| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 335658 | 348542 | -12884 |
| 3 | 330664 | 335658.85172209 | -4994.85172209004 |
| 4 | 326814 | 330664.33019447 | -3850.33019446977 |
| 5 | 322900 | 326814.254533629 | -3914.25453362934 |
| 6 | 322310 | 322900.258759473 | -590.258759473159 |
| 7 | 385164 | 322310.039020213 | 62853.960979787 |
| 8 | 404861 | 385159.844915631 | 19701.1550843693 |
| 9 | 412136 | 404859.697616502 | 7276.30238349776 |
| 10 | 411057 | 412135.51898576 | -1078.51898575953 |
| 11 | 410040 | 411057.071297613 | -1017.07129761291 |
| 12 | 414980 | 410040.067235493 | 4939.93276450702 |
| 13 | 413626 | 414979.673436056 | -1353.67343605566 |
| 14 | 411062 | 413626.089487238 | -2564.08948723751 |
| 15 | 408352 | 411062.169504165 | -2710.16950416466 |
| 16 | 409780 | 408352.179161071 | 1427.82083892933 |
| 17 | 411318 | 409779.905611103 | 1538.09438889701 |
| 18 | 415555 | 411317.898321254 | 4237.10167874634 |
| 19 | 479481 | 415554.719898083 | 63926.2801019169 |
| 20 | 497826 | 479476.774027872 | 18349.225972128 |
| 21 | 501638 | 497824.786988428 | 3813.2130115722 |
| 22 | 497990 | 501637.747920075 | -3647.74792007479 |
| 23 | 499287 | 497990.241141531 | 1296.7588584692 |
| 24 | 506247 | 499286.914275212 | 6960.08572478773 |
| 25 | 510401 | 506246.539889882 | 4154.46011011803 |
| 26 | 508642 | 510400.725361266 | -1758.72536126606 |
| 27 | 501805 | 508642.116263989 | -6837.11626398948 |
| 28 | 495476 | 501805.451980981 | -6329.45198098064 |
| 29 | 490336 | 495476.418420837 | -5140.41842083749 |
| 30 | 490042 | 490336.339817442 | -294.339817441883 |
| 31 | 553155 | 490042.019457911 | 63112.9805420891 |
| 32 | 569999 | 553150.827792634 | 16848.1722073655 |
| 33 | 573170 | 569997.886218531 | 3172.11378146894 |
| 34 | 571687 | 573169.790301197 | -1482.79030119686 |
| 35 | 575453 | 571687.098022761 | 3765.90197723883 |
| 36 | 580177 | 575452.751047664 | 4724.24895233649 |
| 37 | 579849 | 580176.687694257 | -327.687694257125 |
| 38 | 574346 | 579849.021662438 | -5503.02166243771 |
| 39 | 563325 | 574346.36378804 | -11021.3637880404 |
| 40 | 555604 | 563325.72858887 | -7721.72858887003 |
| 41 | 545544 | 555604.510460013 | -10060.5104600134 |
| 42 | 545109 | 545544.665069776 | -435.665069776122 |
| 43 | 605181 | 545109.028800494 | 60071.9711995061 |
| 44 | 627856 | 605177.028824522 | 22678.9711754784 |
| 45 | 631421 | 627854.500762129 | 3566.49923787103 |
| 46 | 625671 | 631420.764229573 | -5749.76422957273 |
| 47 | 613577 | 625671.380099442 | -12094.3800994417 |
| 48 | 606463 | 613577.799522718 | -7114.79952271783 |
| 49 | 601676 | 606463.470337777 | -4787.47033777705 |
| 50 | 589121 | 601676.316485117 | -12555.3164851166 |
| 51 | 573559 | 589121.829993822 | -15562.8299938217 |
| 52 | 558487 | 573560.028811401 | -15073.0288114009 |
| 53 | 552148 | 558487.996432133 | -6339.99643213314 |
| 54 | 545720 | 552148.419117899 | -6428.41911789915 |
| 55 | 606569 | 545720.424963254 | 60848.5750367459 |
| 56 | 636067 | 606564.977485602 | 29502.0225143983 |
| 57 | 630704 | 636065.049710938 | -5361.04971093789 |
| 58 | 623275 | 630704.354402706 | -7429.35440270603 |
| 59 | 617771 | 623275.491132044 | -5504.49113204435 |
| 60 | 605401 | 617771.363885183 | -12370.3638851825 |
| 61 | 619393 | 605401.817767167 | 13991.1822328328 |
| 62 | 596019 | 619392.075085457 | -23373.0750854568 |
| 63 | 569977 | 596020.545122971 | -26043.5451229713 |
| 64 | 546213 | 569978.721659631 | -23765.7216596309 |
| 65 | 528492 | 546214.571079643 | -17722.5710796432 |
| 66 | 505944 | 528493.171585321 | -22549.1715853214 |
| 67 | 554910 | 505945.490657214 | 48964.5093427855 |
| 68 | 567831 | 554906.763105073 | 12924.2368949268 |
| 69 | 564021 | 567830.145617971 | -3809.14561797108 |
| 70 | 552800 | 564021.251811042 | -11221.2518110422 |
| 71 | 541102 | 552800.74180286 | -11698.7418028598 |
| 72 | 542378 | 541102.773368272 | 1275.22663172777 |
| 73 | 540380 | 542377.915698642 | -1997.91569864238 |
| 74 | 521219 | 540380.132076136 | -19161.1320761358 |
| 75 | 504652 | 521220.266684218 | -16568.2666842176 |
| 76 | 490626 | 504653.095277765 | -14027.0952777654 |
| 77 | 481686 | 490626.927288645 | -8940.92728864541 |
| 78 | 477930 | 481686.591057535 | -3756.59105753474 |
| 79 | 522605 | 477930.24833682 | 44674.7516631801 |
| 80 | 531432 | 522602.046687918 | 8829.95331208158 |
| 81 | 532355 | 531431.416278618 | 923.583721382311 |
| 82 | 539954 | 532354.938944687 | 7599.06105531333 |
| 83 | 524987 | 539953.497649165 | -14966.4976491645 |
| 84 | 533307 | 524987.989389682 | 8319.01061031828 |
| 85 | 530541 | 533306.450055487 | -2765.4500554871 |
| 86 | 508392 | 530541.1828155 | -22149.1828155 |
| 87 | 495208 | 508393.464215172 | -13185.4642151723 |
| 88 | 482223 | 495208.871650973 | -12985.8716509733 |
| 89 | 470495 | 482223.858456515 | -11728.8584565154 |
| 90 | 466106 | 470495.775359193 | -4389.77535919269 |
| 91 | 515037 | 466106.29019471 | 48930.70980529 |
| 92 | 517752 | 515033.765339458 | 2718.23466054205 |
| 93 | 515565 | 517751.820305766 | -2186.82030576636 |
| 94 | 510727 | 515565.144564045 | -4838.14456404542 |
| 95 | 499725 | 510727.319835036 | -11002.3198350357 |
| 96 | 498369 | 499725.727329932 | -1356.7273299321 |
| 97 | 493756 | 498369.089689121 | -4613.08968912117 |
| 98 | 476141 | 493756.304957342 | -17615.3049573418 |
| 99 | 458458 | 476142.164494284 | -17684.164494284 |
| 100 | 443182 | 458459.169046379 | -15277.1690463788 |
| 101 | 429597 | 443183.009927224 | -13586.0099272237 |
| 102 | 424476 | 429597.898129833 | -5121.89812983316 |
| 103 | 476257 | 424476.338593122 | 51780.6614068783 |
| 104 | 480555 | 476253.576937818 | 4301.42306218238 |
| 105 | 469762 | 480554.715645992 | -10792.7156459918 |
| 106 | 459820 | 469762.713473636 | -9942.71347363607 |
| 107 | 451028 | 459820.657282575 | -8792.65728257532 |
| 108 | 450065 | 451028.581255855 | -963.581255855155 |
| 109 | 444385 | 450065.063699429 | -5680.06369942887 |
| 110 | 428846 | 444385.375491751 | -15539.3754917515 |
| 111 | 421020 | 428847.027260895 | -7827.02726089506 |
| 112 | 399778 | 421020.517420989 | -21242.5174209886 |
| 113 | 389005 | 399779.404278278 | -10774.4042782782 |
| 114 | 384018 | 389005.712263127 | -4987.71226312721 |
| 115 | 431933 | 384018.329722502 | 47914.6702774982 |
| 116 | 445844 | 431929.832506744 | 13914.1674932562 |
| 117 | 431464 | 445843.080176667 | -14379.0801766673 |
| 118 | 423263 | 431464.950557298 | -8201.9505572975 |
| 119 | 415881 | 423263.542206028 | -7382.54220602848 |
| 120 | 416208 | 415881.488037432 | 326.511962567689 |
| 121 | 413491 | 416207.978415286 | -2716.97841528628 |
| 122 | 399153 | 413491.179611187 | -14338.1796111871 |
| 123 | 385939 | 399153.947853485 | -13214.9478534854 |
| 124 | 373917 | 385939.873600047 | -12022.873600047 |
| 125 | 364635 | 373917.79479564 | -9282.7947956404 |
| 126 | 364696 | 364635.613657357 | 60.3863426431781 |
| 127 | 418358 | 364695.996008042 | 53662.0039919576 |
| 128 | 428212 | 418354.452567976 | 9857.54743202397 |
| 129 | 423730 | 428211.348347493 | -4481.34834749287 |
| 130 | 420677 | 423730.296248322 | -3053.296248322 |
| 131 | 417428 | 420677.201844137 | -3249.2018441371 |
| 132 | 423245 | 417428.214794861 | 5816.78520513925 |
| 133 | 423113 | 423244.615470005 | -131.615470005258 |
| 134 | 418873 | 423113.008700699 | -4240.00870069879 |
| 135 | 405733 | 418873.280294091 | -13140.2802940913 |
| 136 | 397812 | 405733.868664002 | -7921.86866400158 |
| 137 | 389918 | 397812.523690666 | -7894.52369066561 |
| 138 | 391116 | 389918.521882973 | 1197.47811702749 |
| 139 | 443814 | 391115.92083836 | 52698.0791616396 |
| 140 | 460373 | 443810.516290118 | 16562.4837098825 |
| 141 | 455422 | 460371.90510453 | -4949.90510452952 |
| 142 | 456288 | 455422.327223185 | 865.67277681455 |
| 143 | 452233 | 456287.942773003 | -4054.94277300319 |
| 144 | 459256 | 452233.268059945 | 7022.7319400548 |
| 145 | 461146 | 459255.535748531 | 1890.46425146895 |
| 146 | 451391 | 461145.875027153 | -9754.87502715277 |
| 147 | 443101 | 451391.644865146 | -8290.64486514643 |
| 148 | 438810 | 443101.54806934 | -4291.54806933971 |
| 149 | 430457 | 438810.283701202 | -8353.28370120237 |
| 150 | 435721 | 430457.552210203 | 5263.44778979721 |
| 151 | 488280 | 435720.65204946 | 52559.3479505396 |
| 152 | 505814 | 488276.525461216 | 17537.4745387837 |
| 153 | 502338 | 505812.840650848 | -3474.84065084846 |
| 154 | 500910 | 502338.229711157 | -1428.22971115663 |
| 155 | 501434 | 500910.094415926 | 523.905584073684 |
| 156 | 515476 | 501433.965366194 | 14042.0346338062 |
| 157 | 520862 | 515475.071723759 | 5386.92827624083 |
| 158 | 519517 | 520861.643886541 | -1344.64388654061 |
| 159 | 511805 | 519517.088890321 | -7712.08889032144 |
| 160 | 508607 | 511805.509822762 | -3198.50982276222 |
| 161 | 505327 | 508607.211443765 | -3280.21144376526 |
| 162 | 511435 | 505327.216844811 | 6107.78315518884 |
| 163 | 570158 | 511434.596233015 | 58723.403766985 |
| 164 | 591665 | 570154.117974217 | 21510.8820257833 |
| 165 | 593572 | 591663.577980953 | 1908.42201904673 |
| 166 | 586346 | 593571.873840019 | -7225.87384001934 |
| 167 | 586063 | 586346.477680563 | -283.477680562646 |
| 168 | 591504 | 586063.018739848 | 5440.98126015195 |
| 169 | 594033 | 591503.640313262 | 2529.35968673788 |
| 170 | 585597 | 594032.832791717 | -8435.83279171691 |
| 171 | 572450 | 585597.557667272 | -13147.5576672723 |
| 172 | 562917 | 572450.869145087 | -9533.86914508662 |
| 173 | 554675 | 562917.630255119 | -8242.63025511906 |
| 174 | 553997 | 554675.54489524 | -678.544895239756 |
| 175 | 601310 | 553997.044856541 | 47312.9551434588 |
| 176 | 622255 | 601306.872284303 | 20948.1277156972 |
| 177 | 616735 | 622253.615182931 | -5518.61518293072 |
| 178 | 606480 | 616735.364818881 | -10255.3648188806 |
| 179 | 595079 | 606480.677951006 | -11401.6779510058 |
| 180 | 598588 | 595079.753730284 | 3508.2462697163 |
| 181 | 599917 | 598587.768080499 | 1329.23191950051 |
| 182 | 591573 | 599916.912128517 | -8343.91212851682 |
| 183 | 575489 | 591573.551590677 | -16084.5515906767 |
| 184 | 567223 | 575490.06330083 | -8267.06330083031 |
| 185 | 555338 | 567223.546510434 | -11885.5465104341 |
| 186 | 555252 | 555338.785717364 | -86.7857173638185 |
| 187 | 608249 | 555252.00573714 | 52996.9942628599 |
| 188 | 630859 | 608245.496529749 | 22613.5034702515 |
| 189 | 628632 | 630857.50509 | -2225.50509000011 |
| 190 | 624435 | 628632.147121379 | -4197.14712137892 |
| 191 | 609670 | 624435.277460643 | -14765.2774606425 |
| 192 | 615830 | 609670.976087626 | 6159.02391237358 |
| 193 | 621170 | 615829.592845644 | 5340.40715435578 |
| 194 | 604212 | 621169.646961911 | -16957.6469619107 |
| 195 | 584348 | 604213.121018512 | -19865.1210185123 |
| 196 | 573717 | 584349.313222787 | -10632.3132227875 |
| 197 | 555234 | 573717.702869919 | -18483.7028699192 |
| 198 | 544897 | 555235.221901431 | -10338.2219014312 |
| 199 | 598866 | 544897.683428436 | 53968.3165715643 |
| 200 | 620081 | 598862.432318582 | 21218.5676814178 |
| 201 | 607699 | 620079.597304966 | -12380.5973049663 |
| 202 | 589960 | 607699.818443668 | -17739.8184436676 |
| 203 | 578665 | 589961.172725492 | -11296.1727254923 |
| 204 | 580166 | 578665.746755654 | 1500.25324434624 |
| 205 | 579457 | 580165.900822817 | -708.900822816766 |
| 206 | 571560 | 579457.046863279 | -7897.04686327931 |
| 207 | 560460 | 571560.522049772 | -11100.5220497717 |
| 208 | 551397 | 560460.733821782 | -9063.73382178217 |
| 209 | 536763 | 551397.599175902 | -14634.5991759015 |
| 210 | 540562 | 536763.967448882 | 3798.03255111782 |
| 211 | 588184 | 540561.748923609 | 47622.2510763911 |
| 212 | 607049 | 588180.851837689 | 18868.1481623114 |
| 213 | 598968 | 607047.752684059 | -8079.75268405862 |
| 214 | 577644 | 598968.534127898 | -21324.5341278984 |
| 215 | 562640 | 577645.409700153 | -15005.4097001534 |
| 216 | 565867 | 562640.991962039 | 3226.00803796086 |
| 217 | 561274 | 565866.786738411 | -4592.78673841129 |
| 218 | 554144 | 561274.303615175 | -7130.30361517542 |
| 219 | 539900 | 554144.471362705 | -14244.4713627055 |
| 220 | 526271 | 539900.941658718 | -13629.9416587178 |
| 221 | 511841 | 526271.901034026 | -14430.9010340264 |
| 222 | 505282 | 511841.953983017 | -6559.95398301695 |
| 223 | 554083 | 505282.433658624 | 48800.5663413756 |
| 224 | 584225 | 554079.773942847 | 30145.2260571531 |
| 225 | 568858 | 584223.007190706 | -15365.0071907061 |
| 226 | 539516 | 568859.015733937 | -29343.0157339366 |
| 227 | 521612 | 539517.939777607 | -17905.9397776071 |
| 228 | 525562 | 521613.183707269 | 3948.81629273115 |
| 229 | 526519 | 525561.738955754 | 957.261044246028 |
| 230 | 515713 | 526518.936718381 | -10805.9367183811 |
| 231 | 503454 | 515713.714347641 | -12259.714347641 |
| 232 | 489301 | 503454.810452463 | -14153.8104524626 |
| 233 | 479020 | 489301.935665401 | -10281.9356654006 |
| 234 | 475102 | 479020.679707524 | -3918.67970752367 |
| 235 | 523682 | 475102.259052008 | 48579.740947992 |
| 236 | 551528 | 523678.788540943 | 27849.2114590573 |
| 237 | 531626 | 551526.158973254 | -19900.1589732544 |
| 238 | 511037 | 531627.31553904 | -20590.3155390401 |
| 239 | 492417 | 511038.361163194 | -18621.3611631935 |
| 240 | 492188 | 492418.231001603 | -230.231001602719 |
| 241 | 492865 | 492188.015219872 | 676.984780128056 |
| 242 | 480961 | 492864.955246593 | -11903.9552465933 |
| 243 | 461935 | 480961.786934309 | -19026.7869343094 |
| 244 | 456608 | 461936.257803068 | -5328.2578030685 |
| 245 | 441977 | 456608.352234933 | -14631.3522349327 |
| 246 | 439148 | 441977.967234237 | -2829.96723423671 |
| 247 | 488180 | 439148.187080535 | 49031.8129194654 |
| 248 | 520564 | 488176.758655838 | 32387.2413441617 |
| 249 | 501492 | 520561.858977888 | -19069.8589778882 |
| 250 | 485025 | 501493.26065043 | -16468.2606504305 |
| 251 | 464196 | 485026.08866667 | -20830.0886666704 |
| 252 | 460170 | 464197.377013866 | -4027.37701386644 |
| 253 | 467037 | 460170.266237657 | 6866.73376234341 |
| 254 | 460070 | 467036.546061097 | -6966.54606109654 |
| 255 | 447988 | 460070.460537191 | -12082.4605371912 |
| 256 | 442867 | 447988.798734752 | -5121.79873475176 |
| 257 | 436087 | 442867.338586551 | -6780.33858655102 |
| 258 | 431328 | 436087.448227581 | -4759.44822758087 |
| 259 | 484015 | 431328.31463266 | 52686.68536734 |
| 260 | 509673 | 484011.517043327 | 25661.4829566733 |
| 261 | 512927 | 509671.303597338 | 3255.69640266203 |
| 262 | 502831 | 512926.784775804 | -10095.7847758037 |
| 263 | 470984 | 502831.667401654 | -31847.667401654 |
| 264 | 471067 | 470986.105352518 | 80.8946474819095 |
| 265 | 476049 | 471066.994652301 | 4982.00534769933 |
| 266 | 474605 | 476048.670654765 | -1443.67065476504 |
| 267 | 470439 | 474605.09543668 | -4166.09543668019 |
| 268 | 461251 | 470439.27540791 | -9188.27540791 |
| 269 | 454724 | 461251.607408967 | -6527.60740896728 |
| 270 | 455626 | 454724.431520291 | 901.568479709269 |
| 271 | 516847 | 455625.940400047 | 61221.0595999527 |
| 272 | 525192 | 516842.952861779 | 8349.04713822092 |
| 273 | 522975 | 525191.448069863 | -2216.44806986349 |
| 274 | 518585 | 522975.146522647 | -4390.14652264689 |
| 275 | 509239 | 518585.290219247 | -9346.29021924653 |
| 276 | 512238 | 509239.617854846 | 2998.38214515371 |
| 277 | 519164 | 512237.801786067 | 6926.19821393257 |
| 278 | 517009 | 519163.542130082 | -2154.54213008238 |
| 279 | 509933 | 517009.142430233 | -7076.1424302333 |
| 280 | 509127 | 509933.467782274 | -806.46778227418 |
| 281 | 500857 | 509127.053313135 | -8270.05331313453 |
| 282 | 506971 | 500857.546708095 | 6113.45329190523 |
| 283 | 569323 | 506970.595858179 | 62352.4041418205 |
| 284 | 579714 | 569318.878072029 | 10395.1219279708 |
| 285 | 577992 | 579713.312810077 | -1721.31281007652 |
| 286 | 565464 | 577992.113790759 | -12528.1137907595 |
| 287 | 547344 | 565464.828195534 | -18120.8281955342 |
| 288 | 554788 | 547345.197912889 | 7442.80208711082 |
| 289 | 562325 | 554787.50797897 | 7537.49202102993 |
| 290 | 560854 | 562324.501719306 | -1470.50171930622 |
| 291 | 555332 | 560854.0972104 | -5522.09721040027 |
| 292 | 543599 | 555332.365049067 | -11733.3650490668 |
| 293 | 536662 | 543599.77565711 | -6937.7756571098 |
| 294 | 542722 | 536662.458635267 | 6059.54136473278 |
| 295 | 593530 | 542721.599422133 | 50808.4005778668 |
| 296 | 610763 | 593526.641211027 | 17236.3587889733 |
| 297 | 612613 | 610761.860556696 | 1851.13944330427 |
| 298 | 611324 | 612612.877626796 | -1288.87762679637 |
| 299 | 594167 | 611324.085203783 | -17157.0852037835 |
| 300 | 595454 | 594168.134202768 | 1285.86579723156 |
| 301 | 590865 | 595453.914995319 | -4588.91499531944 |
| 302 | 589379 | 590865.303359226 | -1486.30335922621 |
| 303 | 584428 | 589379.098254999 | -4951.09825499868 |
| 304 | 573100 | 584428.327302061 | -11328.327302061 |
| 305 | 567456 | 573100.748881295 | -5644.74888129509 |
| 306 | 569028 | 567456.373157196 | 1571.6268428039 |
| 307 | 620735 | 569027.896104525 | 51707.1038954749 |
| 308 | 628884 | 620731.581800481 | 8152.41819951881 |
| 309 | 628232 | 628883.461068405 | -651.461068405188 |
| 310 | 612117 | 628232.043066112 | -16115.0430661116 |
| 311 | 595404 | 612118.065316529 | -16714.0653165291 |
| 312 | 597141 | 595405.10491607 | 1735.89508393011 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 313 | 597140.885245251 | 559906.021178547 | 634375.749311954 |
| 314 | 597140.885245251 | 544484.575992064 | 649797.194498438 |
| 315 | 597140.885245251 | 532651.051114059 | 661630.719376442 |
| 316 | 597140.885245251 | 522674.849306912 | 671606.92118359 |
| 317 | 597140.885245251 | 513885.601265966 | 680396.169224535 |
| 318 | 597140.885245251 | 505939.492094857 | 688342.278395645 |
| 319 | 597140.885245251 | 498632.27691748 | 695649.493573021 |
| 320 | 597140.885245251 | 491830.877568984 | 702450.892921518 |
| 321 | 597140.885245251 | 485442.856977618 | 708838.913512883 |
| 322 | 597140.885245251 | 479400.911910031 | 714880.85858047 |
| 323 | 597140.885245251 | 473654.233646467 | 720627.536844035 |
| 324 | 597140.885245251 | 468163.348731403 | 726118.421759098 |
