| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 399153 | 413491 | -14338 |
| 3 | 385939 | 399153.947841612 | -13214.9478416119 |
| 4 | 373917 | 385939.873600046 | -12022.8736000462 |
| 5 | 364635 | 373917.79479564 | -9282.7947956404 |
| 6 | 364696 | 364635.613657357 | 60.3863426431781 |
| 7 | 418358 | 364695.996008042 | 53662.0039919576 |
| 8 | 428212 | 418354.452567976 | 9857.54743202397 |
| 9 | 423730 | 428211.348347493 | -4481.34834749287 |
| 10 | 420677 | 423730.296248322 | -3053.296248322 |
| 11 | 417428 | 420677.201844137 | -3249.2018441371 |
| 12 | 423245 | 417428.214794861 | 5816.78520513925 |
| 13 | 423113 | 423244.615470005 | -131.615470005258 |
| 14 | 418873 | 423113.008700699 | -4240.00870069879 |
| 15 | 405733 | 418873.280294091 | -13140.2802940913 |
| 16 | 397812 | 405733.868664002 | -7921.86866400158 |
| 17 | 389918 | 397812.523690666 | -7894.52369066561 |
| 18 | 391116 | 389918.521882973 | 1197.47811702749 |
| 19 | 443814 | 391115.92083836 | 52698.0791616396 |
| 20 | 460373 | 443810.516290118 | 16562.4837098825 |
| 21 | 455422 | 460371.90510453 | -4949.90510452952 |
| 22 | 456288 | 455422.327223185 | 865.67277681455 |
| 23 | 452233 | 456287.942773003 | -4054.94277300319 |
| 24 | 459256 | 452233.268059945 | 7022.7319400548 |
| 25 | 461146 | 459255.535748531 | 1890.46425146895 |
| 26 | 451391 | 461145.875027153 | -9754.87502715277 |
| 27 | 443101 | 451391.644865146 | -8290.64486514643 |
| 28 | 438810 | 443101.54806934 | -4291.54806933971 |
| 29 | 430457 | 438810.283701202 | -8353.28370120237 |
| 30 | 435721 | 430457.552210203 | 5263.44778979721 |
| 31 | 488280 | 435720.65204946 | 52559.3479505396 |
| 32 | 505814 | 488276.525461216 | 17537.4745387837 |
| 33 | 502338 | 505812.840650848 | -3474.84065084846 |
| 34 | 500910 | 502338.229711157 | -1428.22971115663 |
| 35 | 501434 | 500910.094415926 | 523.905584073684 |
| 36 | 515476 | 501433.965366194 | 14042.0346338062 |
| 37 | 520862 | 515475.071723759 | 5386.92827624083 |
| 38 | 519517 | 520861.643886541 | -1344.64388654061 |
| 39 | 511805 | 519517.088890321 | -7712.08889032144 |
| 40 | 508607 | 511805.509822762 | -3198.50982276222 |
| 41 | 505327 | 508607.211443765 | -3280.21144376526 |
| 42 | 511435 | 505327.216844811 | 6107.78315518884 |
| 43 | 570158 | 511434.596233015 | 58723.403766985 |
| 44 | 591665 | 570154.117974217 | 21510.8820257833 |
| 45 | 593572 | 591663.577980953 | 1908.42201904673 |
| 46 | 586346 | 593571.873840019 | -7225.87384001934 |
| 47 | 586063 | 586346.477680563 | -283.477680562646 |
| 48 | 591504 | 586063.018739848 | 5440.98126015195 |
| 49 | 594033 | 591503.640313262 | 2529.35968673788 |
| 50 | 585597 | 594032.832791717 | -8435.83279171691 |
| 51 | 572450 | 585597.557667272 | -13147.5576672723 |
| 52 | 562917 | 572450.869145087 | -9533.86914508662 |
| 53 | 554675 | 562917.630255119 | -8242.63025511906 |
| 54 | 553997 | 554675.54489524 | -678.544895239756 |
| 55 | 601310 | 553997.044856541 | 47312.9551434588 |
| 56 | 622255 | 601306.872284303 | 20948.1277156972 |
| 57 | 616735 | 622253.615182931 | -5518.61518293072 |
| 58 | 606480 | 616735.364818881 | -10255.3648188806 |
| 59 | 595079 | 606480.677951006 | -11401.6779510058 |
| 60 | 598588 | 595079.753730284 | 3508.2462697163 |
| 61 | 599917 | 598587.768080499 | 1329.23191950051 |
| 62 | 591573 | 599916.912128517 | -8343.91212851682 |
| 63 | 575489 | 591573.551590677 | -16084.5515906767 |
| 64 | 567223 | 575490.06330083 | -8267.06330083031 |
| 65 | 555338 | 567223.546510434 | -11885.5465104341 |
| 66 | 555252 | 555338.785717364 | -86.7857173638185 |
| 67 | 608249 | 555252.00573714 | 52996.9942628599 |
| 68 | 630859 | 608245.496529749 | 22613.5034702515 |
| 69 | 628632 | 630857.50509 | -2225.50509000011 |
| 70 | 624435 | 628632.147121379 | -4197.14712137892 |
| 71 | 609670 | 624435.277460643 | -14765.2774606425 |
| 72 | 615830 | 609670.976087626 | 6159.02391237358 |
| 73 | 621170 | 615829.592845644 | 5340.40715435578 |
| 74 | 604212 | 621169.646961911 | -16957.6469619107 |
| 75 | 584348 | 604213.121018512 | -19865.1210185123 |
| 76 | 573717 | 584349.313222787 | -10632.3132227875 |
| 77 | 555234 | 573717.702869919 | -18483.7028699192 |
| 78 | 544897 | 555235.221901431 | -10338.2219014312 |
| 79 | 598866 | 544897.683428436 | 53968.3165715643 |
| 80 | 620081 | 598862.432318582 | 21218.5676814178 |
| 81 | 607699 | 620079.597304966 | -12380.5973049663 |
| 82 | 589960 | 607699.818443668 | -17739.8184436676 |
| 83 | 578665 | 589961.172725492 | -11296.1727254923 |
| 84 | 580166 | 578665.746755654 | 1500.25324434624 |
| 85 | 579457 | 580165.900822817 | -708.900822816766 |
| 86 | 571560 | 579457.046863279 | -7897.04686327931 |
| 87 | 560460 | 571560.522049772 | -11100.5220497717 |
| 88 | 551397 | 560460.733821782 | -9063.73382178217 |
| 89 | 536763 | 551397.599175902 | -14634.5991759015 |
| 90 | 540562 | 536763.967448882 | 3798.03255111782 |
| 91 | 588184 | 540561.748923609 | 47622.2510763911 |
| 92 | 607049 | 588180.851837689 | 18868.1481623114 |
| 93 | 598968 | 607047.752684059 | -8079.75268405862 |
| 94 | 577644 | 598968.534127898 | -21324.5341278984 |
| 95 | 562640 | 577645.409700153 | -15005.4097001534 |
| 96 | 565867 | 562640.991962039 | 3226.00803796086 |
| 97 | 561274 | 565866.786738411 | -4592.78673841129 |
| 98 | 554144 | 561274.303615175 | -7130.30361517542 |
| 99 | 539900 | 554144.471362705 | -14244.4713627055 |
| 100 | 526271 | 539900.941658718 | -13629.9416587178 |
| 101 | 511841 | 526271.901034026 | -14430.9010340264 |
| 102 | 505282 | 511841.953983017 | -6559.95398301695 |
| 103 | 554083 | 505282.433658624 | 48800.5663413756 |
| 104 | 584225 | 554079.773942847 | 30145.2260571531 |
| 105 | 568858 | 584223.007190706 | -15365.0071907061 |
| 106 | 539516 | 568859.015733937 | -29343.0157339366 |
| 107 | 521612 | 539517.939777607 | -17905.9397776071 |
| 108 | 525562 | 521613.183707269 | 3948.81629273115 |
| 109 | 526519 | 525561.738955754 | 957.261044246028 |
| 110 | 515713 | 526518.936718381 | -10805.9367183811 |
| 111 | 503454 | 515713.714347641 | -12259.714347641 |
| 112 | 489301 | 503454.810452463 | -14153.8104524626 |
| 113 | 479020 | 489301.935665401 | -10281.9356654006 |
| 114 | 475102 | 479020.679707524 | -3918.67970752367 |
| 115 | 523682 | 475102.259052008 | 48579.740947992 |
| 116 | 551528 | 523678.788540943 | 27849.2114590573 |
| 117 | 531626 | 551526.158973254 | -19900.1589732544 |
| 118 | 511037 | 531627.31553904 | -20590.3155390401 |
| 119 | 492417 | 511038.361163194 | -18621.3611631935 |
| 120 | 492188 | 492418.231001603 | -230.231001602719 |
| 121 | 492865 | 492188.015219872 | 676.984780128056 |
| 122 | 480961 | 492864.955246593 | -11903.9552465933 |
| 123 | 461935 | 480961.786934309 | -19026.7869343094 |
| 124 | 456608 | 461936.257803068 | -5328.2578030685 |
| 125 | 441977 | 456608.352234933 | -14631.3522349327 |
| 126 | 439148 | 441977.967234237 | -2829.96723423671 |
| 127 | 488180 | 439148.187080535 | 49031.8129194654 |
| 128 | 520564 | 488176.758655838 | 32387.2413441617 |
| 129 | 501492 | 520561.858977888 | -19069.8589778882 |
| 130 | 485025 | 501493.26065043 | -16468.2606504305 |
| 131 | 464196 | 485026.08866667 | -20830.0886666704 |
| 132 | 460170 | 464197.377013866 | -4027.37701386644 |
| 133 | 467037 | 460170.266237657 | 6866.73376234341 |
| 134 | 460070 | 467036.546061097 | -6966.54606109654 |
| 135 | 447988 | 460070.460537191 | -12082.4605371912 |
| 136 | 442867 | 447988.798734752 | -5121.79873475176 |
| 137 | 436087 | 442867.338586551 | -6780.33858655102 |
| 138 | 431328 | 436087.448227581 | -4759.44822758087 |
| 139 | 484015 | 431328.31463266 | 52686.68536734 |
| 140 | 509673 | 484011.517043327 | 25661.4829566733 |
| 141 | 512927 | 509671.303597338 | 3255.69640266203 |
| 142 | 502831 | 512926.784775804 | -10095.7847758037 |
| 143 | 470984 | 502831.667401654 | -31847.667401654 |
| 144 | 471067 | 470986.105352518 | 80.8946474819095 |
| 145 | 476049 | 471066.994652301 | 4982.00534769933 |
| 146 | 474605 | 476048.670654765 | -1443.67065476504 |
| 147 | 470439 | 474605.09543668 | -4166.09543668019 |
| 148 | 461251 | 470439.27540791 | -9188.27540791 |
| 149 | 454724 | 461251.607408967 | -6527.60740896728 |
| 150 | 455626 | 454724.431520291 | 901.568479709269 |
| 151 | 516847 | 455625.940400047 | 61221.0595999527 |
| 152 | 525192 | 516842.952861779 | 8349.04713822092 |
| 153 | 522975 | 525191.448069863 | -2216.44806986349 |
| 154 | 518585 | 522975.146522647 | -4390.14652264689 |
| 155 | 509239 | 518585.290219247 | -9346.29021924653 |
| 156 | 512238 | 509239.617854846 | 2998.38214515371 |
| 157 | 519164 | 512237.801786067 | 6926.19821393257 |
| 158 | 517009 | 519163.542130082 | -2154.54213008238 |
| 159 | 509933 | 517009.142430233 | -7076.1424302333 |
| 160 | 509127 | 509933.467782274 | -806.46778227418 |
| 161 | 500857 | 509127.053313135 | -8270.05331313453 |
| 162 | 506971 | 500857.546708095 | 6113.45329190523 |
| 163 | 569323 | 506970.595858179 | 62352.4041418205 |
| 164 | 579714 | 569318.878072029 | 10395.1219279708 |
| 165 | 577992 | 579713.312810077 | -1721.31281007652 |
| 166 | 565464 | 577992.113790759 | -12528.1137907595 |
| 167 | 547344 | 565464.828195534 | -18120.8281955342 |
| 168 | 554788 | 547345.197912889 | 7442.80208711082 |
| 169 | 562325 | 554787.50797897 | 7537.49202102993 |
| 170 | 560854 | 562324.501719306 | -1470.50171930622 |
| 171 | 555332 | 560854.0972104 | -5522.09721040027 |
| 172 | 543599 | 555332.365049067 | -11733.3650490668 |
| 173 | 536662 | 543599.77565711 | -6937.7756571098 |
| 174 | 542722 | 536662.458635267 | 6059.54136473278 |
| 175 | 593530 | 542721.599422133 | 50808.4005778668 |
| 176 | 610763 | 593526.641211027 | 17236.3587889733 |
| 177 | 612613 | 610761.860556696 | 1851.13944330427 |
| 178 | 611324 | 612612.877626796 | -1288.87762679637 |
| 179 | 594167 | 611324.085203783 | -17157.0852037835 |
| 180 | 595454 | 594168.134202768 | 1285.86579723156 |
| 181 | 590865 | 595453.914995319 | -4588.91499531944 |
| 182 | 589379 | 590865.303359226 | -1486.30335922621 |
| 183 | 584428 | 589379.098254999 | -4951.09825499868 |
| 184 | 573100 | 584428.327302061 | -11328.327302061 |
| 185 | 567456 | 573100.748881295 | -5644.74888129509 |
| 186 | 569028 | 567456.373157196 | 1571.6268428039 |
| 187 | 620735 | 569027.896104525 | 51707.1038954749 |
| 188 | 628884 | 620731.581800481 | 8152.41819951881 |
| 189 | 628232 | 628883.461068405 | -651.461068405188 |
| 190 | 612117 | 628232.043066112 | -16115.0430661116 |
| 191 | 595404 | 612118.065316529 | -16714.0653165291 |
| 192 | 597141 | 595405.10491607 | 1735.89508393011 |
| 193 | 593408 | 597140.885245251 | -3732.88524525077 |
| 194 | 590072 | 593408.246769701 | -3336.24676970067 |
| 195 | 579799 | 590072.220549136 | -10273.2205491363 |
| 196 | 574205 | 579799.679131394 | -5594.67913139379 |
| 197 | 572775 | 574205.369847237 | -1430.36984723713 |
| 198 | 572942 | 572775.094557404 | 166.905442595831 |
| 199 | 619567 | 572941.988966388 | 46625.0110336116 |
| 200 | 625809 | 619563.917762198 | 6245.08223780245 |
| 201 | 619916 | 625808.58715659 | -5892.58715658984 |
| 202 | 587625 | 619916.389541031 | -32291.3895410314 |
| 203 | 565742 | 587627.13468564 | -21885.1346856403 |
| 204 | 557274 | 565743.446759753 | -8469.44675975281 |
| 205 | 560576 | 557274.55988939 | 3301.44011061033 |
| 206 | 548854 | 560575.781751826 | -11721.7817518262 |
| 207 | 531673 | 548854.774891373 | -17181.7748913732 |
| 208 | 525919 | 531674.135834929 | -5755.13583492872 |
| 209 | 511038 | 525919.380454542 | -14881.3804545422 |
| 210 | 498662 | 511038.983762843 | -12376.9837628425 |
| 211 | 555362 | 498662.818204787 | 56699.1817952127 |
| 212 | 564591 | 555358.25178938 | 9232.74821061967 |
| 213 | 541657 | 564590.389651071 | -22933.3896510708 |
| 214 | 527070 | 541658.516056703 | -14588.5160567033 |
| 215 | 509846 | 527070.964402467 | -17224.9644024671 |
| 216 | 514258 | 509847.138690056 | 4410.86130994395 |
| 217 | 516922 | 514257.708411362 | 2664.29158863815 |
| 218 | 507561 | 516921.823871779 | -9360.82387177891 |
| 219 | 492622 | 507561.618815622 | -14939.6188156219 |
| 220 | 490243 | 492622.987612804 | -2379.98761280364 |
| 221 | 469357 | 490243.157333749 | -20886.1573337491 |
| 222 | 477580 | 469358.380720396 | 8221.61927960435 |
| 223 | 528379 | 477579.456493732 | 50799.5435062679 |
| 224 | 533590 | 528375.641796541 | 5214.3582034593 |
| 225 | 517945 | 533589.655294624 | -15644.6552946238 |
| 226 | 506174 | 517946.034220623 | -11772.0342206229 |
| 227 | 501866 | 506174.778213411 | -4308.77821341128 |
| 228 | 516141 | 501866.284840235 | 14274.7151597652 |
| 229 | 528222 | 516140.056341957 | 12081.9436580434 |
| 230 | 532638 | 528221.201299418 | 4416.79870058247 |
| 231 | 536322 | 532637.708018859 | 3684.29198114097 |
| 232 | 536535 | 536321.756442652 | 213.243557347567 |
| 233 | 523597 | 536534.985903116 | -12937.9859031164 |
| 234 | 536214 | 523597.855290934 | 12616.1447090659 |
| 235 | 586570 | 536213.165985009 | 50356.8340149907 |
| 236 | 596594 | 586566.67106272 | 10027.32893728 |
| 237 | 580523 | 596593.337123754 | -16070.3371237535 |
| 238 | 564478 | 580524.062361155 | -16046.0623611552 |
| 239 | 557560 | 564479.060756424 | -6919.06075642433 |
| 240 | 575093 | 557560.457398082 | 17532.542601918 |
| 241 | 580112 | 575091.840976884 | 5020.15902311623 |
| 242 | 574761 | 580111.668132541 | -5350.66813254147 |
| 243 | 563250 | 574761.353716411 | -11511.3537164114 |
| 244 | 551531 | 563250.760980615 | -11719.7609806153 |
| 245 | 537034 | 551531.774757786 | -14497.7747577862 |
| 246 | 544686 | 537034.958403836 | 7651.04159616434 |
| 247 | 600991 | 544685.494212889 | 56305.5057871111 |
| 248 | 604378 | 600987.277814105 | 3390.72218589496 |
| 249 | 586111 | 604377.775849659 | -18266.7758496595 |
| 250 | 563668 | 586112.207561045 | -22444.2075610451 |
| 251 | 548604 | 563669.483718362 | -15065.4837183618 |
| 252 | 551174 | 548604.99593335 | 2569.00406665006 |
| 253 | 555654 | 551173.830170947 | 4480.16982905252 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 254 | 555653.703829586 | 518569.976356205 | 592737.431302967 |
| 255 | 555653.703829586 | 503211.126931732 | 608096.280727441 |
| 256 | 555653.703829586 | 491425.634420217 | 619881.773238956 |
| 257 | 555653.703829586 | 481489.926091244 | 629817.481567928 |
| 258 | 555653.703829586 | 472736.353674208 | 638571.053984964 |
| 259 | 555653.703829586 | 464822.497819994 | 646484.909839178 |
| 260 | 555653.703829586 | 457544.942683986 | 653762.464975186 |
| 261 | 555653.703829586 | 450771.150266604 | 660536.257392568 |
| 262 | 555653.703829586 | 444409.058698869 | 666898.348960303 |
| 263 | 555653.703829586 | 438391.637931758 | 672915.769727414 |
| 264 | 555653.703829586 | 432668.285478491 | 678639.122180682 |
| 265 | 555653.703829586 | 427199.688106599 | 684107.719552573 |
