| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.928530306233223 |
| beta | 0.083373495684329 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 413626 | 370941.662393162 | 42684.3376068376 |
| 14 | 411062 | 410826.799798205 | 235.200201795436 |
| 15 | 408352 | 411369.4596299 | -3017.4596299 |
| 16 | 409780 | 413047.663478832 | -3267.66347883153 |
| 17 | 411318 | 414361.204899496 | -3043.20489949576 |
| 18 | 415555 | 418165.990428387 | -2610.99042838684 |
| 19 | 479481 | 474135.095845041 | 5345.90415495919 |
| 20 | 497826 | 503068.896220254 | -5242.89622025355 |
| 21 | 501638 | 508817.630019806 | -7179.63001980598 |
| 22 | 497990 | 503543.154710481 | -5553.15471048077 |
| 23 | 499287 | 498963.931226523 | 323.06877347664 |
| 24 | 506247 | 505394.677977085 | 852.322022914712 |
| 25 | 510401 | 508893.679633992 | 1507.32036600768 |
| 26 | 508642 | 505834.759312277 | 2807.24068772269 |
| 27 | 501805 | 507056.161679328 | -5251.16167932772 |
| 28 | 495476 | 504992.493448759 | -9516.49344875937 |
| 29 | 490336 | 498386.166779145 | -8050.16677914467 |
| 30 | 490042 | 495051.431585848 | -5009.43158584816 |
| 31 | 553155 | 546655.218524177 | 6499.78147582256 |
| 32 | 569999 | 573286.00784839 | -3287.00784839038 |
| 33 | 573170 | 578246.197453661 | -5076.19745366066 |
| 34 | 571687 | 572737.67551798 | -1050.67551798001 |
| 35 | 575453 | 570804.279711824 | 4648.72028817562 |
| 36 | 580177 | 579669.387479617 | 507.612520382507 |
| 37 | 579849 | 581248.47974832 | -1399.47974832053 |
| 38 | 574346 | 573711.734234049 | 634.265765951248 |
| 39 | 563325 | 570299.633425615 | -6974.6334256155 |
| 40 | 555604 | 564157.506684126 | -8553.50668412587 |
| 41 | 545544 | 556451.368965452 | -10907.3689654521 |
| 42 | 545109 | 548360.994215907 | -3251.99421590695 |
| 43 | 605181 | 600235.265491456 | 4945.73450854386 |
| 44 | 627856 | 622419.400555861 | 5436.59944413858 |
| 45 | 631421 | 633722.971827639 | -2301.97182763857 |
| 46 | 625671 | 629663.992201424 | -3992.9922014242 |
| 47 | 613577 | 623764.008267442 | -10187.0082674423 |
| 48 | 606463 | 615767.331544332 | -9304.3315443322 |
| 49 | 601676 | 604549.450018621 | -2873.45001862128 |
| 50 | 589121 | 592125.335400716 | -3004.33540071559 |
| 51 | 573559 | 580845.101590137 | -7286.10159013735 |
| 52 | 558487 | 570331.037527597 | -11844.0375275973 |
| 53 | 552148 | 555176.688433509 | -3028.68843350874 |
| 54 | 545720 | 551334.337288141 | -5614.33728814148 |
| 55 | 606569 | 597803.412899278 | 8765.58710072166 |
| 56 | 636067 | 620067.614329072 | 15999.3856709281 |
| 57 | 630704 | 637941.831081102 | -7237.83108110167 |
| 58 | 623275 | 626112.642868668 | -2837.64286866784 |
| 59 | 617771 | 617865.935556923 | -94.9355569228064 |
| 60 | 605401 | 617107.598984121 | -11706.5989841206 |
| 61 | 619393 | 601737.241525579 | 17655.7584744206 |
| 62 | 596019 | 607573.518802152 | -11554.5188021518 |
| 63 | 569977 | 586594.007157595 | -16617.0071575955 |
| 64 | 546213 | 564913.652950435 | -18700.6529504347 |
| 65 | 528492 | 541315.448051794 | -12823.4480517944 |
| 66 | 505944 | 524727.999812183 | -18783.9998121825 |
| 67 | 554910 | 555511.276004212 | -601.276004211511 |
| 68 | 567831 | 564384.827102563 | 3446.17289743712 |
| 69 | 564021 | 562760.212480154 | 1260.787519846 |
| 70 | 552800 | 553612.612203298 | -812.612203298137 |
| 71 | 541102 | 542074.877965835 | -972.87796583469 |
| 72 | 542378 | 534236.147757394 | 8141.85224260576 |
| 73 | 540380 | 535495.446246889 | 4884.5537531107 |
| 74 | 521219 | 522498.19159472 | -1279.19159472012 |
| 75 | 504652 | 506605.849030474 | -1953.84903047362 |
| 76 | 490626 | 495434.940566995 | -4808.9405669953 |
| 77 | 481686 | 483274.254599098 | -1588.25459909847 |
| 78 | 477930 | 475681.396561134 | 2248.6034388665 |
| 79 | 522605 | 527910.202528363 | -5305.20252836286 |
| 80 | 531432 | 532957.738146199 | -1525.73814619903 |
| 81 | 532355 | 526427.917952128 | 5927.08204787178 |
| 82 | 539954 | 521693.721994227 | 18260.2780057731 |
| 83 | 524987 | 529559.608187859 | -4572.6081878586 |
| 84 | 533307 | 520456.491882139 | 12850.5081178608 |
| 85 | 530541 | 527646.287194407 | 2894.71280559292 |
| 86 | 508392 | 513998.006018179 | -5606.0060181793 |
| 87 | 495208 | 495342.030115875 | -134.030115874601 |
| 88 | 482223 | 487099.869641688 | -4876.86964168755 |
| 89 | 470495 | 476544.075685211 | -6049.07568521117 |
| 90 | 466106 | 466175.880273018 | -69.880273018207 |
| 91 | 515037 | 516625.00178253 | -1588.00178253005 |
| 92 | 517752 | 526594.920659021 | -8842.9206590209 |
| 93 | 515565 | 514437.79972363 | 1127.20027636952 |
| 94 | 510727 | 506390.910042672 | 4336.08995732822 |
| 95 | 499725 | 498880.660013083 | 844.339986917097 |
| 96 | 498369 | 495656.674849538 | 2712.32515046216 |
| 97 | 493756 | 491540.582608039 | 2215.41739196132 |
| 98 | 476141 | 475420.683975548 | 720.316024452157 |
| 99 | 458458 | 462286.394018413 | -3828.39401841321 |
| 100 | 443182 | 449245.360662311 | -6063.36066231091 |
| 101 | 429597 | 436382.669894688 | -6785.66989468795 |
| 102 | 424476 | 424579.405660936 | -103.405660935969 |
| 103 | 476257 | 473707.852750821 | 2549.14724917925 |
| 104 | 480555 | 486139.964289895 | -5584.9642898952 |
| 105 | 469762 | 477111.961403009 | -7349.96140300931 |
| 106 | 459820 | 460158.2959639 | -338.29596390028 |
| 107 | 451028 | 446431.503318567 | 4596.49668143288 |
| 108 | 450065 | 445488.806889117 | 4576.1931108826 |
| 109 | 444385 | 441875.942890219 | 2509.05710978067 |
| 110 | 428846 | 424752.659462975 | 4093.34053702495 |
| 111 | 421020 | 413517.168417653 | 7502.83158234728 |
| 112 | 399778 | 410806.932160724 | -11028.9321607243 |
| 113 | 389005 | 392866.668841903 | -3861.66884190292 |
| 114 | 384018 | 384067.102879875 | -49.1028798751649 |
| 115 | 431933 | 433250.848032059 | -1317.84803205868 |
| 116 | 445844 | 441026.931203974 | 4817.06879602582 |
| 117 | 431464 | 441852.595379689 | -10388.5953796892 |
| 118 | 423263 | 422664.560389776 | 598.43961022445 |
| 119 | 415881 | 410318.73305097 | 5562.2669490297 |
| 120 | 416208 | 410504.587240729 | 5703.41275927145 |
| 121 | 413491 | 408111.161520362 | 5379.83847963763 |
| 122 | 399153 | 394309.47311495 | 4843.52688504971 |
| 123 | 385939 | 384615.062915174 | 1323.93708482553 |
| 124 | 373917 | 374965.573194026 | -1048.57319402642 |
| 125 | 364635 | 367699.742240622 | -3064.742240622 |
| 126 | 364696 | 360869.448112091 | 3826.55188790907 |
| 127 | 418358 | 414818.030862218 | 3539.96913778153 |
| 128 | 428212 | 429176.123672064 | -964.123672064277 |
| 129 | 423730 | 424732.399859706 | -1002.39985970629 |
| 130 | 420677 | 416956.971096342 | 3720.02890365769 |
| 131 | 417428 | 410018.053705197 | 7409.94629480323 |
| 132 | 423245 | 414226.316036133 | 9018.68396386673 |
| 133 | 423113 | 417441.439687731 | 5671.56031226943 |
| 134 | 418873 | 406448.222751697 | 12424.7772483031 |
| 135 | 405733 | 406704.519313493 | -971.519313493161 |
| 136 | 397812 | 397739.193884029 | 72.8061159705394 |
| 137 | 389918 | 394442.441702255 | -4524.44170225493 |
| 138 | 391116 | 389708.227781088 | 1407.77221891191 |
| 139 | 443814 | 444162.105650922 | -348.105650921818 |
| 140 | 460373 | 457058.789780485 | 3314.21021951456 |
| 141 | 455422 | 459386.792224314 | -3964.79222431395 |
| 142 | 456288 | 451770.769009882 | 4517.23099011782 |
| 143 | 452233 | 448470.076537066 | 3762.92346293404 |
| 144 | 459256 | 451758.891377663 | 7497.10862233734 |
| 145 | 461146 | 455556.123579724 | 5589.87642027612 |
| 146 | 451391 | 447197.542747883 | 4193.45725211711 |
| 147 | 443101 | 440443.985611997 | 2657.0143880031 |
| 148 | 438810 | 436794.009176378 | 2015.99082362221 |
| 149 | 430457 | 436994.93814818 | -6537.93814818008 |
| 150 | 435721 | 432681.169963579 | 3039.83003642136 |
| 151 | 488280 | 490517.381078699 | -2237.38107869937 |
| 152 | 505814 | 503767.712551931 | 2046.28744806937 |
| 153 | 502338 | 506146.178432435 | -3808.17843243503 |
| 154 | 500910 | 501041.903931422 | -131.903931422217 |
| 155 | 501434 | 494770.647186454 | 6663.35281354643 |
| 156 | 515476 | 502644.224387022 | 12831.7756129785 |
| 157 | 520862 | 513296.274270554 | 7565.72572944564 |
| 158 | 519517 | 508863.214774568 | 10653.785225432 |
| 159 | 511805 | 510689.270982094 | 1115.72901790612 |
| 160 | 508607 | 508133.844419303 | 473.155580696592 |
| 161 | 505327 | 508742.912925036 | -3415.91292503622 |
| 162 | 511435 | 510706.306447516 | 728.693552483746 |
| 163 | 570158 | 568534.22693549 | 1623.77306450973 |
| 164 | 591665 | 588489.650371164 | 3175.3496288365 |
| 165 | 593572 | 594399.214808759 | -827.214808759047 |
| 166 | 586346 | 595457.515330013 | -9111.51533001289 |
| 167 | 586063 | 583770.834947541 | 2292.16505245899 |
| 168 | 591504 | 590124.855189166 | 1379.14481083432 |
| 169 | 594033 | 590978.192054025 | 3054.80794597452 |
| 170 | 585597 | 583439.864216554 | 2157.13578344637 |
| 171 | 572450 | 576899.628256617 | -4449.62825661746 |
| 172 | 562917 | 568904.619452164 | -5987.61945216428 |
| 173 | 554675 | 562510.497462571 | -7835.49746257102 |
| 174 | 553997 | 559598.030685997 | -5601.03068599687 |
| 175 | 601310 | 610054.211129721 | -8744.21112972079 |
| 176 | 622255 | 618132.531807042 | 4122.46819295781 |
| 177 | 616735 | 622347.777569787 | -5612.77756978676 |
| 178 | 606480 | 615712.303235441 | -9232.30323544063 |
| 179 | 595079 | 602060.976014971 | -6981.97601497103 |
| 180 | 598588 | 596352.956844188 | 2235.04315581231 |
| 181 | 599917 | 594801.574516751 | 5115.42548324866 |
| 182 | 591573 | 585952.752612391 | 5620.24738760933 |
| 183 | 575489 | 579264.349935558 | -3775.34993555781 |
| 184 | 567223 | 568946.120967941 | -1723.12096794078 |
| 185 | 555338 | 563870.394898768 | -8532.39489876817 |
| 186 | 555252 | 557907.331313233 | -2655.33131323324 |
| 187 | 608249 | 608538.878457776 | -289.878457776154 |
| 188 | 630859 | 623706.209195595 | 7152.79080440488 |
| 189 | 628632 | 628593.346503826 | 38.6534961741418 |
| 190 | 624435 | 625938.135497878 | -1503.13549787772 |
| 191 | 609670 | 619214.18177166 | -9544.18177165987 |
| 192 | 615830 | 611177.238562208 | 4652.76143779221 |
| 193 | 621170 | 611655.232313557 | 9514.76768644305 |
| 194 | 604212 | 606846.578052115 | -2634.5780521147 |
| 195 | 584348 | 591101.939126499 | -6753.939126499 |
| 196 | 573717 | 577214.204870675 | -3497.20487067488 |
| 197 | 555234 | 568916.723897425 | -13682.7238974249 |
| 198 | 544897 | 557104.936392903 | -12207.9363929032 |
| 199 | 598866 | 596809.62593863 | 2056.37406137027 |
| 200 | 620081 | 612643.050779994 | 7437.94922000647 |
| 201 | 607699 | 615264.198831516 | -7565.19883151609 |
| 202 | 589960 | 602827.416195001 | -12867.4161950009 |
| 203 | 578665 | 581485.955489331 | -2820.95548933069 |
| 204 | 580166 | 577736.123328928 | 2429.87667107163 |
| 205 | 579457 | 573355.243592942 | 6101.75640705775 |
| 206 | 571560 | 561102.63354657 | 10457.3664534298 |
| 207 | 560460 | 554826.80152462 | 5633.19847537973 |
| 208 | 551397 | 551239.554873353 | 157.445126646664 |
| 209 | 536763 | 544456.392451876 | -7693.3924518762 |
| 210 | 540562 | 537623.767516905 | 2938.23248309514 |
| 211 | 588184 | 592896.621883296 | -4712.62188329617 |
| 212 | 607049 | 602790.449886275 | 4258.55011372489 |
| 213 | 598968 | 601102.028024154 | -2134.02802415402 |
| 214 | 577644 | 593464.626235032 | -15820.6262350321 |
| 215 | 562640 | 570005.737766049 | -7365.73776604887 |
| 216 | 565867 | 561966.079192025 | 3900.92080797546 |
| 217 | 561274 | 558882.28355162 | 2391.7164483798 |
| 218 | 554144 | 542877.617928599 | 11266.3820714012 |
| 219 | 539900 | 536452.364260622 | 3447.63573937828 |
| 220 | 526271 | 529719.375660071 | -3448.37566007068 |
| 221 | 511841 | 518022.828145907 | -6181.82814590714 |
| 222 | 505282 | 512466.418676225 | -7184.41867622524 |
| 223 | 554083 | 556122.480470264 | -2039.48047026398 |
| 224 | 584225 | 567675.708985157 | 16549.2910148429 |
| 225 | 568858 | 576430.363179148 | -7572.36317914829 |
| 226 | 539516 | 561831.743922162 | -22315.7439221623 |
| 227 | 521612 | 531510.010299423 | -9898.01029942278 |
| 228 | 525562 | 520292.049328185 | 5269.95067181543 |
| 229 | 526519 | 516845.324985721 | 9673.6750142792 |
| 230 | 515713 | 507273.927660143 | 8439.07233985746 |
| 231 | 503454 | 496483.231594415 | 6970.76840558526 |
| 232 | 489301 | 491620.069075782 | -2319.06907578232 |
| 233 | 479020 | 479955.529452568 | -935.52945256763 |
| 234 | 475102 | 478783.725247313 | -3681.72524731292 |
| 235 | 523682 | 525915.924344341 | -2233.92434434069 |
| 236 | 551528 | 538458.159940583 | 13069.8400594174 |
| 237 | 531626 | 541829.730480122 | -10203.7304801224 |
| 238 | 511037 | 523102.05445634 | -12065.0544563403 |
| 239 | 492417 | 503347.395961512 | -10930.395961512 |
| 240 | 492188 | 492336.4688732 | -148.468873200356 |
| 241 | 492865 | 483835.430373604 | 9029.56962639635 |
| 242 | 480961 | 473189.981470974 | 7771.0185290256 |
| 243 | 461935 | 461234.577170394 | 700.422829605523 |
| 244 | 456608 | 448960.388462914 | 7647.61153708602 |
| 245 | 441977 | 446495.785303943 | -4518.78530394274 |
| 246 | 439148 | 441369.842884971 | -2221.84288497083 |
| 247 | 488180 | 489643.370624508 | -1463.37062450766 |
| 248 | 520564 | 503736.806071558 | 16827.1939284418 |
| 249 | 501492 | 508966.675468333 | -7474.6754683333 |
| 250 | 485025 | 492884.087649347 | -7859.08764934714 |
| 251 | 464196 | 477685.60082322 | -13489.6008232195 |
| 252 | 460170 | 465440.54543715 | -5270.54543714999 |
| 253 | 467037 | 452814.52054469 | 14222.4794553096 |
| 254 | 460070 | 447277.971027483 | 12792.0289725173 |
| 255 | 447988 | 440245.167882516 | 7742.83211748413 |
| 256 | 442867 | 436317.544007134 | 6549.45599286648 |
| 257 | 436087 | 433189.688906844 | 2897.31109315599 |
| 258 | 431328 | 436914.041685722 | -5586.0416857219 |
| 259 | 484015 | 483657.640994542 | 357.359005458304 |
| 260 | 509673 | 502429.475913664 | 7243.52408633556 |
| 261 | 512927 | 497962.427985524 | 14964.5720144765 |
| 262 | 502831 | 505363.675662956 | -2532.67566295643 |
| 263 | 470984 | 497796.643929557 | -26812.6439295569 |
| 264 | 471067 | 475824.882861314 | -4757.88286131434 |
| 265 | 476049 | 467164.459148597 | 8884.54085140285 |
| 266 | 474605 | 458252.420385713 | 16352.579614287 |
| 267 | 470439 | 456123.653622386 | 14315.3463776138 |
| 268 | 461251 | 460681.149948215 | 569.850051785295 |
| 269 | 454724 | 453744.753480902 | 979.246519097767 |
| 270 | 455626 | 456938.057575496 | -1312.05757549551 |
| 271 | 516847 | 510262.058413418 | 6584.94158658216 |
| 272 | 525192 | 537977.756499164 | -12785.7564991644 |
| 273 | 522975 | 516583.384261471 | 6391.61573852896 |
| 274 | 518585 | 515228.834239195 | 3356.16576080531 |
| 275 | 509239 | 512305.346873453 | -3066.34687345271 |
| 276 | 512238 | 516708.163088453 | -4470.16308845294 |
| 277 | 519164 | 512061.363309412 | 7102.63669058756 |
| 278 | 517009 | 504662.012748342 | 12346.9872516576 |
| 279 | 509933 | 500991.741219203 | 8941.25878079655 |
| 280 | 509127 | 501484.223492391 | 7642.7765076086 |
| 281 | 500857 | 503599.437906277 | -2742.43790627678 |
| 282 | 506971 | 505340.097772259 | 1630.90222774103 |
| 283 | 569323 | 564355.762137872 | 4967.23786212772 |
| 284 | 579714 | 591454.361238725 | -11740.3612387246 |
| 285 | 577992 | 574751.605996707 | 3240.39400329255 |
| 286 | 565464 | 572360.492049066 | -6896.49204906623 |
| 287 | 547344 | 560770.76218102 | -13426.7621810203 |
| 288 | 554788 | 555963.914827527 | -1175.91482752748 |
| 289 | 562325 | 555968.678823833 | 6356.32117616665 |
| 290 | 560854 | 548959.037911474 | 11894.9620885255 |
| 291 | 555332 | 545298.52159608 | 10033.4784039201 |
| 292 | 543599 | 547469.795390504 | -3870.79539050371 |
| 293 | 536662 | 538018.194833634 | -1356.19483363361 |
| 294 | 542722 | 541332.014002438 | 1389.9859975623 |
| 295 | 593530 | 600317.206065123 | -6787.20606512297 |
| 296 | 610763 | 614352.17145605 | -3589.17145605024 |
| 297 | 612613 | 605964.546518676 | 6648.45348132425 |
| 298 | 611324 | 605953.106812401 | 5370.89318759856 |
| 299 | 594167 | 606176.644769819 | -12009.6447698188 |
| 300 | 595454 | 604560.249336117 | -9106.2493361173 |
| 301 | 590865 | 598124.909751922 | -7259.90975192178 |
| 302 | 589379 | 578199.058452725 | 11179.9415472753 |
| 303 | 584428 | 573017.258758286 | 11410.7412417139 |
| 304 | 573100 | 574855.923730299 | -1755.92373029911 |
| 305 | 567456 | 567093.780822221 | 362.21917777881 |
| 306 | 569028 | 571878.516376112 | -2850.51637611212 |
| 307 | 620735 | 625692.622535116 | -4957.62253511592 |
| 308 | 628884 | 641147.381587166 | -12263.3815871663 |
| 309 | 628232 | 624258.06453707 | 3973.93546293036 |
| 310 | 612117 | 620285.79458643 | -8168.7945864303 |
| 311 | 595404 | 604260.815558894 | -8856.81555889372 |
| 312 | 597141 | 603589.173253838 | -6448.17325383751 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 313 | 597769.420541134 | 582808.645363648 | 612730.19571862 |
| 314 | 584480.055929086 | 563259.338905935 | 605700.772952236 |
| 315 | 566645.893671768 | 539943.5529543 | 593348.234389235 |
| 316 | 553777.01842245 | 521924.293444925 | 585629.743399975 |
| 317 | 544761.317805138 | 507913.727853819 | 581608.907756457 |
| 318 | 545916.698383991 | 504141.775546132 | 587691.62122185 |
| 319 | 599384.26309491 | 552699.396646595 | 646069.129543224 |
| 320 | 616461.239939383 | 564852.854914064 | 668069.624964701 |
| 321 | 610609.743258175 | 554044.091886339 | 667175.394630012 |
| 322 | 600262.49793967 | 538692.196056129 | 661832.799823211 |
| 323 | 590588.486687358 | 523956.69495256 | 657220.278422156 |
| 324 | 597813.626817866 | 526056.839748385 | 669570.413887348 |
