 12428.9736917152 | 6263.40997158271 | 18594.5374118476 |
