| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 16111 | 16111 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 15554 | 15707.1578701109 | -238.373199379973 | -153.157870110914 | -0.986921520857917 |
| 3 | 15220 | 15218.6513035485 | -383.884414633136 | 1.34869645150119 | -0.423177335931629 |
| 4 | 14807 | 14798.9380024557 | -405.991720781837 | 8.06199754426993 | -0.0601155834183752 |
| 5 | 14291 | 14319.5635578157 | -450.653491371067 | -28.5635578156872 | -0.120062172985029 |
| 6 | 14653 | 14452.3084443312 | -96.9786867596369 | 200.691555668826 | 0.965095209843632 |
| 7 | 17006 | 16376.4963686531 | 1133.22664774101 | 629.503631346893 | 3.36463219893876 |
| 8 | 18032 | 18073.6115885732 | 1476.95745960931 | -41.6115885731824 | 0.939643055324298 |
| 9 | 16558 | 17389.6235623737 | 159.784952585745 | -831.623562373653 | -3.6007543163481 |
| 10 | 16102 | 16306.209108361 | -597.775325595062 | -204.209108360988 | -2.07098473034078 |
| 11 | 15055 | 15129.998262288 | -950.203299777293 | -74.9982622880264 | -0.963447022214848 |
| 12 | 15484 | 15107.3573067672 | -385.063817238757 | 376.642693232765 | 1.54494566606449 |
| 13 | 14596 | 14631.2999875758 | -439.776966494676 | -35.2999875758049 | -0.155811572413377 |
| 14 | 14609 | 14538.3138681418 | -233.792240368364 | 70.6861318581991 | 0.555417886640459 |
| 15 | 13923 | 13964.3068017629 | -428.502934401573 | -41.3068017628532 | -0.532763421081552 |
| 16 | 14226 | 13881.5684467285 | -226.249233735648 | 344.431553271513 | 0.560948789615497 |
| 17 | 14056 | 14121.3654674802 | 48.6043519523156 | -65.3654674802277 | 0.747557502466835 |
| 18 | 14278 | 14718.0301562828 | 369.803650525654 | -440.030156282802 | 0.87359071443628 |
| 19 | 16142 | 15652.4262751348 | 700.682981862367 | 489.573724865233 | 0.904340364865186 |
| 20 | 16509 | 16062.1116478223 | 529.725555583555 | 446.888352177701 | -0.46745750927805 |
| 21 | 15680 | 16202.0329790539 | 300.478961232075 | -522.032979053894 | -0.626665143851145 |
| 22 | 14086 | 14729.7775427686 | -741.969901031038 | -643.777542768558 | -2.84991935974459 |
| 23 | 13129 | 13516.1375713141 | -1018.96061128893 | -387.137571314135 | -0.757261137292597 |
| 24 | 13086 | 12600.3457820511 | -958.494814431646 | 485.654217948936 | 0.165760646756757 |
| 25 | 13096 | 12752.8185669101 | -305.873285658449 | 343.181433089862 | 1.79922547597847 |
| 26 | 12280 | 12183.4481466583 | -459.826902977531 | 96.5518533416634 | -0.419185052997084 |
| 27 | 11534 | 11633.5957472715 | -511.649987773689 | -99.5957472715329 | -0.14144730957299 |
| 28 | 11135 | 10983.8169865584 | -591.53587520212 | 151.183013441618 | -0.220080146055882 |
| 29 | 10903 | 10996.5794851027 | -239.444085129052 | -93.5794851027425 | 0.963125443254666 |
| 30 | 10926 | 11459.0103263149 | 168.544809946282 | -533.010326314908 | 1.11120793443973 |
| 31 | 13220 | 12495.5158426996 | 672.103418589171 | 724.484157300415 | 1.37477375233359 |
| 32 | 13581 | 13090.2127936681 | 627.136946671841 | 490.787206331942 | -0.12293343203697 |
| 33 | 11788 | 12210.1470496663 | -249.519361007476 | -422.147049666256 | -2.39661836819089 |
| 34 | 11088 | 11573.9079909211 | -474.426694345162 | -485.907990921064 | -0.614844356915292 |
| 35 | 10434 | 10946.2435508298 | -563.444471811472 | -512.243550829775 | -0.243479848750701 |
| 36 | 11061 | 10788.1808500101 | -327.996115019945 | 272.819149989945 | 0.645335125416699 |
| 37 | 10828 | 10391.3729268966 | -368.022010200181 | 436.627073103403 | -0.109704267596747 |
| 38 | 10270 | 10025.5118300624 | -366.769540611805 | 244.488169937617 | 0.00341574211670297 |
| 39 | 10360 | 10161.212394288 | -77.5621773780403 | 198.787605712036 | 0.789807501058655 |
| 40 | 9899 | 10013.4815648264 | -117.998197630187 | -114.481564826361 | -0.11099036012648 |
| 41 | 9395 | 9842.8056370354 | -148.497619774408 | -447.805637035404 | -0.0835271133960456 |
| 42 | 9944 | 10568.4738968298 | 357.519265411441 | -624.473896829794 | 1.38070346164405 |
| 43 | 12117 | 11288.1065035551 | 566.738868020702 | 828.893496444931 | 0.571044856465069 |
| 44 | 12474 | 11566.1959204337 | 399.958415670934 | 907.804079566298 | -0.455783469755779 |
| 45 | 11106 | 11515.583617005 | 139.421981347552 | -409.583617005005 | -0.712272522502774 |
| 46 | 10643 | 11221.0014954107 | -111.538778244025 | -578.001495410691 | -0.686195344848816 |
| 47 | 10227 | 10914.722125124 | -224.102575676616 | -687.722125124019 | -0.307984459859276 |
| 48 | 11273 | 10874.7286738301 | -117.628298750157 | 398.271326169866 | 0.291600706259708 |
| 49 | 11516 | 11001.5213496249 | 23.8120236304263 | 514.478650375136 | 0.386963451607012 |
| 50 | 11583 | 11359.5467053627 | 216.708586534797 | 223.453294637319 | 0.526427258011416 |
| 51 | 11605 | 11399.8894636649 | 115.315061012876 | 205.110536335058 | -0.27700784947609 |
| 52 | 11414 | 11519.5880478658 | 117.83622048322 | -105.588047865849 | 0.00690894833108458 |
| 53 | 11181 | 11902.3152932659 | 270.646728568393 | -721.315293265949 | 0.418493495506452 |
| 54 | 12000 | 12643.5715526209 | 542.275914084137 | -643.571552620943 | 0.741989084194113 |
| 55 | 14007 | 13138.7050167535 | 515.1042879864 | 868.294983246495 | -0.0741766198257959 |
| 56 | 14582 | 13535.5495762205 | 446.990196796178 | 1046.45042377946 | -0.186091585198799 |
| 57 | 13251 | 13607.3949600671 | 230.883636712646 | -356.394960067126 | -0.590786032650699 |
| 58 | 12806 | 13426.4038645245 | -6.41250549390088 | -620.403864524543 | -0.648982759629444 |
| 59 | 12645 | 13385.6455844492 | -26.2041684652556 | -740.645584449155 | -0.0541590810089083 |
| 60 | 13869 | 13514.5962976691 | 63.266141397508 | 354.403702330889 | 0.244887436959226 |
| 61 | 13342 | 13098.8460260388 | -212.9966864603 | 243.153973961191 | -0.755284975183637 |
| 62 | 13079 | 12763.6368768164 | -283.337262446099 | 315.363123183575 | -0.192036319146921 |
| 63 | 12513 | 12340.825113847 | -363.410740993439 | 172.174886153029 | -0.218807542946963 |
| 64 | 12331 | 12399.4595633839 | -121.063400788606 | -68.4595633839028 | 0.663611387871732 |
| 65 | 11882 | 12679.0975464531 | 109.507112933329 | -797.097546453118 | 0.631319805918347 |
| 66 | 12388 | 12990.743940572 | 225.906344037854 | -602.743940572004 | 0.318144827313882 |
| 67 | 14394 | 13424.6227726873 | 345.542882632574 | 969.377227312729 | 0.326688808160543 |
| 68 | 14635 | 13541.5158312889 | 214.146640608526 | 1093.48416871112 | -0.358932873228857 |
| 69 | 13218 | 13515.0928976451 | 75.9398715217001 | -297.092897645056 | -0.377807990313956 |
| 70 | 12554 | 13295.2103324355 | -94.0399913671877 | -741.210332435505 | -0.464951582079873 |
| 71 | 12031 | 12906.7847169163 | -263.283787139395 | -875.784716916332 | -0.46314290039223 |
| 72 | 12429 | 12071.4053365642 | -592.41861001942 | 357.594663435795 | -0.900535265814594 |
