| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.899203540092405 |
| beta | 0.0726761241482413 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 456.288 | 438.232799946581 | 18.0552000534188 |
| 14 | 452.233 | 451.475405799362 | 0.757594200638096 |
| 15 | 459.256 | 460.1411608244 | -0.885160824399975 |
| 16 | 461.146 | 461.975273899563 | -0.829273899562565 |
| 17 | 451.391 | 452.125613791835 | -0.734613791835272 |
| 18 | 443.101 | 443.675981582031 | -0.574981582030716 |
| 19 | 438.81 | 438.518815812855 | 0.291184187144779 |
| 20 | 430.457 | 432.28324677249 | -1.82624677248953 |
| 21 | 435.721 | 433.099663276979 | 2.62133672302122 |
| 22 | 488.28 | 489.452168606836 | -1.17216860683641 |
| 23 | 505.814 | 506.323480226681 | -0.50948022668058 |
| 24 | 502.338 | 502.275097064447 | 0.0629029355530406 |
| 25 | 500.91 | 506.029080529306 | -5.11908052930647 |
| 26 | 501.434 | 496.172308306761 | 5.26169169323919 |
| 27 | 515.476 | 508.499479949869 | 6.97652005013055 |
| 28 | 520.862 | 517.699143384672 | 3.16285661532822 |
| 29 | 519.517 | 512.000316690867 | 7.51668330913287 |
| 30 | 511.805 | 512.077151973217 | -0.272151973217376 |
| 31 | 508.607 | 508.39016977568 | 0.21683022432029 |
| 32 | 505.327 | 502.980024437841 | 2.34697556215872 |
| 33 | 511.435 | 509.375753205508 | 2.05924679449157 |
| 34 | 570.158 | 566.182155738784 | 3.97584426121591 |
| 35 | 591.665 | 589.427503636124 | 2.23749636387595 |
| 36 | 593.572 | 589.764550630102 | 3.80744936989799 |
| 37 | 586.346 | 598.465671262663 | -12.1196712626632 |
| 38 | 586.063 | 585.005148505945 | 1.0578514940554 |
| 39 | 591.504 | 595.095197535039 | -3.59119753503921 |
| 40 | 594.033 | 595.087457898479 | -1.05445789847874 |
| 41 | 585.597 | 586.439182994956 | -0.842182994955692 |
| 42 | 572.45 | 578.072277531943 | -5.62227753194338 |
| 43 | 562.917 | 569.131765550474 | -6.21476555047445 |
| 44 | 554.675 | 557.240743192924 | -2.56574319292429 |
| 45 | 553.997 | 557.956612127239 | -3.95961212723876 |
| 46 | 601.31 | 607.917361743316 | -6.60736174331578 |
| 47 | 622.255 | 619.152754954679 | 3.10224504532096 |
| 48 | 616.735 | 618.163865531989 | -1.42886553198946 |
| 49 | 606.48 | 617.947112226068 | -11.4671122260676 |
| 50 | 595.079 | 603.840301986943 | -8.76130198694341 |
| 51 | 598.588 | 601.429319391149 | -2.84131939114911 |
| 52 | 599.917 | 599.197565849003 | 0.719434150997245 |
| 53 | 591.573 | 589.127701112271 | 2.44529888772945 |
| 54 | 575.489 | 580.411856992112 | -4.92285699211197 |
| 55 | 567.223 | 569.263015916167 | -2.04001591616702 |
| 56 | 555.338 | 558.989044430272 | -3.6510444302719 |
| 57 | 555.252 | 556.01287716391 | -0.760877163910436 |
| 58 | 608.249 | 606.216463702 | 2.03253629800031 |
| 59 | 630.859 | 624.397607480577 | 6.46139251942293 |
| 60 | 628.632 | 624.390107521047 | 4.2418924789531 |
| 61 | 624.435 | 627.048839829426 | -2.61383982942596 |
| 62 | 609.67 | 620.542366142333 | -10.8723661423334 |
| 63 | 615.83 | 616.05856768276 | -0.228567682760286 |
| 64 | 621.17 | 615.934613252821 | 5.23538674717895 |
| 65 | 604.212 | 609.794082646891 | -5.58208264689108 |
| 66 | 584.348 | 592.287322692678 | -7.93932269267782 |
| 67 | 573.717 | 577.689535315215 | -3.9725353152146 |
| 68 | 555.234 | 564.362048376862 | -9.12804837686235 |
| 69 | 544.897 | 555.240931557018 | -10.3439315570183 |
| 70 | 598.866 | 594.971382379504 | 3.89461762049564 |
| 71 | 620.081 | 613.257432019352 | 6.82356798064802 |
| 72 | 607.699 | 611.359654879308 | -3.66065487930791 |
| 73 | 589.96 | 603.712689756529 | -13.7526897565289 |
| 74 | 578.665 | 583.121096402722 | -4.45609640272221 |
| 75 | 580.166 | 582.662398706214 | -2.49639870621411 |
| 76 | 579.457 | 578.084456767772 | 1.3725432322276 |
| 77 | 571.56 | 564.162148640769 | 7.39785135923091 |
| 78 | 560.46 | 555.719704345916 | 4.74029565408421 |
| 79 | 551.397 | 551.382248323603 | 0.0147516763965996 |
| 80 | 536.763 | 539.839993733092 | -3.07699373309219 |
| 81 | 540.562 | 535.152397406963 | 5.40960259303654 |
| 82 | 588.184 | 590.628128066151 | -2.4441280661506 |
| 83 | 607.049 | 603.239792768981 | 3.80920723101849 |
| 84 | 598.968 | 597.10793865085 | 1.86006134914976 |
| 85 | 577.644 | 593.30198141709 | -15.6579814170898 |
| 86 | 562.64 | 571.703696451135 | -9.06369645113546 |
| 87 | 565.867 | 566.767739207471 | -0.900739207471133 |
| 88 | 561.274 | 563.587253077973 | -2.31325307797329 |
| 89 | 554.144 | 546.289781973768 | 7.85421802623159 |
| 90 | 539.9 | 537.351444226652 | 2.54855577334831 |
| 91 | 526.271 | 529.785230494937 | -3.51423049493735 |
| 92 | 511.841 | 513.745825103733 | -1.90482510373272 |
| 93 | 505.282 | 510.032027234138 | -4.75002723413758 |
| 94 | 554.083 | 553.980977757663 | 0.102022242337398 |
| 95 | 584.225 | 568.079279632471 | 16.1457203675287 |
| 96 | 568.858 | 572.21700941697 | -3.35900941697003 |
| 97 | 539.516 | 560.984233648855 | -21.4682336488555 |
| 98 | 521.612 | 533.47827132449 | -11.8662713244898 |
| 99 | 525.562 | 525.314117434591 | 0.247882565409441 |
| 100 | 526.519 | 521.568254234822 | 4.95074576517823 |
| 101 | 515.713 | 510.846303149188 | 4.86669685081154 |
| 102 | 503.454 | 497.510408877225 | 5.94359112277544 |
| 103 | 489.301 | 491.431408314737 | -2.13040831473717 |
| 104 | 479.02 | 475.934489498794 | 3.08551050120593 |
| 105 | 475.102 | 475.883280741204 | -0.78128074120383 |
| 106 | 523.682 | 523.61141961983 | 0.0705803801697584 |
| 107 | 551.528 | 539.017950138675 | 12.5100498613247 |
| 108 | 531.626 | 537.402224371416 | -5.77622437141622 |
| 109 | 511.037 | 521.494328101054 | -10.4573281010542 |
| 110 | 492.417 | 504.900617865214 | -12.4836178652145 |
| 111 | 492.188 | 497.405426652967 | -5.21742665296676 |
| 112 | 492.865 | 488.865027673698 | 3.9999723263017 |
| 113 | 480.961 | 476.863389926947 | 4.09761007305337 |
| 114 | 461.935 | 462.477940942065 | -0.542940942064774 |
| 115 | 456.608 | 448.861961988604 | 7.74603801139619 |
| 116 | 441.977 | 442.526721560666 | -0.54972156066566 |
| 117 | 439.148 | 438.334372433163 | 0.81362756683734 |
| 118 | 488.18 | 487.204183391201 | 0.975816608798652 |
| 119 | 520.564 | 504.359378071743 | 16.2046219282574 |
| 120 | 501.492 | 504.144893537288 | -2.65289353728787 |
| 121 | 485.025 | 490.700041015917 | -5.67504101591697 |
| 122 | 464.196 | 478.641235177104 | -14.4452351771038 |
| 123 | 460.17 | 470.42526191676 | -10.2552619167604 |
| 124 | 467.037 | 458.265383953583 | 8.77161604641719 |
| 125 | 460.07 | 450.857575718522 | 9.21242428147798 |
| 126 | 447.988 | 441.231200030912 | 6.75679996908815 |
| 127 | 442.867 | 436.119281703376 | 6.74771829662433 |
| 128 | 436.087 | 429.089532658344 | 6.99746734165569 |
| 129 | 431.328 | 433.353644012171 | -2.02564401217131 |
| 130 | 484.015 | 481.033752552218 | 2.9812474477821 |
| 131 | 509.673 | 503.005336128245 | 6.66766387175505 |
| 132 | 512.927 | 493.169256867637 | 19.7577431323631 |
| 133 | 502.831 | 501.890898112525 | 0.940101887474782 |
| 134 | 470.984 | 497.648143114661 | -26.6641431146606 |
| 135 | 471.067 | 480.820401192114 | -9.75340119211432 |
| 136 | 476.049 | 473.015619164097 | 3.03338083590324 |
| 137 | 474.605 | 462.103383201319 | 12.5016167986806 |
| 138 | 470.439 | 457.013075406528 | 13.4259245934724 |
| 139 | 461.251 | 460.158906208153 | 1.09209379184693 |
| 140 | 454.724 | 449.960938850863 | 4.76306114913666 |
| 141 | 455.626 | 453.052512160678 | 2.57348783932213 |
| 142 | 516.847 | 507.419555028642 | 9.4274449713576 |
| 143 | 525.192 | 538.027124771798 | -12.835124771798 |
| 144 | 522.975 | 513.166947891289 | 9.80805210871142 |
| 145 | 518.585 | 511.588266886325 | 6.99673311367468 |
| 146 | 509.239 | 510.948277371083 | -1.70927737108309 |
| 147 | 512.238 | 520.834429556373 | -8.59642955637298 |
| 148 | 519.164 | 518.004319272618 | 1.15968072738201 |
| 149 | 517.009 | 508.884619118398 | 8.12438088160201 |
| 150 | 509.933 | 502.188406040737 | 7.74459395926255 |
| 151 | 509.127 | 500.84803301228 | 8.2789669877198 |
| 152 | 500.857 | 499.817889937031 | 1.03911006296875 |
| 153 | 506.971 | 501.432151414213 | 5.53884858578738 |
| 154 | 569.323 | 561.442279371202 | 7.88072062879814 |
| 155 | 579.714 | 590.599729077003 | -10.8857290770032 |
| 156 | 577.992 | 572.086890195588 | 5.90510980441229 |
| 157 | 565.464 | 568.772321339048 | -3.30832133904835 |
| 158 | 547.344 | 559.37203624865 | -12.0280362486499 |
| 159 | 554.788 | 559.9945668951 | -5.2065668951002 |
| 160 | 562.325 | 562.126787682345 | 0.198212317654907 |
| 161 | 560.854 | 553.712489472273 | 7.14151052772718 |
| 162 | 555.332 | 546.897904142683 | 8.4340958573174 |
| 163 | 543.599 | 547.080165380537 | -3.48116538053648 |
| 164 | 536.662 | 534.825754471712 | 1.83624552828769 |
| 165 | 542.722 | 537.742690770371 | 4.97930922962917 |
| 166 | 593.53 | 597.581495196113 | -4.05149519611325 |
| 167 | 610.763 | 613.433848523816 | -2.67084852381549 |
| 168 | 612.613 | 603.853150067609 | 8.75984993239081 |
| 169 | 611.324 | 602.216285090016 | 9.10771490998354 |
| 170 | 594.167 | 603.952415814623 | -9.78541581462343 |
| 171 | 595.454 | 608.276443770877 | -12.8224437708772 |
| 172 | 590.865 | 604.604866498507 | -13.7398664985075 |
| 173 | 589.379 | 583.946038925935 | 5.43296107406547 |
| 174 | 584.428 | 575.202533696 | 9.22546630399984 |
| 175 | 573.1 | 574.424224236608 | -1.32422423660773 |
| 176 | 567.456 | 564.315118441442 | 3.14088155855779 |
| 177 | 569.028 | 568.477056361233 | 0.550943638766967 |
| 178 | 620.735 | 622.889247771556 | -2.15424777155556 |
| 179 | 628.884 | 640.176425424625 | -11.2924254246248 |
| 180 | 628.232 | 623.021571398708 | 5.21042860129228 |
| 181 | 612.117 | 617.022383801768 | -4.90538380176827 |
| 182 | 595.404 | 602.132027109441 | -6.72802710944075 |
| 183 | 597.141 | 606.977451664425 | -9.83645166442466 |
| 184 | 593.408 | 604.171856079604 | -10.7638560796042 |
| 185 | 590.072 | 586.589544884868 | 3.48245511513187 |
| 186 | 579.799 | 574.814866231564 | 4.98413376843621 |
| 187 | 574.205 | 567.222647675145 | 6.98235232485513 |
| 188 | 572.775 | 563.639035376407 | 9.13596462359249 |
| 189 | 572.942 | 571.928622670674 | 1.01337732932598 |
| 190 | 619.567 | 625.512088740155 | -5.94508874015537 |
| 191 | 625.809 | 637.2498253436 | -11.4408253436001 |
| 192 | 619.916 | 620.395653348162 | -0.479653348161719 |
| 193 | 587.625 | 606.659129908907 | -19.0341299089074 |
| 194 | 565.742 | 576.355960343685 | -10.613960343685 |
| 195 | 557.274 | 574.615395245972 | -17.3413952459723 |
| 196 | 560.576 | 561.698969424592 | -1.12296942459216 |
| 197 | 548.854 | 551.582914055442 | -2.72891405544215 |
| 198 | 531.673 | 531.32955595116 | 0.343444048839842 |
| 199 | 525.919 | 516.417795942811 | 9.50120405718917 |
| 200 | 511.038 | 512.132798893109 | -1.09479889310933 |
| 201 | 498.662 | 506.552110907479 | -7.8901109074788 |
| 202 | 555.362 | 546.994283077102 | 8.36771692289824 |
| 203 | 564.591 | 567.549688235404 | -2.95868823540377 |
| 204 | 541.657 | 556.483338104752 | -14.8263381047522 |
| 205 | 527.07 | 524.094241346788 | 2.97575865321164 |
| 206 | 509.846 | 511.987766775687 | -2.14176677568696 |
| 207 | 514.258 | 515.29759167346 | -1.03959167345965 |
| 208 | 516.922 | 517.850163514505 | -0.928163514505172 |
| 209 | 507.561 | 506.935733736386 | 0.625266263614094 |
| 210 | 492.622 | 489.415676020893 | 3.2063239791068 |
| 211 | 490.243 | 477.595915323189 | 12.6470846768111 |
| 212 | 469.357 | 474.871868704228 | -5.51486870422832 |
| 213 | 477.58 | 464.143043590932 | 13.4369564090682 |
| 214 | 528.379 | 526.306407616408 | 2.07259238359222 |
| 215 | 533.59 | 540.553248551442 | -6.96324855144178 |
| 216 | 517.945 | 524.921761573102 | -6.97676157310195 |
| 217 | 506.174 | 502.130389968794 | 4.04361003120607 |
| 218 | 501.866 | 491.283057264677 | 10.5829427353234 |
| 219 | 516.141 | 507.792403683336 | 8.34859631666438 |
| 220 | 528.222 | 521.057945279555 | 7.1640547204446 |
| 221 | 532.638 | 520.36532486779 | 12.2726751322103 |
| 222 | 536.322 | 517.128663265785 | 19.193336734215 |
| 223 | 536.535 | 525.230680960761 | 11.304319039239 |
| 224 | 523.597 | 523.975408213961 | -0.378408213961279 |
| 225 | 536.214 | 524.618108449385 | 11.5958915506154 |
| 226 | 586.57 | 588.702703040951 | -2.13270304095079 |
| 227 | 596.594 | 602.704738234382 | -6.11073823438164 |
| 228 | 580.523 | 592.341573140875 | -11.8185731408753 |
| 229 | 564.478 | 570.493930106294 | -6.01593010629426 |
| 230 | 557.56 | 554.78945584639 | 2.77054415360999 |
| 231 | 575.093 | 567.067397400979 | 8.02560259902077 |
| 232 | 580.112 | 582.920742267457 | -2.80874226745686 |
| 233 | 574.761 | 576.121387768952 | -1.36038776895225 |
| 234 | 563.25 | 562.778386126795 | 0.471613873205229 |
| 235 | 551.531 | 553.482083137546 | -1.95108313754588 |
| 236 | 537.034 | 538.495183265509 | -1.46118326550936 |
| 237 | 544.686 | 538.665710324539 | 6.02028967546119 |
| 238 | 600.991 | 595.283036109768 | 5.70796389023235 |
| 239 | 604.378 | 615.37697328059 | -10.9989732805896 |
| 240 | 586.111 | 599.166029526849 | -13.0550295268491 |
| 241 | 563.668 | 575.833712357796 | -12.1657123577958 |
| 242 | 548.604 | 554.125351443082 | -5.52135144308181 |
| 243 | 551.174 | 557.575375641522 | -6.40137564152246 |
| 244 | 555.654 | 556.519548134066 | -0.865548134066103 |
| 245 | 547.97 | 548.896179783457 | -0.926179783456519 |
| 246 | 540.324 | 533.439324641575 | 6.88467535842528 |
| 247 | 530.577 | 527.395613419255 | 3.18138658074474 |
| 248 | 520.579 | 515.138782238703 | 5.44021776129705 |
| 249 | 518.654 | 520.785743990519 | -2.13174399051854 |
| 250 | 572.273 | 568.025074860917 | 4.24792513908346 |
| 251 | 581.302 | 583.010549395917 | -1.70854939591663 |
| 252 | 563.28 | 573.441889034151 | -10.1618890341514 |
| 253 | 547.612 | 551.485347145825 | -3.87334714582494 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 254 | 537.129762804494 | 522.547421755807 | 551.712103853181 |
| 255 | 545.043250588145 | 524.782900770598 | 565.303600405693 |
| 256 | 550.307236598721 | 525.087506152801 | 575.52696704464 |
| 257 | 543.518306917293 | 513.666673080785 | 573.369940753802 |
| 258 | 529.804355071733 | 495.488851626435 | 564.119858517031 |
| 259 | 516.869495746011 | 478.176443515758 | 555.562547976265 |
| 260 | 501.44458181494 | 458.412827604612 | 544.476336025267 |
| 261 | 500.545881048766 | 453.184411472522 | 547.907350625009 |
| 262 | 549.593870025394 | 497.891845248353 | 601.295894802436 |
| 263 | 559.130337414344 | 503.063236076451 | 615.197438752237 |
| 264 | 549.328732507785 | 488.862324108351 | 609.795140907219 |
| 265 | 536.890534304433 | 471.983556805331 | 601.797511803535 |
